In last week’s Dynasty Trades HQ podcast, Jennifer Eakins of 4for4.com agreed with the cast that dynasty fantasy football gamers dominated Twitter discussions of player values. Dynasty gamers, the group agreed, seek to persuade those in redraft gamers to try the long game.
The IDP cult (including yours truly) will proselytize offense-only fantasy gamers, hopeful they’ll breathe in the air and convert. Those limiting themselves to one side of the football offer a variety of hurdles that dissuade them from diving in. The concern difficult to assuage is trading across the line of scrimmage. What is a stud IDP worth in rookie picks? Relative to a starting RB?
Admittedly, even seasoned IDP gamers risk brain damage wrestling with this question. The sheer number of variables involved differ widely across leagues, leaving us with few rules of thumb. While leagues without IDP typically require seven to 10 starters, IDP leagues can involve one to 12 starters. In some leagues, a mid-LB1 scores half as many points as a mid-RB1. In others, the linebacker might double the running back’s points-per-game scoring. Two weeks prior to Ms. Eakins’s appearance, the boys welcomed Izzy Elkafaas of DynastyTradeCalculator.com to the pod. Elkafaas advised that the inclusion of IDPs in his trade-calculator tool was unlikely due to this wide range of variables.
In the interest of furthering the inclusion of individual defensive players in redraft and dynasty leagues alike, let’s explore how each of the five defensive positions functions like an offensive position on fantasy football rosters. I can’t tell you which offensive player or even fantasy rookie draft pick you should offer for Aaron Donald without knowing the context of your league. I can, however, explain how to value defensive tackles in fantasy football using tight ends as context. In fact, each defensive position has a close parallel on offense:
LINEBACKER
Most experienced fantasy football gamers know that the linebacker position is the engine of many IDP rosters. IDP leagues assign points to players who tackle ball carriers, and no position gets more opportunities than the linebacker. As the player most frequently involved at the whistle stopping play, the linebacker equates to the running back.
Absent scoring premiums by position, linebackers are fantasy gamers’ largest source of points. Linebackers populate ten of the top 12 scoring IDPs under the scoring system of FantasyPros.com. Similarly, running backs occupy nine of the top 12 positions in half-PPR flex-position scoring (RB/WR/TE).
Perhaps intuitively, scoring drops off behind stud running backs much more quickly than for linebackers. Most teams deploy one running back at a time, while the average presence of linebackers on the field at any given time is roughly two. The table below reports 2019 scoring, again in the system of FantasyPros.com.
Construction of the table assumed a twelve-team league and that its managers would desire at least five players at each position to deploy multiple starters. The table could be reconstructed easily with additional players if desired. The 73rd player’s total points are relatively close to that of the 61st in each position, so the exercise would yield similar results.
The takeaway from the table is this: The upgrade from the 61st RB, the first replacement available on the waiver wire, to the 49th RB, an RB5 for a manager, is nearly the same as the upgrade from a replacement player to a middling LB3. Likewise, the upgrade from the replacement RB to an RB4 is similar to the upgrade from the replacement LB to the overall number one LB.
2019’s RB4s in total fantasy points were a motley crew that would fetch small returns in dynasty leagues. Based on production increase alone, only the top 24 linebackers are worth trading for at all. Even then, that production is not worth the premium of a first-round rookie pick or much of anything close to it.
Such conclusions about the value of LB scoring production is only a piece of the story. Other factors are worth considering in roster construction like the durability of an asset (i.e., the asset’s stability and longevity) along with player availability and consistency. Strategy and player parallels are offered here to build context.
Like running backs, the best linebackers are involved in three phases: run defense, coverage, and pass rush. “Two-down” linebackers – those weak in elements of the pass game – are at risk of low fantasy production due to game flow. His team builds a comfortable lead; he lacks tackle opportunities.
The workload of the linebacker is nevertheless the most predictable of all defensive positions. Tackle opportunities may not be as easy to project each week as RB touches, but they are certainly easier to project than QB sacks and turnovers, stats other IDP positions are more reliant upon for fantasy scoring. The fantasy gamer aiming for a high floor in scoring each week will assemble a stable, reliable LB corps.
Linebackers parallel running backs in that each is most likely to be sidelined by long-term injuries on their respective sides of the line of scrimmage. Also like running back, the linebacker is among the lowest-paid positions on the team. The lack of contract security relates to the turnover at the position. These reasons, combined with the predictability of workload, fuel a contrarian “zero-LB” movement in IDP fantasy football.
