Rookie Stock Market: Week 10

Shooters shoot and I’ve taken my fair share, and today I will admit to an airball I took. Giving dynasty advice is essentially just making an educated guess, but we still need to admit when we’re wrong. I still like my process and trust my rookie evaluation process, but I’m ready to admit I have swung and missed. I’ll dive right into my miss and touch on some other rookies below.

Risers

Chase Claypool – WR Steelers

Week 10 Snap Shot

This is now the second week in a row Claypool has been in my “Risers”, but he has been in my “Sells” more often than twice. I am holding my hand up here and admitting I am more than likely wrong on Claypool. My rookie WR evaluation process is roughly two-thirds analytics and one-third film, and Claypool pretty much flunked the analytics side, thanks to his 21-year-old breakout. On film I wasn’t overly impressed either, not seeing much refinement to his game. However, it turns out that when you are a freak out nature athlete it doesn’t really matter if you have a late breakout age and aren’t a technician as a route runner.

I wasn’t sold on Claypool early on, even after his humongous Week 5. Due to his less than ideal draft profile and elevated role due to the injury of Diontae Johnson, I was certain Claypool would not be able to sustain production, but as of the last two weeks, I am looking very wrong. In Week 9 and 10 with both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson healthy and in the lineup, Claypool has still had a major role in the Steelers offense. In the two weeks with Johnson back healthy and in the lineup, Claypool leads the team in targets. Despite the abundance of talent at WR in Pittsburgh Big Ben appears to like Claypool the most, targeting him often and down the field also.

In back to back weeks, Claypool has dominated air yards, with 39% and 41%. While I was hung up on my pre-draft assessment on Claypool, I failed to look past 2020. Claypool’s value is climbing now due to his production, but it could climb even more this offseason. JuJu Smith-Schuster could hit the free-agent market after the season causing Claypool’s value to rise even more. 

Cam Akers – RB Rams

Week 10 Snap Shot

Yes, Akers’ Week 10 stats are not very impressive but when you consider the lows he has experienced this year, this week is a big improvement for him. What made Week 10 big for Akers was the fact that he led the team in both carries and rushing yards. Although he was not overly efficient it is encouraging to see him get the bulk of the work. What prevented this from being a solid fantasy week for him was both Brown and Henderson getting all the rushing TDs, despite their lack of carries.

Akers is a powerful runner himself, so the TDs should come in time. The hard part is predicting them in this 3 RB rotation in Los Angeles. I think a sneaky stat for Akers is his overlooked touch totals when healthy. If you exclude the weeks he was still nursing a shoulder injury (Weeks 6 and 7) he has only failed to get nine touches just once. If Cam Akers can become a consistent piece in the cog that is the Ram’s rushing attack his value will only continue to rise.

Fallers

Jonathan Taylor – RB Colts

Week 10 Snap Shot

Boy oh boy, what a ride it has been on the roller coaster that is Jonathan Taylor. After Week 1 he was climbing pretty steadily, but as of recently, he is plummeting at an unfathomable rate. We are at a point where Taylor is worth significantly less than he was at the beginning of the year. I believe it would be easy to tag Jonathan Taylor as the “Biggest Loser” of this rookie class. Taylor has only eclipsed 100 total yards twice on the season and has failed to gain more than 40 the past three weeks. What is additionally concerning is his lack of snaps.

Only once this season has Taylor had more than 60% of the offensive snaps. It is not a good look when a highly regarded rookie is losing snaps to the likes of scatback Nyheim Hines and less than impressive Jordan Wilkins. I wish we could say that the coaching staff simply doesn’t know what they are doing and Taylor has been efficient with his touches, but that is sadly not the case. Via playerprofiler.com Taylor is #51 in “True Yards Per Carry”, #33 in “Evaded Tackles” and #52 in “Juke Rate”. Jonathan Taylor is quickly falling down dynasty rankings and he needs to quickly gain some footing on this slippery slope.

Buys

Cam Akers – RB Rams

This is one of the rare instances where I advise to buy into a rising asset. The primary reason is that his stock is still down from where it was several months ago. Akers was a consensus top 8 rookie is rankings and he is not sitting in the top 12 now. However, I believe he is a buy due to the promise he has shown recently. Despite the lack of counting stats, Akers has been impressive, and Matthew Freedman lays it out nicely:

I like to use this simple equation when looking at potential fantasy points, Efficiency + Opportunity = Production. Efficiency can be any form of advanced metrics, but yards after contact happens to be one of my favorites. With Malcolm Brown a free agent after this season and Darrell Henderson only signed through 2022, there is potential for more opportunities for Akers in 2021 and beyond. I am not sure about you, but I like the idea of owning an athletic second-round pick on a team with the sixth-most rushing attempts in 2020. This is especially true when you consider his acquisition price is lower than it was a few months ago. 

Sells

Salvon Ahmed – RB Dolphins

Week 10 Snap Shot

This undrafted rookie is all about the right place at the right time. With Jordan Howard cut, Matt Breida, and Myles Gaskins hurt Ahmed was essentially the only healthy RB on the Dolphins roster this past week. Sixteen points is a great outing for a first-time starter but it does not indicate future success, especially for a player with both subpar college production and athleticism. 

Miami didn’t have a ton of faith in Ahmed before this game considering he has just seven touches on the season prior to last week. I firmly believe will give the keys to Gaskins once he is back and healthy, and I am not even confident Gaskin the lead back come 2021. Considering Miami is an emerging offense with Tua now under center I believe the Dolphins will spend either significant draft capital or money in free agency to get a talented back next to Tua in 2021. This would make Ahmed the third RB at best. Salvon Ahmed owners should be looking to move him while the 21 carries and a touchdown are still in people’s minds.

Thanks for reading another edition of my “Rookie Stock Market”. I hope to have you back next week! You can follow me on Twitter @RookieWhisper for more content.