Crushing the Narrative

There’s no doubt that narratives can take on a life of their own in the Twitter Dynasty community. And while some narratives do have merit, others can be exaggerated or aren’t as grounded in fact. Dynasty owners must think for themselves and evaluate players based on analytics, talent, and situation. Don’t blindly follow the narratives you see on Twitter because they’re popular. Do your research, trust your process, and #PlantYourFlag on the players you believe in. With that said, I’m here to dispel a few of these claims and show you another side of the story. So, let’s dive in and “crush” our first narrative! 

Narrative #1: Kenneth Walker is still an RB1 in Dynasty

This offseason, RB Rashaad Penny left for Philadelphia, leaving this backfield wide open for Kenneth Walker heading into 2023. Walker was expected to be the clear starter regardless, but Penny’s high efficiency when healthy was a slight cause for concern. So when Penny left, Kenneth Walker owners were through the roof, excited to see a big jump from him in Year 2. 

Cue the 2023 NFL Draft, when the Seattle Seahawks elected to draft Zach Charbonnet in the second round (pick 52). They also grabbed Kenny McIntosh, Georgia RB, in the seventh round to further crowd this backfield. Charbonnet was the consensus RB3 in this draft class and a highly touted prospect. The landing spot was a frustrating one for Walker and Charbonnet owners alike.  

Walker’s Dynasty stock has taken a hit since the draft, but not as much as it should have. According to Bulletproof, he is still ranked the RB9 in Dynasty, going at the 4.07 spot in June startups (SF, PPR, 4-point pass TD league). He’s going ahead of guys like Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, and Tony Pollard. 

Walker never was a pass-catcher in college, as he had just 19 receptions in three seasons between Wake Forest and Michigan State. While he did make some strides in this department as a rookie in the NFL, he still didn’t get much volume (35 targets and 27 receptions in 15 games). On the other hand, Charbonnet was known for his elite ability as a pass-catcher in college. He totaled 61 receptions for 518 yards during his two seasons at UCLA. Because of his superior pass-catching resume, I would not be surprised if Charbonnet is used as the passing down back in Seattle next season.

On top of this, Seattle is slightly more pass-heavy. They ranked 15th in pass attempts and 23rd in rush attempts in 2022. In addition, they still have D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round, and just signed Geno Smith to a 3-year, $75M extension. All signs point to Seattle airing it out a ton in 2023. 

In the best-case scenario, I think Walker will receive 60% of the total touches in this backfield in 2023. Keep in mind Seattle only had 350 rush attempts by RBs last season. If RB touches remain stable at 350, that’s 210 attempts for Walker, which is 18 fewer attempts than last year. On top of that, we may see a regression in the limited receiving action Walker provided in 2022, assuming Charbonnet takes over that role. I’m not taking Walker near the 4th round in startup drafts this offseason. I would much rather have all the RBs I listed above. Barring an injury to Charbonnet, Walker will not finish as an RB1 this season; there’s not enough volume for him. I get that he’s only 22, but I’m not drafting an RB solely on age. 

Narrative #2: Derek Carr is a QB3 

Derek Carr has a current ADP of QB25 (9.08) in Dynasty, going after unproven names like Kenny Pickett and Jordan Love and well after Jared Goff (QB18, 6.05). 

Frankly, I don’t understand what the Derek Carr hate is all about. This guy is a model of consistency. He’s a guaranteed mid-QB2 for your team. Carr has never finished below QB20 in his 9-year career, yet he’s going as the QB25 now?

New Orleans just signed Carr to a 4-year, $150M contract this offseason. $100M is guaranteed, and the Saints don’t have a reasonable out until after 2024. This means Carr has at least two years left as a starter in the NFL. And he’ll likely be around much longer than this, as he’s only 32. That’s younger than Russell Wilson and Geno Smith, who are both going two rounds ahead of him. (I’m a Russ fan myself and am expecting a bounceback year. But I also don’t think Carr is two full rounds worse than him.)

Another big positive: Carr never gets hurt. He’s only missed three games due to injury in nine years. That’s an excellent track record. Over his career, Carr has had an average finish of QB16 overall. The QB16 in Dynasty ADP right now is Daniel Jones, going at 4.08. I’d much rather take Carr five rounds later as a serviceable QB2 option (or incredible QB3). He’s going to give you, at minimum, two more QB2 seasons in his NFL career. Don’t let the Dynasty community tell you this guy is washed. He’s not.

Narrative #3: Bryce Young is a tier below Anthony Richardson

I know this will cause some heads to turn, but this is what the DFF team means when we say #PlantYourFlag. The overwhelming majority of the Dynasty community would prefer Anthony Richardson over Bryce Young. And I’m sure many would chime in with the overused phrase, “It’s not particularly close.”  

I just grabbed Bryce Young at the 3.06 in a Dynasty Superflex mock with the DFF team and wanted to get ahead of this. (The current ADP for Young on BulletProof in June drafts in 2.11, which is closer to fair value, in my opinion.) But in this draft, Richardson went 18 spots ahead of Bryce, which is absurd. We’re fading the #1 overall pick in the 2023 Draft on what grounds? 

First, let’s look at Bryce Young’s sophomore Heisman season, as he played a full year in 2021:

• 2nd in the nation in pass yards (first in Power 5)
• 2nd in the nation in pass TDs (first in Power 5)
• 7th in the nation in passer rating (9th in 2022; back-to-back top-10 seasons)

It’s almost indisputable that Bryce is the best QB in Alabama history. I’d argue he’s a top-15 QB in CFB history as well. He holds the Alabama record for single-season passing yards and passing TDs and is second in career passing yards and passing TDs.

The most prominent case for Richardson being so heavily favored over Young is the unlimited rushing upside he brings to the table. He won’t need to throw 30+ pass TDs per season to become an elite Dynasty QB option, which I understand. And if I had to choose, I’m probably taking ARich over Young in Dynasty. But there’s not a large gap here by any means. 

For those that claim Bryce Young has no rushing upside, I’m not sure how else to say this: the kid is fast. He didn’t run at the Combine but is estimated to have 4.58 speed, which is in the 90th percentile for this QB class. Young ran for 231 yards and 4 TDs in 12 games last season, excluding kneel-downs and sacks. He can run for the first if required but typically uses his speed and elusiveness to extend plays and make that big throw downfield. Let’s take a look at a couple of plays to see what I mean: 

In the past 15 seasons, 8/10 QBs drafted first overall have had a QB1 finish. 6/10 have had multiple QB1 finishes, soon to be 7/10 with Trevor Lawrence. Translation: these NFL scouts know what they’re doing. This is much less of a gamble than Richardson is, who has yet to show us he has the passing ability to hack it as an NFL starter. One could argue Richardson’s fantasy ceiling is higher than Bryce Young, but I’m not sure that’s the case. Bryce should have a similar rushing upside to Mahomes and Burrow. Four of the consensus top-8 Dynasty QBs are “pocket passers” by today’s definition (Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence). Bryce has a first-round startup ceiling, and he doesn’t need to run for 500+ yards in a season to achieve this. He’s an elite talent and should be viewed in the same tier as Anthony Richardson. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @DynastySavant. Until next time, keep grinding out there, Dynasty family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding