A rookie rewind is a way of gauging the value change of rookies from pre-season to post-season. It not only discusses the value change but also examines why the value changed. All of the quarterback value data comes from KeepTradeCut, as it crowdsources information in real time. Many of the statistics are sourced from ProFootballFocus (PFF).
Definition list:
- Missed Tackles Forced (MTF) – Forcing a defender to miss a tackle.
- Breakaway Rush – Carries that resulted in 15+ yards.
- Yards After Contact (YCO/Att) – Total yards after being touched by a defender are divided by the number of carries.
- Yards Before Contact (YBC/Att) – Total yards before being contacted by a defender are divided by the number of carries.
Pre-Season Ranks
This running back class was considered one of the greatest in recent years. There was somewhat of a consensus top five, and they were Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL), Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET), Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA), Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN), and De’Von Achane (RB – MIA). Their RB value data is from September 7, 2023, the opening day of the regular season. Going into this season, I had them ranked:
- Bijan Robinson (RB1)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (RB3)
- De’Von Achane (RB29)
- Tyjae Spears (RB41)
- Zach Charbonnet (RB20)
Pre-Season Overview
Bijan Robinson was in an extraordinary situation. The only real threat to his workload was Tyler Allgeier. Atlanta was a great system because they loved to run the ball. Atlanta was viewed as one of the best offensive lines for run blocking.
Jahmyr Gibbs walked into Detriot with only one other threat, David Montgomery, who would compliment him well. Dan Campbell and the Lions loved to run the ball.
De’Von Achane got the landing spot all dynasty managers were looking for. Miami could get him into their great zone scheme, and they knew creative ways to get him into the open field.
Tyjae Spears was walking in behind one of the best bellcow backs in the league, Derrick Henry. However, his skill set could complement Henry’s grind-it-out style.
Zach Charbonnet landed on a team with another young, established back. However, Charbonnet’s physical style would complement Kenneth Walker’s homerun-hitting style. Walker had struggled a bit going up the middle, so it felt like a good fit.
With Alvin Kamara suspended for three games, Kendre Miller had the chance to establish himself as the second option on the Saints, with the only competition being Jamaal Williams.
Roschon Johnson walked into the Bears with no true established lead back. The assumption was that D’Onta Foreman was the competition for the compliment to Khalil Herbert’s less physical, more elusive running style. It was assumed that Roschon would walk in and be the third-down back due to his pass-protection skills.
Tank Bigsby was not going into an extraordinary situation with Travis Etienne well-established as a young talent. Many viewed Etienne as losing value rather than Bigsby becoming a great asset because many viewed Etienne as a well-rounded back. Jacksonville did not have that need for a bigger back.
Current Outlook
(The rushing attempts threshold for stats is 28+, so all eight RBs qualify; a total of 82 RBs qualify)
Bijan Robinson did not get the expected workload but had a great year. He had a total of 373 receiving yards, ranking ninth. He had an MTF rate of 26.7%, ranking sixth. Robinson had a YCO/Att of 3.18, which ranked 19th. He also had a YBC/Att of 1.45, which ranks 32nd. Finally, he had a BAY rate of 24.8%, ranking 25th. Finally,
Allgeier took many close-out and goal-line touches at the beginning of the year. Robinson took many more of these important touches as the season progressed. The data reflects his collegiate profile well. An elite receiving weapon makes defenders miss through contact or elusive movement. He never had the high-end elite speed, so being more above average in BAY rate rather than elite fits his profile perfectly. By ADP, Robinson is still RB1 and, on average, is being taken in Superflex Startups’ in the late first and early second rounds.
Jahmyr Gibbs took off the last few weeks of the year but had shown good efficiency season-long. He had 316 receiving yards, ranking 15th. Gibbs had a 22.1% MTF rate and 3.27 YCO/Att, ranking 20th and 18th, respectively. He also totaled a YBC/Att of 1.74, ranking fifth. Finally, a BAY rate of 39.9%, which ranks fourth.
At the beginning of the year, all we saw was Gibbs flashing on his limited touches. He took many more touches as the season progressed, including short-distance and goal-line snaps. The data is underwhelming, but the BAY rate reflects what many analysts saw with his speed. The YCO/Att scares me because he is already running behind one of the best, if not the best, offensive lines, which is reflected in his YBC/Att. By ADP, Gibbs is RB3 and is being taken in the early second round of Superflex Startups.
De’Von Achane had a very up-and-down year. He totaled 162 receiving yards, ranking 39th. He had an MTF rate of 31.6%, which ranks third. Achane had a BAY rate of 52.3%, he ranked second. His YCO/Att was 5.16 and YBC/Att of 1.57, which ranks second and 15th, respectively.
Achane got hurt and missed a lot of time. Before he got hurt, he was dominating in the Miami offense. They found ways to put him into open space, where he made his money with elusiveness and homerun speed. Off his collegiate tape, many thought he did not have good contact balance and power, however, they were wrong as YCO/Att reflects. If he can stay healthy, he will dominate the league. By ADP, Achane is RB6 and is being taken in the late third rounds and early fourths of Superflex Startups.
Tyjae Spears was the backup to Derrick Henry for the entire year, but he still got a lot of work. He had 315 receiving yards, ranking 15th. He had an MTF rate of 27.5% and a BAY rate of 26.9% ranking fifth and 18th, respectively. He also had a YCO/Att of 3.27 and YBC/Att of 1.44, ranking 18th and 35th.
I remember early in the year, Spears was taking a lot of snaps where he was asked to block. It shows that Mike Vrabel had trust in Spears early. He is among the most elusive backs, reflected in the MTF rate. He showed some good yardage after contact but was getting hit early due to poor offensive line play, which can be seen in the YBC/Att. By ADP, Spears is RB20 and is currently being taken in the late seventh and early eighth rounds of Superflex Startups.
Zach Charbonnet has looked better than I expected in his few moments. Charbonnet had 142 receiving yards, ranking 42nd. He had an MTF rate of 15.8% 52nd and a BAY Rate of 23.8%, which ranks 52nd and 28th. Charbonnet had a YCO/Att of 2.97 and YBC/Att of 1.41 ranking 28th and 43rd, respectively.
For fantasy managers, Charbonnet has not lived up to what they spent on him as he was consistently taken in the late first and early second rounds. However, he is fitting a role on the Seahawks well. I was impressed with his BAY Rate, which reflects his ability to navigate to the second level of defenses. By ADP, Charbonnet is RB23 and is being taken in the late eighth and early ninth rounds of Superflex Startups.
Summary
Bijan Robinson is still my number-one running back in this class; however, Gibbs has closed the gap significantly. Achane, Spears, and Charbonnet are also in the same order. Achane has pulled away from Spears and Charbonnet. For me, the gap between Spears and Charbonnet has increased drastically. Based upon the ADP, Spears still feels like a value, especially after flashing throughout the entire season.
Thank you for reading this article. It means a lot to me! If you’re interested in more Devy, Dynasty Fantasy Football, and NFL Draft content, check out my Twitter/X, @Justin_Massie_ #DFFArmy #DynastyFootball
