Rookie Stock Market: Week 5

Week 5 of the NFL season has come and gone and we are now almost one-third of the way through the NFL regular season *shocked face*. As we approach this milestone in the season we are still learning a lot about the rookies each and every week. Some flash, some stumble, but what I aim to do here is help you make informed decisions based on their performances. Let’s begin, shall we?

Risers

CeeDee Lamb – WR Cowboys

Week 5 Snap Shot

Through five weeks CeeDee has been consistent, and consistently good. He’s not a one-hit-wonder but a full collection of hits. As we come in on the one-third mark of the season CeeDee Lamb has the sixth-most receiving yards in the entire league with 433. Yep, you read that right, a rookie WR is 6th. This is an incredibly impressive feat for a 21-year-old in his first year playing professional football. In Week 5 Lamb managed 19.5 PPR points as referenced in the SnapShot. What makes this impressive is he only saw 54.5% snaps but commanded 56.5% of the team’s air yards. This was Lamb’s season-low of snap % but still managed a very good week. Lamb doesn’t always seen a large snap share, and the reason in his role within the offense. CeeDee Lamb is playing as the Cowboys slot WR (87% slot snap rate), a position that typically only sees the field when the offense has at least three WRs on the field. Some would say this limits his upside, but considering how successful he was on the outside in college and how productive he has been those far this season, it does not bother me at all. If CeeDee Lamb finishes the season top five in receiving yards it wouldn’t be hard to name him the dynasty WR1.

Justin Herbert – QB Chargers

Week 5 Snap Shot

Since being named the starter in Week 2 Justin Herbert has been great. Herbert has completed 72% of his passes for 931 yards, five TDs, and three INTs. When counting the scoring from Weeks 2-5, Justin Herbert is the QB7 on the year, 12 spots ahead of his rookie counterpart, and #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft Joe Burrow. Going into the season, I don’t believe many people would have expected this. Herbert has expected expectations and for this reason, his value is on the rise, especially in Superflex and 2QB leagues. If you invested in Herbert before Week 2, it was well worth it. I believe Justin Herbert is here to stay, and his advanced metrics from playerprofiler.com back that up. In just four games Herbert is #1 in Money Throws with 15, #5 in Yards Per Attempt at 8.5, and #2 in Production Premium. Herbert can make the tough throws and is efficient in doing so. 

Fallers

Joshua Kelley – RB Chargers

Week 5 Snap Shot

The expectation was Joshua Kelley would see an uptick in usage with Austin Ekeler out hurt. However, in Week 5 with Ekeler not on the field Joshua Kelley saw only 35.2% of the snaps and produced only 38 yards as outlined in the Snap Shot. Seeing Justin Jackson dominate the backfield is not a great sign for Kelley. With Ekeler out he is still just the grinder and change of pace back in the Chargers’ offense. Many had hoped his role would expand, but it appears his role is the same and Jackson has stepped into the role left vacant by an injured Ekeler. With just 35 yards in Week 4 and a failure to take over the backfield in Week 5, Kelley isn’t living up to his hype, and not meeting expectations is making his value fall.

Buys

Jalen Reagor – WR Eagles

The first-round pick out of Texas Christian had a lot of buzz and hype coming into the season. Reports out of camp were very encouraging, Reagor was looking ready to make a big impact this season for the Eagles. With 96 yards on five receptions through two games, things were looking good until the news broke that Jalen Reagor injured the UCL in his thumb and was later put on IR after undergoing surgery. The prognosis is good for Reagor though, as this is the same injury Drew Brees had last season that kept him out for five games. The hope is Jalen Reagor can return to the field next Thursday 10/22 to face the Giants. Your window to buy Jalen Reagor is up until that game. Due to his injury, Reagor has taken a back seat to the other rookie WRs who are currently playing and producing, and the rookies are producing well. 

Just missing the cut here is Jalen Reagor who is averaging 48 yards per game in his small size. I would say it is encouraging he is just two yards behind the pace of rookie DeAndre Hopkins. When it comes to buying Reagor, I believe his value is somewhere between the late first to early second. I am personally a big believer in Jalen Reagor, so I would give up a projected late first without thinking twice, but if you aren’t as confident as me, I’d highly recommend sending out some offers for Reagor in the early second-round ballpark value. Just make sure you buy in on Reagor before he breaks out.

Sells

Chase Claypool – WR Steelers

Week 5 Snap Shot

Wow, is all I can say. What an insane Week 5 performance for Chase Claypool. A four TD performance is a thing of legend, especially for a rookie. After his ridiculous Week 5 Claypool has a ton of hype and his value is clearly on the rise. Due to this dramatic rise, it is time to live by the old stockbroker’s mantra and “Sell High” on Claypool. There are a couple of reasons I would sell Claypool now. The first reason being the absence of Diontae Johnson. Diontae Johnson played just six snaps last Sunday before leaving the game with a back injury. This opened the door for Claypool to step up, and he did. Johnson has now been ruled out for Week 6, leaving the door open for Claypool once again. Chase Claypool may produce again this weekend and inflate his value even more, but once Diontae Johnson returns I believe Claypool will be the third WR once again in the Steelers offense. You are going to wait to sell Claypool while he is still the perceived WR1 or WR2 in that offense depending on who you talk to. The second reason I would be selling Claypool is simply that I do not believe his college profile suggests long term fantasy success. 

As seen in this table seen above, with Chase Claypool being drafted in the second round of the NFL, paired with the 21-year-old Breakout Age he has only a 30% chance of having a top 24 PPR season. I don’t love those odds, and I try not to beat on outliners. The hype and value surge for Claypool are real, and first-round value is being thrown around. If I were a Claypool owner I’d be shopping him for a 21 first while Diontae Johnson is still out.

Thanks for reading the fifth edition of the “Rookie Stock” market, I hope to have you back next week! You can follow me on Twitter @RookieWhisper for more content.