Welcome back, Dynasty family! I wanted to mix it up today and review a few real trades in my Dynasty leagues this off-season. I’ll show you the trade results and give you my thoughts, breaking down each trade, and letting you know who I think came out on top. I’ll also provide you with the basic league format for each trade, which helps us to see the complete picture. So let’s jump right into our first trade!
Trade #1
For
League Format: 14-Team Dynasty Superflex TEP
In a 14-team league like this, the value of QBs naturally gets pushed up, as it’s much more challenging to roster and play two serviceable QBs every week. You may not be a Pickett believer in fantasy, but he’s a fairly valuable commodity in this league. Pickett’s ADP in June startup drafts is QB20, according to Bulletproof, which makes him a mid-QB2 here.
Rachaad White is a low-end RB2, and James Cook is a mid-RB3, according to Bulletproof. White appears to have a shot at a bell cow role in 2023, albeit for an egregious Tampa Bay offense. White’s rushing metrics in 2022 were well below average, so it’s tough to fully commit to him from a Dynasty perspective. James Cook will likely be part of a committee backfield with Damien Harris next season. Harris, being the much larger back, should see a lot of 1st and 2nd down work and red zone looks, while Cook handles the passing downs. I see Cook as a marginal flex play at best next season, and I’m not sure his Dynasty value will appreciate any further.
Conclusion
Sure, you get two “starting” RBs on one side of this deal. But give me the young QB with rushing upside in a 14-team league. Pickett was bad last year from a real-life and fantasy perspective but seemed to improve with experience, and he’s the unquestioned starter in Pittsburgh going forward.
Trade #2
Lamar Jackson, Terry McLaurin, D’Onta Foreman
For
Kyler Murray, Quentin Johnston, Kendre Miller, 2024 2nd, 2024 4th
League Format: 10-Team Dynasty Superflex TEP
This one could make sense for both sides, depending on team landscape. All things being equal, I lean with the Lamar side of the trade. He’s undoubtedly the best asset here and has the potential to be the QB1 overall in 2023 and beyond. In addition, McLaurin is a proven veteran WR that can provide immediate production. And while I don’t particularly care to roster any Bears RBs, Foreman is an efficient runner and has the potential to be the lead back in Chicago.
But as mentioned, team projection matters here. As a rebuilding team, I would prefer the Murray side. Kyler was a top-5 QB in fantasy PPG in each of the past three seasons and was going as a Round 1 startup pick just one year ago. He’s just 25 and has plenty of career ahead of him. The discount you can buy Kyler for this off-season is ridiculous and makes a lot of sense if you aren’t planning to contend in 2023. The other pieces of this deal are great rebuilding pieces as well. Quentin Johnston could be the WR1 in Los Angeles by 2024, and Kendre Miller could be the lead back in New Orleans in 2024. (I’d say the former is much more likely to happen than the latter, but still.) Finally, acquiring additional picks is always a plus when looking to the future.
Conclusion
This really depends on whether you’re a contending or rebuilding team. In a vacuum, give me the Lamar side. But this looks like a mutually beneficial deal to me.
Trade #3
For
League Format: 12-Team Dynasty Superflex TEP
I’ve seen a ton of D.J. Moore trades this off-season, and I don’t know if I’ve come across a single one where I preferred the Moore side. It seems many Dynasty owners have unrealistic expectations of what this Chicago Bears offense will look like in 2023.
The Dynasty community undervalues Kupp due to age, the recent injury and the Rams projecting to be bad in 2023. All these things may be valid concerns, but at the end of the day, Kupp has been the WR1 overall in fantasy PPG for two consecutive seasons. He’s also the only wide receiver with any pedigree on this Rams offense. If he stays healthy, 150+ targets is a lock, without question. And Tua is being slightly disrespected as well, mainly due to fear of further concussions. Injuries aside, Tua led the NFL in yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, and deep ball percentage in 2022. He was also 2nd in red zone accuracy and 3rd in QBR. Maybe this is just a product of his environment, being surrounded by a quality offensive line and elite WRs like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But hell, I don’t care. These guys aren’t going anywhere, Mike McDaniel is a genius, and Tua is his guy.
D.J. Moore is an elite talent that’s been placed in unfortunate circumstances throughout his career, and 2023 will be no different. Chicago was dead last in pass yards per game at 153 YPG in 2022. They have added some talent on the offensive end, but how much improvement can we really expect? Even if this offense makes exponential strides in 2023 and DJ Moore receives the lion’s share of the targets, they will still be a bottom-tier passing attack, and Moore will remain a fantasy letdown. There’s virtually no path to this guy being a WR1, or even a mid-WR2, at least while he’s catching passes from Justin Fields. Jonathan Taylor is an elite-level RB and likely the best asset in this trade, but not by much. I view Tua and Kupp in a similar tier to Taylor and could see many scenarios where I’d choose both over Taylor in a startup.
Conclusion
I wouldn’t spend too much time thinking about this one. Give me the Tua/Kupp side every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Trade #4
Justin Herbert, 2023 1.07, 2024 2nd, 2024 3rd
For
Jalen Hurts, Darren Waller, Jelani Woods
League Format: 10-Team Dynasty 1QB
With this being a 1QB Dynasty league, quarterbacks are less essential. I prefer dual-threat QBs more in a 1QB league, as I’m looking for the player with the highest possible ceiling. QB depth and safe floors are easy to come by in a 1QB league, especially in a 10-team league like this. So someone like Justin Herbert, who generally stays in the pocket, is someone I’m not overly eager to acquire.
The 1.07 in a Superflex league is more exciting than in a 1QB league. In Superflex, you’re looking at your choice of Quentin Johnston or Jordan Addison. In 1QB, the 1.07 will likely be Zay Flowers, Dalton Kincaid, or Anthony Richardson. This is still a quality asset, and two future 2024 picks give you added flexibility moving forward.
On the other side of the deal, Jalen Hurts is a generational fantasy football talent and a potential league-winner in any format. Waller has seen his stock skyrocket after signing with the Giants, where he pairs up with Daniel Jones and appears to have a clear path to being the top target in New York. Waller’s age and injury-ridden career are glaring red flags, but he may be worth the gamble for contending teams. His top-tier ceiling is hard to ignore. We’re only a few years removed from his 2020 season, where he compiled 146 targets, 1,196 yards, and 9 TDs.
Jelani Woods doesn’t move the needle a ton in most cases. He finds himself in a crowded Colts’ tight end room heading into 2023, but he is only entering Year 2 and showed some flashes of competence as a rookie, so there could be a path to fantasy relevance there.
Conclusion
In fairly even deals like this, I like to break the deal down into smaller pieces. Here’s how I look at it:
Jalen Hurts > Justin Herbert + 2024 2nd
Darren Waller + Jelani Woods = 2023 1.07 + 2024 3rd
I’d lean with the best asset here in Jalen Hurts. I think there’s enough value between him and the TEs. With Waller being a part of the package, though, I would only prefer this side if I was confident in my 2023 odds. It wouldn’t be wise to give up a 2023 1st and two 2024 picks if you aren’t a serious contender.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @DynastySavant. Until next time, keep grinding out there, Dynasty family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
