A much-overlooked aspect of Dynasty is value comparison, or comparing the values of Dynasty players to Redraft players and seeing which is worth more or less. You might be thinking, “Well, duh! Of course, older players are worth less in Dynasty than Redraft!” to which I agree. But what about Daniel Jones (QB – NYG), who is only 25 years old? Should he be worth more in Redraft or Dynasty? Or how about Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET), who in Redraft has an ADP of WR10, but in Dynasty, he’s valued as WR6. Which side more appropriately values players? In this series, which will take place over eight parts (one part for each division), I’ll be evaluating every skill position player on every team and giving my thoughts on their value, whether they are overvalued compared to Redraft or undervalued. Usually, the appropriate value will be somewhere in the middle.
Some ground rules – so this series doesn’t take centuries, I’ll be evaluating one QB, one RB, one TE, and two WRs from each team, giving a total of 20 players every article. I’ll post their Redraft ADP (sourced from Underdog) and their Dynasty ADP (sourced from AdeikoADP, @Adeiko_FF on Twitter). Since there isn’t a large enough sample size of Superflex Redraft ADP, I’ll be evaluating by positional rank, not true ADP. For example, if I state that Patrick Mahomes’ ADP is QB1, that does not mean he is selected at the 1.01 in Redraft. That means he is the first QB taken off the board.
I’ll then pick whether the player’s value lies closer to his Redraft ADP, Dynasty ADP, or somewhere in the middle.
Let’s continue.
Detroit Lions
QB: Jared Goff
Redraft ADP: QB17
Dynasty ADP: QB18
- Goff seems to be pretty universally priced as a low-end QB two, which is exactly the type of numbers he produces at this point in his career. He’s priced back-to-back with Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN) for good reason – they’re both older pocket passers with decent situations who should produce QB2 numbers for at least this season. I prefer Kirk to Goff, but I prefer other targets over both in later rounds, which I will highlight when I discuss Cousins.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs
Redraft ADP: RB14
Dynasty ADP: RB5
- Redraft has a great habit of never appreciating rookie RBs, even when they’re drafted in the first round and continue to surprise every year. Gibbs, while perhaps not seeing a bell-cow workload in the NFL, prospects as a truly elite pass-catcher, which is the type of production we chase in fantasy football. His Dynasty price is just about perfect.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
TE: Sam LaPorta
Redraft ADP: TE20
Dynasty ADP: TE12
- LaPorta’s Redraft price makes sense, as rookie tight ends rarely produce in year one. I like him as a prospect and think TE12 is a reasonable price to grab a rookie TE. I prefer him at price compared to Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF), as Kincaid’s price has skyrocketed from reasonable to overpriced. LaPorta has a good prospect profile, which you can read more about here in this article from @DocFFFN.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Redraft ADP: WR10
Dynasty ADP: WR6
- I thought last season would have silenced the discourse about whether Amon-Ra St. Brown is a ‘real NFL wide receiver,’ but here we are again, with people talking themselves out of a good player. 28.1% target share, 32.3% TPRR, 2.57 YPRR; what more could you want from him? His position as WR6 is perfect.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR2: Jameson Williams
Redraft ADP: WR49
Dynasty ADP: WR28
- Williams was a good prospect coming from college and just hasn’t shown us anything quite yet in the league (you can read his prospect profile here in this article from @force_fantasy). It’s too small of a sample size of NFL games to create a take for him, so he may as well be a rookie. If we consider him akin to a rookie, Jameson is going as the ‘rookie’ WR4, which is a fine investment. Still, you have to consider that not only does he have to recover from his injury fully, but that also his skillset is not indicative of fantasy points, as deep threats seem to be more useful to NFL teams than fantasy teams.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
Minnesota Vikings
QB: Kirk Cousins
Redraft ADP: QB13
Dynasty ADP: QB17
