Linebackers are the core of any IDP league. No position is as reliable and consistent as the LB group. A lot of the time with linebackers, we know who the studs are going to be right from the draft and usually, a highly touted LB can start and produce from day one. These highly-regarded linebackers can be tough to get your hands on as any savvy IDP player will snag them up early in rookie drafts. In 2019 we saw both Devin Bush and Devin White, highly touted rookies, produce at an elite level from the get-go. But just like all positions, there are players that are out of the spotlight you should be targeting.
So, who to target? There aren’t as many metrics to check for predicting a linebacker breakout opposed to a WR, but there are a few. A big one is snap share; you can’t score if you’re not on the field. Look for LB’s that posted at least a 60% snap share as a rookie. The second metric is solo tackles per game. Target LB’s that are posting at least three solo tackles a game, as this seems to be the line where an LB is fantasy relevant or not. Elite LB’s collect 5+ solo tackles a game, LB1’s are in the 4+ range, and LB2’s in the 3+ range. Lastly, missed tackles are a good metric to keep an eye on. For example, Eric Kendricks is consistently a solid LB2 with LB1 upside who collects a 98% snap share and collecting 4.3 solo tackles per game while missing 8.3% of his tackles. IDP stud Bobby Wagner logs a 99% snap share while racking up 4.6 solo tackles a game while only missing on 5.9% of his tackles. As snap shares increase, as will solo tackles per game. Meaning that if we target rookies already earning a 60% share of snaps while averaging 3+ solo’s a game, it is highly likely that in their sophomore season they will see both categories increase. These three criteria in conjunction can give insight to a young player’s future production.
Greenlaw is my favorite LB buy low right now. A mid-fifth-round pick, Dre didn’t see a lot of the field at first. In the first eight games, Dre started three and posted 14 combined tackles, one sack, and one tackle for loss. Over the final eight games, Dre started all eight, posted 56 solo tackles (87 comb.), one sack, and three tackles for loss. Greenlaw saw an 81.1% snap share and averaged four solo tackles per game in 2019 trailing only Devin White for the rookie lead. He led ALL ILB in missed tackle percentage at 2.1%
Greenlaw was also the man responsible for two game-changing plays versus division rival Seattle. In Week 10 Dre picked off Russel Wilson in OT at the goal line, returning it 47 yards to give SF a chance to kick a game-winning field goal. In Week 17 Greenlaw denied Hollister and the Seahawks’ divisional hopes at the one-yard-line with a fantastic hit. Dre doesn’t have the physical metrics, but he has intuition as is shown by his missed tackle percentage and big-time plays.
Cole, also a fifth-round pick in last year’s draft, was a day one starter for the abysmal 2019 Washington defense. He went on to collect 63 solo tackles (101 comb.), only bested by Devin Bush for rookies. Holcomb earned a 67.1% snap share and averaged 3.9 solo tackles a game, ranking third just behind Greenlaw. Cole did miss 12 tackles (10.3%) which is a bit high but is slightly lower than IDP stud Blake Martinez at 10.5%. Holcomb gives you a great floor at a great price for an LB2 with his tackles alone. That is good, seeing as he only mustered a lone sack as well as a single pass defended and no interceptions. Even while lacking in these areas, Cole finished above other LB such as Roquan Smith and Benardrick McKinney. If Holcomb can add these big plays to his consistent tackles, he can go from a solid LB2 to a fringe LB1.
Wilson is another fifth-round LB who showed up his rookie year. He didn’t get the start until Week 3 replacing the new Green Bay Packer Christian Kirksey who was placed on IR due to a pectoral. Once Wilson saw the field, he hardly came off of it. Mack played every defensive snap in 11 of his 14 starts, only dropping below a 90% snap share one time (89% in Week 8). Wilson went on to tally 51 solo tackles (81 total), averaging out to 3.4 per game. Mack also saw success against the pass, intercepting one pass and batting six others. Wilson is another LB to have on your radar as he might be overlooked completely in drafts, yet will likely produce in his sophomore year.
Thanks for reading. Find me on twitter @Dushanes_ to discuss your fantasy questions and any feedback you have!
