Anticipating and acting on scheme change is a risk/reward proposition in fantasy football. Correctly anticipating an edge defender’s new role in a defense can deliver a difference-maker at the most valuable IDP position. There, I said it! The value above replacement for a high-end DE is greater than that for linebackers through much of the spectrum of IDP scoring formats. Meanwhile, an edge defender changed to OLB is all but negated as an IDP asset in most formats. Your writer did not lightly recommend DE Myles Garrett as an IDP buy in Part 1 of this series of articles on defensive scheme change. The Browns’ incoming defensive coordinator Joe Woods led a 3-4 defense in Denver in 2018. Part 1 explains why I would not discount Garrett’s fantasy value based on that risk. The risk that Garrett plays OLB in 2020 is not zero, however. Upon arriving in New York last winter, Gregg Williams told reporters he would not change the Jets’ 3-4 base defense to a 4-3. Then he did. Two teams that did NOT undergo changes in defensive coaches DID change from 4-3 to 3-4: the Panthers and Falcons. Yes, both teams changed back late in the 2019 season, but the initial change highlights the incalculable risk to players as IDP assets in fantasy leagues that don’t use true positions (IDL, EDGE, LB). The hedge against this risk is to anticipate scheme changes before they are implemented, observed, and understood. The best way to do this is to keep apprised of coaching changes and those coaches’ histories and […]
Schemes Are Ch-Ch-Changing: Part 2
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