- As I said above with Goff, Kirk is priced like he will give you 18PPG for at least one more year, which he should. But I think I prefer guys going one or more rounds later, like Geno Smith (QB – SEA) or even Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR), to give you similar production (or better, in Geno’s case) for cheaper.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Redraft ADP: RB20
Dynasty ADP: RB27
- Dalvin Cook (RB – FA) is gone, and the Mattison dream seems to have finally materialized. We’ve seen Mattison be very efficient on small sample sizes, so now it’s time to see if that can materialize into a full workload. I’m still okay with buying Mattison at his current price, but his ADP has skyrocketed in Redraft and Dynasty to the point where I doubt I’ll be giving the same advice one month from now. He is only 25 years old, so while you’re buying him at RB3 prices, he’s almost guaranteed to outperform his ADP for at least this season.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
TE: T.J. Hockenson
Redraft ADP: TE3
Dynasty ADP: TE4
- I could write an entire article about Hockenson alone, so I’ll give you the SparkNotes and refer you to episode eight of The Factory Tour hosted by @PaulDFF, where he and @ChrisMiles1017 discussed Hockenson at length. Last season, after being traded to the Vikings, Hockenson demanded a 22% target share, which isn’t exactly elite for TEs, as Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) had a 28% TS, Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) had a 27% TS, and Travis Kelce (TE – KC) had a 25% TS. Even Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR) had a higher TS than Hockenson. We also have historical data with Hockenson, as this is his fourth year in the league, and he has had 14% TS, 18% TS, and 21% target shares before this. It’s plausible his target share could keep increasing, but it seems like 20-22% is about where his target share lies. Again, not exactly elite, but not bad, more like mediocre. Go listen to the pod for deeper analysis; you won’t regret it.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Justin Jefferson
Redraft ADP: WR1
Dynasty ADP: WR1
- Unquestioned. Next.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
WR2: Jordan Addison
Redraft ADP: WR36
Dynasty ADP: WR20
- There are a lot of pass attempts to go around in Minnesota, who ranked third in the league with 39.6 attempts/game. While Adam Thielen’s (WR – CAR) vacated targets don’t exist, we can expect Addison, if he hits, to demand a good number of targets. But his upside will be permanently capped by playing next to Jefferson (see Tee Higgins (WR – CIN)). Still, he’s a good bet to increase in value from his current ADP. The market has loved young wide receivers for the last three years.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
Green Bay Packers
QB: Jordan Love
Redraft ADP: QB20
Dynasty ADP: QB22
- Love is one of the most overpriced assets in all of Dynasty. Again, I will refer you to The Factory Tour, this time episode three, as @PaulDFF and @FantasyBluechip have a wonderful discussion about why Love is overpriced. Paraphrasing, at best, he has a Daniel Jones (QB – NYG) arc, where a sudden breakout vaults his price all the way to the … fourth round of startups while being much less of a gifted runner compared to Jones. Love has to become one of the best passers in the league with one of the worst receiving cores in the league in one season in order to gain value. Hard pass.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
RB: Aaron Jones
Redraft ADP: RB17
Dynasty ADP: RB26
- I’m quite confused by Jones’ pricing. The bad – the days of him scoring 19 touchdowns in a season are long behind us, he probably will hover around the seven-touchdown mark he achieved last season, he’s almost 29 years old, he had 213 rushes to AJ Dillon’s (RB – GB) 186. The good – he was more efficient than Dillon (Jones’ 5.3ypc to Dillon’s 4.1ypc), he caught more passes than Dillon (Jones’ 59 to Dillon’s 28), he had more PPG than Dillon (Jones’ 14.6 (RB11) to Dillon’s 9.9 (RB37). The wheels haven’t fallen off for Jones yet, and Dillon doesn’t seem to be a significant threat. At this price, I’m still buying.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
TE: Luke Musgrave
Redraft ADP: TE29
Dynasty ADP: TE18
- Using the same logic I used for LaPorta, since both were selected in the second round just eight picks apart, rookie tight ends rarely produce in Year 1, hence his Redraft ADP. I’m buying Musgrave and LaPorta at the current price, but obviously, Musgrave’s situation looks a little bleaker than LaPorta’s with Love at the helm. That said, he has a very weak depth chart ahead of him. You can read more about Musgrave’s profile here in this article from @puma_drew.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Christian Watson