Zero-LB very much parallels zero-RB, perhaps intentionally so. Those going cheap at linebacker aim for rookies and players on muddled depth charts that could emerge as the NFL season progresses. Out of necessity, they bid big on replacements for injured starters in weekly waivers. Rookies at both positions seem to find their footing in the NFL quickly. Bills’ middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, for instance, took on defensive play-calling duties in a full-time role at age 21 in 2018.
Scarcity at the linebacker position in fantasy football affects only a minority of IDP leagues. The supply of linebackers available for trade becomes constrained only in leagues that require at least three linebackers in starting fantasy lineups. IDP Flex positions add to the demand.
Colts’ LB Darius Leonard is the parallel for Panthers’ RB Christian McCaffrey. Both lap the field in fantasy points per game. Leonard piles up points by adding value in the passing game – interceptions, passes defended, and QB sacks – to go along with success in run defense.
Chargers’ LB Thomas Davis parallels Bills’ RB Frank Gore. Both have played well beyond the age that anyone would expect. These are not the positions of thirty-somethings. Both players can be effective in the right circumstances in part-time roles.
Bengals’ LB Nick Vigil parallels Bears’ RB David Montgomery in that neither player inspires much confidence, but both enjoy a workload leading to fantasy production gamers can accept in their second LB or RB spot in weekly lineups. Gamers might also worry about these players’ long-term prospects, as their performances render them replaceable.
DEFENSIVE END
Running backs were the bread and butter of fantasy football for many years. Linebackers, meanwhile, drove IDP. More recently, building dynasty rosters around wide receivers has become a popular alternative. The same is true for defensive ends on IDP rosters.
The NFL game has become increasingly pass-dependent. Wide receivers offer safer floors than they once did due to high volume and PPR scoring. For IDPs, more passes equate to more pass-rush opportunities. Recent mainstreaming of tackles for loss and passes defended in fantasy scoring enable ends to accumulate points in more ways, making them more viable alternatives to linebackers.
The exercise of comparing RB tiers to LB tiers is duplicated for WRs and DEs to show parallels. Here too, scoring is FantasyPros.com half-PPR and IDP settings, total points through Week 16, and an assumption that each manager would roster five players from each position.
Defensive-end scoring above waiver-wire replacement compares well to that for the wide-receiver position. If you’re new to IDP, you’re probably asking yourself, “Who the heck is Kyle Phillips?” Exactly! Relying on the waiver wire to fill a hole at defensive end is a risky proposition, at best. Wide-receiver talent on most dynasty league waiver wires is similarly thin.
Defensive ends one can reliably start are understandably expensive, especially if a league’s unique scoring rules take measures to balance IDP and offensive players’ scoring totals. True stud defensive ends command premium picks because their high ceilings and relatively safe floors make them precious commodities. This makes them very much like true NFL WR1s like Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, and DeAndre Hopkins.
Quality defensive ends are also like wide receivers in that there’s a longer burn. Both positions take longer to develop than RB and LB, and both can play at a high level into their 30s. JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Justin Houston, and Calais Campbell continue to play well (confirmed by Pro Football Focus grades). They remain strong fantasy IDPs, just as Julio Jones is a strong fantasy option at wide receiver.
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Many IDP leagues fold defensive tackles into the broader position of defensive line. That’s unfortunate. The best defensive player in the NFL is a defensive tackle (Aaron Donald). The position should be valuable to serious fantasy gamers in that the best fantasy defensive tackles are the best real defensive tackles. That’s certainly true for defensive ends as well. That correlation for linebackers and safeties is weaker. It’s almost completely missing for cornerbacks. All fantasy commissioners should, in this writer’s opinion, aim to make their league a competition to assemble the best team with the most talent.
Defensive tackles are like tight ends in fantasy football not only because they can be folded into a similar position, but also because commissioners serious about the position build in ‘DT-premium scoring’ or require two starting defensive tackles.
On the field, a defensive tackle may be asked to “two-gap,” taking responsibility for the running lanes on both sides of an offensive lineman. This tactic often involves occupying blockers, allowing teammates to make plays. The tight end, meanwhile, helps with pass protection, also lending an assist to teammates rather than accrue fantasy points himself.
Another parallel is that both positions have a handful of players who are clearly the cream of the crop. The play is to pay up to acquire one of those top players or to stream and platoon based on matchups. There are currently four defensive tackles head-and-shoulders ahead of the field in IDP dynasty football: Aaron Donald, DeForest Buckner, Chris Jones, and Grady Jarrett. After them, young players, all early NFL draft picks, that have not fully broken out are the targets. Only these two small groups of players should have trade value.
