We move deeper into Dynasty Non-Points-Scoring Season as the NFL Post Season nears a close which means trading, startups, and loading up for the rookie draft will be the only thing to do for a few months. But it’s important to understand that building a competitive roster for multiple seasons means correctly valuing players by position and individuals. Whether or not you’re new to Dynasty or a seasoned vet you can use my helpful “Stock Market” analogy when investing assets into trades or drafting in startups.
RBs – Fantasy Crypto Currency
RB value has been a topic I’ve hammered on all season and I’m going to do it again right here. Once again, I’ll use the same theories used in a previous article for your reference. However, the TL;DR version is that RBs aren’t as valuable as the mainstream fantasy community still perceives, which makes them Fantasy Crypto Currency. Most are short-term booms that won’t be worth much in the future, like Dogecoin.
RBs are the most volatile position in football due to their revolving door at RB1, shelf life, and the NFL not valuing the position as a whole. If we refer back to the VBD score (Baseline Players or the RB24’s total fantasy points subtracted from the player’s total points) we get the same story year after year showing that RB production isn’t as sticky as other positions. Austin Ekeler is the only RB to rank Top-24 in this stat in both 2021 and 2022.
For what it’s worth, VBD doesn’t exactly bake in long-term Dynasty value, but the fall of Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris and booms like Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard can show you just how much Dynasty value changes every year. Yes, players like Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Ekeler have had steady projectable value but so did Bitcoin and Ethereum, and those lost value too.
The real dangers are the James Robinsons and Myles Gaskins that players either don’t sell off in time or even worse, sink value and draft capital in trades trying to buy them. Yes, these are the Dogecoins of the Dynasty realm and will ruin your roster. Spend your time and assets elsewhere on your roster and use RBs for short-term value profits.
QBs – Blue Chip Stocks
Four out of the Top-5 finishes in points per game were QBs in 2022 and made up three out of five in 2021. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts routinely find themselves at the Top-12 of the VBD stat line. These two points paint of picture of consistency and fantasy production and despite the cost to pay up for a premium position it’s absolutely worth spending for “financial” security.
Quarterbacks are safe staples you should build your dynasty portfolio around not unlike Walmart, Amazon, and Apple. They’re pricey and prone to a down year like any position but in most cases, that’s just a cheaper entry point on a premium asset. Not unlike the previous Joe Burrow injury buy-window and soon-to-be Kyler Murray one. Moreover, quarterbacks simply have the longevity that every other position doesn’t have so even their floor will last longer than many assets’ ceilings.
WRs/TEs: Tech Stocks
Close your eyes and say it with me: “Targets are earned and not given.” This means that skilled wide receivers are more than likely to be peppered with targets and in far more control over their destiny than running backs. Players like Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce have consistently been at the top of the fantasy hierarchy and pass catchers routinely put up sticky stats at a higher rate.
The receiver position has been so consistent that the same six receivers (Jefferson, Hill, Adams, Diggs, and Chase) have been in the Top-5 the last two seasons with only Deebo Samuel and Stefon Diggs making the difference and it doesn’t take an analyst to explain how poor the TE depth has been. A quality pass-catcher can be like getting in on Facebook or Tesla early and making a boom on your fantasy roster. But due to age and physical factors, they can fizzle out and plummet in value just like Facebook and Tesla with very little to insulate them, unlike a QB.
Draft Picks: The Almighty Dollar
The most common mistake that new Dynasty managers make is trading away their draft picks for a playoff push and taking on a bunch of quickly depreciating assets…like RBs or old WRs. Draft Picks are your absolute safest asset and are guaranteed to gain value over time. They might not be as sexy early but just like the dollar, they won’t tank and gain value slowly like they’re sitting in your average savings account.
Moreover, you have to make the assumption that a rookie pick is the absolute cheapest you’ll get a player before you’ll have to spend multiple picks to acquire them. We play a game that imitates the NFL and an NFL roster can normally afford more value when they already have some on rookie contracts. Your rookie pick is the cost of a contract and essentially dynasty currency. Always look to add a pick onto a trade to get something extra later, or on the flip side, add a pick to get a deal done on a player if you can afford it.
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