Redraft ADP: WR21
Dynasty ADP: WR18
- Watson was a pretty bad prospect who surprised a lot of people (including myself) in Year 1, posting some tantalizing efficiency metrics once he returned from injury, like a 13.8 aDOT and a 2.40 YPRR. However, his target share was pretty lackluster, and he no longer benefits from Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ) throwing him the ball. Instead, Watson has to rely on the likes of Jordan Love. While he may be the focal point of the offense, and his year two comps look promising, I’m lower than the market on him and think it will be difficult for him to overcome this offense. I prefer to chase target share numbers than efficiency metrics myself.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
WR2: Romeo Doubs
Redraft ADP: WR60
Dynasty ADP: WR65
- We see players have good small sample stretches, and they rarely turn into anything. Doubs is a jag.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Chicago Bears
QB: Justin Fields
Redraft ADP: QB6
Dynasty ADP: QB8
- No matter my opinion of Fields, I can’t deny the rushing production and overall upside. He’s my QB8 overall, so his Dynasty ADP hits the nail right on the head for me.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
RB: D’Onta Foreman
Redraft ADP: RB52
Dynasty ADP: RB52
- Foreman is the cheapest potential RB who will lead a backfield you’ll be able to draft, and somehow his ADPs are exactly the same. We may see a split backfield with him and Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI), so I’m drafting both since Herbert’s ADP is only RB40 in Dynasty. They’re both worth dart throw picks due to the upside they both still have, as seemingly neither has won the job. The talent may not be there for either of them, but the situation definitely is.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
TE: Cole Kmet
Redraft ADP: TE15
Dynasty ADP: TE16
- Kmet has never, and probably will never, do anything in the NFL. If you want a late-round breakout TE who has good draft capital and has never produced in the NFL, grab Noah Fant (TE – SEA) six rounds later.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: DJ Moore
Redraft ADP: WR26
Dynasty ADP: WR22
- Moore is perhaps the most polarizing player in Dynasty this season, with some believing that he’s playing with the best quarterback of his career in Justin Fields, and others believing he won’t be able to overcome the Chicago Bears’ passing rate of 22.2 attempts per game, which ranks 32nd in the league. I think Fields and the Bears’ offense would have to take large steps in the right direction to make Moore a usable Dynasty-wide receiver, or at least more useful than he has been in the past on the Carolina Panthers. Interestingly, you’d think his ADPs would be flipped, as Moore is no spring chicken at 26 years old and seems to be tied to the Bears for the foreseeable future. In my opinion, it looks like the DJ Moore dream will never materialize, so I lean closer to Redraft ADP being closer to his value.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
WR2: Darnell Mooney
Redraft ADP: WR57
Dynasty ADP: WR58
- I never believe in investing in very late-round wide receivers, and Mooney is the only one going this late who is this young and has shown us some semblance of being able to play in the NFL, posting back-to-back 25%+ target shares the last two seasons. While I don’t think he’ll be able to outperform the Bears’ offense, as I discussed above, he’s on the last year of his contract in Chicago, so literally any offense is an upgrade for Mooney if he becomes a free agent or is traded. At this price, I’m fine with a dart throw on Mooney in the 13th. Surprisingly, his Redraft ADP is higher than his Dynasty ADP even though his future this season looks extremely bleak, but I have to side with Redraft.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
Thanks so much for reading! For other informative Dynasty articles, make sure to stay tuned at Dynastyfootballfactory.com. If you liked this article, follow me on Twitter @716DFF, and the whole DFF team @DFF_Dynasty. Check out this thread for some other Dynasty tips, and click here for all of my other articles! Have an amazing day! Cheers!