Our parallel positions table based on tier breaks in a twelve-team league is modified here to illuminate the rapid decline in value from one to 13, followed by a leveling off. Defensive tackles outside the top 12 are either young players with upside, injured accomplished vets, or roster cloggers.
Oh, and here’s Aaron Donald doing his best Arian Foster impersonation:
SAFETY
In a high-functioning dynasty league, only two QBs per team should be rostered. Guys like Case Keenum and Kyle Allen should have been available on waivers. Their season scoring totals are similar to Trubisky’s. Starting a QB2 ahead of streamers is not a significant weekly advantage. Dynasty gamers are typically savvy enough not to trade anything but late picks for long-term QB2s without upside.
The safety position in IDP fantasy football functions like the quarterback position in a one-QB league. The waiver wire is full of safeties who will put up numbers close to those of top-20 players at the position. As seen in our now-standard chart below, a significant advantage is gained by starting one of only a handful of players at the position. Even then, the top player at the position yields nowhere near the advantage that the top DT, DE, or LB offers, relative to waiver-wire replacement.
Like top QBs, top safeties are likely to be over-drafted based on name value. IDP gamers like your writer love hard-hitting safeties and ballhawks that return interceptions for touchdowns. It takes restraint not to pay unreasonable prices for them.
CORNERBACK
Sigmund Bloom of FootballGuys.com likes to say that fantasy football value is the convergence of talent, situation, and opportunity. There are good placekickers and good cornerbacks in the NFL, but their abilities don’t necessarily position them to score fantasy points. A baseline level of talent keeps them on the field; situations drive their opportunities.
Situations that generally increase a player’s chances to compile counting stats include total snaps, a high proportion of snaps in the slot, facing heavily targeted receivers, and playing in soft zone defenses, especially in stadiums where stat crews generously award assisted tackles. The slot’s alignment closer to the quarterback enables the slot defender to blitz. A QB sack is a big bonus for a cornerback’s fantasy score.
Logan Ryan accrued the most fantasy points of any cornerback in many years in 2019. He played the second-most snaps of all cornerbacks and the most slot coverage snaps. In part for these reasons, Ryan allowed a league-leading 80 receptions as 2019’s most frequently targeted defender. Ryan also led NFL cornerbacks with five sacks, fueled by the second most pass-rush attempts by a corner. Cowboys’ slot defender Jourdan Lewis scored four QB sacks, while Chargers’ slot defender Desmond King collected three.
Byron Murphy played more snaps than any quarterback. He manned the slot on 27% of his snaps (calculated from PFF data). Marlon Humphrey and Justin Coleman each played more than half his coverage snaps in the slot.
A high proportion of slot snaps does not ensure fantasy production, however. Up until 2019, Chris Harris, Jr., frequently shifted into the slot in nickel packages. He’s a good enough player to deny his assignments the football. That means he makes far fewer tackles than inferior coverage players like Logan Ryan and Byron Murphy.
Our parallel positions table shows the outlier that Ryan’s 2019 is. The other cornerbacks fit a production curve similar to that of placekickers. While there is undeniably a benefit to starting the right cornerback, it’s too reliant upon the situation, which can too easily change year over year. Logan Ryan is currently an unrestricted free agent. Marlon Humphrey will return to an outside corner role with Tavon Young coming back from injury in 2020. Like the safety position, fantasy gamers are tempted to overpay when they might find similar results from lesser-known players emerging in similarly advantageous situations.
In Closing
After reading this, I hope you’ll consider IDPs as just more positions to add to what you know and love about fantasy football. There’s no need to think of offense-only and IDP gamers in terms of “us” and “them.” IDP will never eclipse offense-only leagues as the standard format. It does take more time to play in a league with IDPs added. There’s money to be made, however! Your league-mates can’t rely on calculators and apps from popular websites to trade, draft, and set lineups for them.
By the way, you’re probably wondering why I use half-PPR. Here’s one argument. Scaling back PPR would make IDPs more viable without painful machinations to the IDP scoring system.
Don’t hesitate to seek out help joining an IDP league. Every IDP writer I’ve encountered would be pleased to offer assistance over a fantasy football website like DynastyFootbalFactory.com, on Twitter, and in DFF’s case, in our Slack channel for members. Hit me up anytime!
Clemson and Michigan alum…Panthers and Cowboys fan…I try to see both sides of every debate and each trade. Find me on Twitter @DynastyTripp.
