Unless we’re analyzing workhorse running backs or alpha wide receivers, a player’s usage can fluctuate from week to week. Some will shine and some will ruin your week. Remember, targets and opportunities are earned. In this series, I will provide weekly target shares, rushing attempt shares, and snap shares of SIX players (or group of players) to help you understand the value of each of them and decide whether to start ‘em, roster ‘em, or trade ‘em.
Dallas Cowboys RB Room
Ezekiel Elliott vs Tony Pollard
Snap Share: 70% vs 38%
Rushing Attempts Share: 45.9% vs 29.7%
Target Share: 11.5% vs 3.8%
Weighted opportunities: 25.5 vs 13.8
Ezekiel Elliott is a divisive fantasy RB. You either hate him or love him. Elliott had a hard time in Week 1, not even scoring six fantasy points in the NFL Kickoff game. Since then, he has been RB10 and RB3, not bad for a washed RB. The problem for Zeke is that his backup RB is very, very good. Tony Pollard is the third-best RB in terms of rushing yards over expected per attempt and has been earning snaps week-to-week. This week was a make it or break it week for Ezekiel and I believe he proved the haters wrong. Pollard won’t disappear. He is going to have over 35% snap share game by game, but Ezekiel will survive it. Elliott had six red zone carries this week and he was a half-yard away from scoring another TD. I don’t think there’s a buy window at this moment, but you should be monitoring the situation. If in any given week Pollard outscores Zeke, without any important movement to the shares I just presented, you will have your buy window.
D’Andre Swift (RB – DET)
Snap Share: 56%
Rushing Attempts Share: 51.8%
Target Share: 23.3%
Weighted Opportunities: 33.8
My dream is to see D’Andre Swift with over 70% snap share. Imagine what that could be. I don’t believe we will see that happen soon. Jamaal Williams has been good and will demand a good number of snaps each week. Nevertheless, Swift has shown us he doesn’t need that many snaps to be a fantasy superstar. His target share is astronomical and he is the fourth-best back in total weighted opportunities this season. Swift was a steal in fantasy drafts and he has the upside to be the fantasy RB1 if Detroit’s staff suddenly decides to give him more playing time (over 70%).
Damien Harris (RB – NE)
Snap Share: 31%
Rushing Attempts Share: 35.3%
Target Share: 3.9%
Weighted Opportunities: 11.7
I’m worried, very worried, about Damien Harris‘ usage this season. He started the season with over 50% snap share, over 75% rushing attempts, and three targets in Week 1. Since that game, his usage has plummeted and even Brandon Bolden had more snaps and targets last week. I would expect to see him more on the field due to the injury to James White, but Belichick has given us no reason to believe that. Week 4 is very important to prove or disprove this belief. I hate this kind of uncertainty, especially when the coach is Bill Belichick. Therefore, I’ve been trying to sell my only share since last week. Don’t undersell him but be aware that there’s a real risk that this is his season-long usage and that you are stuck with a TD-dependent RB on your team. Remember to use the James White injury as a sell-bait.
Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF)
Snap Share: 75%
Targets: 10
Target Share: 23.3%
Team Air Yards: 39.27%
Buy, buy, buy. I could literally write zero words in this paragraph and convince you with only the stats. Josh Allen returned to his 2020 form and Stefon will do it next week. He is the league leader in 2021 air yards. Remember my Justin Jefferson words one week ago? He broke out last week. Try to buy Stefon before it’s too late, there’s always a guy who gets angry at three bad weeks.
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Room
Marvin Jones Jr.: 97% snap share, 8 targets, 23.5% target share, 21.38% team air yards
Laviska Shenault: 65% snap share, 4 targets, 11.8% target share, 9% team air yards
DJ Chark: 87% snap share, 6 targets, 17.6% target share, 38.79% team air yards
I’m an official member of the “I hate Urban Meyer club”. I don’t understand his Laviska usage, and I don’t believe he has placed Trevor Lawrence in the best spot to shine. I have been a Laviska truther since before the season started, but now I’m benching him until the usage changes. Marvin Jones Jr. has been Trevor’s favorite receiver and he should be a weekly starter in your lineups. He is an interesting player to trade for in a package. A lot of people disrespect him and see Marvin Jones as an afterthought. You can take advantage of this and own Lawrence’s WR1. Remember T-Law is a rookie QB and his performance will continue to improve as the season passes.
DJ Chark is a player that confuses me. He had an amazing season two years ago and then a BAD season last year. I still think he should be displaced on the depth chart by Laviska, but this hasn’t happened yet. In 2021, he has one more target and has way more air yards than Laviska (32% to 10%). I’m holding my only share, but I would still see if there are Chark truthers in my league and package him to get an underperforming player such as Allen Robinson.
Miami Dolphins WR/TE Room
DeVante Parker: 77% snap share, 7 targets, 14.3% target share, 36.68% team air yards
Will Fuller: 61% snap share, 6 targets, 12.2% target share, 34.06% team air yards
Jaylen Waddle: 88% snap share, 13 targets, 26.5% target share, 10% team air yards
Mike Gesicki: 66% snap share, 12 targets, 24.5% target share, 24.49% team air yards
Durham Smythe: 41% snap share, 1 target, 2.0% target share, 0% team air yards
Week 3 was the first time we got to see the entire receiving room of the Miami Dolphins. Sadly it was without their starting QB and with a disappointing offensive line. Their ceiling is obviously lowered because of these two facts, but still, there could be some value to be found. Parker will continue to be a depth guy in your fantasy teams. He will hardly pass the 12 points threshold in a lot of weeks and he is honestly not worth that much with virtually no upside. Will Fuller came in and demanded six targets and the second most air yards in his first week back. He did this with less than an entire week of training. This speaks a lot about how important he could be to this offense during the season. His deep reception threat will open up spaces in the middle and short route areas. His fantasy stat-line wasn’t amazing and you can still acquire him cheap. I’m not too excited with Brissett there, but he could still be a good flex option throughout the season.
Waddle’s usage was weird. He had only 10% of the air yards but was targeted 13 TIMES. He caught the ball 12 times for a boring 58 yards and no touchdowns. This usage is obviously a PPR goldmine and it’s something important to monitor. If his air yards improve and the targets stay in the 25% share zone, we could be talking about a weekly starter in your team and possibly a league-winning WR.
And no, I’m not leaving without talking about Gesicki. Week 3 was his official resurrection. After an awful start, Gesicki came back and had 18.6 fantasy points, establishing himself as the TE3 in Week 3. It’s interesting that with the arrival of Fuller his targets increased instead of decreased. It’s important to remember this was a week where Jacoby Brissett attempted almost 50 passes in a game that went to OT. We shouldn’t expect this number of targets for Gesicki, but if next week he stays over 18-20% share, he will be an easy start every week.
Hey, thanks for reading the article. My DMs are always open to any question, critic, or fantasy advice in any format. You can find me on Twitter @MisterMartinez9. Please consider our yearly DFF subscription.
