The New England Patriots signed Jeff Thomas, Wide Receiver, out of the University of Miami (FL) as an undrafted free agent following the NFL Draft.
Biography
Jeff Thomas is 5’9” and 170 pounds. Thomas was a highly touted, top-five wide receiver recruit out of high school. He played three years at Miami and will be 23 years old at the beginning of the 2020 NFL season. Thomas has had a bumpy ride to the NFL Draft. Late in the 2018 season he was kicked off the football team, this despite being the Hurricanes’ leading receiver. He was allowed to come back in 2019 but was suspended for two games for violating team rules. Thomas ranked third in all-purpose yards for the Hurricanes in 2019.
College Production
Jeff Thomas broke out at the age of 20 (age during their first season with a 20% receiving dominator rating) in his second season at Miami. Thomas’ best season was his sophomore season at 21 years old. Thomas had 36 receptions, for 563 receiving yards, and three scrimmage touchdowns for a receiving dominator rating (average percentage of their team’s receiving yards and receiving touchdowns) of 20.8% (18th percentile). Thomas had unexciting age-adjusted production. He averaged 460.0 scrimmage yards (26th percentile) and 2.7 scrimmage touchdowns (23rd percentile) per season for an average scrimmage dominator rating (average percentage of their team’s scrimmage yards and scrimmage touchdowns) per season of 7.8% (23rd percentile). Thomas was efficient from a yards per reception standpoint averaging 16.8 yards per reception (82nd percentile). However, within the Hurricanes offense, his efficiency was unimpressive. He averaged 0.55 scrimmage yards per team play (29th percentile). Conversely, he delivered on special teams. He had 68 returns, for 1,484 return yards, and one return touchdown.
Athleticism
Jeff Thomas has an unimpressive height-adjusted speed score of 82.0 (15th percentile) after running a 4.45-second 40-yard time at the NFL Combine. He has a great burst score of 124.6 (71st percentile). Thomas is a small receiver that relies on speed and quickness to win against defenders. While he’s fast overall, he doesn’t have the same gear as other wide receivers that are his size. Due to his lack of size and strength, his game consists of short passes around the line of scrimmage and stretching the field vertically.
NFL Landing Spot
This is one of the messier spots in football for the time being. Currently, their quarterback options are the relatively unknown commodity of 2019 fourth round pick Jarrett Stidham or career back-up Brian Hoyer. Hoyer is…less than exciting. Stidham’s draft profile suggests it might not be the end of the world like some fans claim, but he still remains a large unknown. Julian Edelman accrued the fourth most targets of all wide receivers last year with 153 and easily led the team with a 25% target share. The next closest receiver, Phillip Dorsett (no longer with the team), had 100 fewer targets than Edelman. Sophomore receiver N’Keal Harry (and a first-round draft pick) might actually benefit from Brady’s departure, as the two never seemed to be able to get on the same page last year. The team also has Mohammed Sanu. Of most concern to an incoming rookie is the amount of targets to the running back position. James White, Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead combined for 25% of the team’s targets last year. The Patriots ran the third most plays last season and passed on 59.2% of plays. That volume might regress without Brady, but even with regression towards the norm, they should have serviceable volume. A rookie might find 2019 crowded as the team has established vets in most positions. But worth noting is that White, Burkhead, and Sanu will all be UFAs after 2020. The Patriots can also move on from Edelman after this season. A crowded target field in 2020 could become shockingly open in 2021. Drafted rookies might be worth a stash here.
Analysis
Jeff Thomas had mediocre age-adjusted production, middling athleticism, and will have to win with speed and quickness out of the slot in the NFL. He has strong hands and should be able to create plenty of yards after the catch or use his speed to stretch NFL defenses. The New England Patriots didn’t invest a lot of guaranteed money when they signed Thomas. Thomas will need to stay out of trouble if he wants a chance to fulfill any of the promise he had coming out of high school. He landed on a wide-open Patriots depth chart with no established wide receivers behind N’Keal Harry, Julian Edelman, and Mohamad Sanu. His special-teams ability could also help him land an initial roster spot because New England does not have an established returner at the moment.
Jeff Thomas is a solid target at the end of the fourth round in 14-team dynasty leagues and in the fifth round of 12-team leagues. Thomas landed on a soft depth chart but New England doesn’t have much invested in Thomas. However, historically the Patriots are a friendly location for undrafted free agents. If fantasy managers do not have an available roster spot for Thomas, keep an eye out for positive reports out of training camp. As a former five-star prospect, he could be a low-cost investment that could provide decent value to dynasty rosters.
Follow me to the moon and back, @ff_spaceman on Twitter, in my quest into unexplored spreadsheets and dynasty football analysis. If you enjoyed the advanced metrics discussed in this article you can explore them yourself in my college prospect database. I also co-authored over 40 rookie wide receiver articles from the NFL Draft and you can check those out and the rest of my writings on www.dynastyfootballfactory.com. Stay tuned for more undrafted rookie wide receiver articles from me over the next several days in your quest to find the next Adam Thielen. You can listen to my podcast @ATaleofTwoRivals with @ff_walrus and @ff_banterman.
Information found in this article was gathered from @ff_spaceman’s College Prospect Database, PlayerProfiler.com, Sports-Reference.com, AirYards.com, and a prospect’s college team website.
