I had a thought today – why do we as Dynasty players not value injuries enough? Let me explain – players who we know are good or marginally good see their production fall after being injured. Instead of simply understanding that human bodies do not perform at their best when injured, the analytics community cites advanced or semi-advanced metrics as the explanation for the decreased production instead of the decreased production as simply a byproduct of injury.
This isn’t to say I’m not a member of the analytics community, I certainly am, but I think you can hit a wall where you become too objective and this article is going to be a way to rationalize that. To explain what I’m doing here – I’m going to be looking at some players this season who were injured and then played through the injury and had decreased production. These players can miss games, but the focus of this article is guys who are playing hurt and giving my thoughts on them and their future with your dynasty team.
The Honorable Mentions
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)
Bateman hasn’t played enough games while injured to consider him on the same list as these upcoming players who have had a lingering injury the majority of the season, but @bensprinkler has a great write-up of his dynasty outlook here.
Treylon Burks (WR – TEN)
Burks is in a similar scenario to Bateman, where he missed more games due to injury rather than playing hurt. This is no slight to Burks, as I’d never want players to play injured, it is just that he does not totally fit the parameters for this article. While he did have a turf toe injury this season, it hasn’t affected his play when he came back so it’s unclear whether or not it is still a lingering injury.
Potential for Positive Regression
Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
He’s one of the names listed in the thread that inspired me to write this article, and I think he’s one of the biggest buys in dynasty at his price. Currently RB14 on KeepTradeCut, his price fell off a cliff since September, when he was listed as the dynasty RB2. Let me preface what I’m going to say next with this – his production falling this year was predictable, and almost every analyst worth his salt predicted it. When you handle 100% of the workload as an RB, you can go nowhere but down; coupled with no more dump-offs from Ben Roethlisberger (QB – PIT) and a more mobile quarterback in Kenny Pickett (QB – PIT), this spelled a recipe for disaster for Harris.
However, RB14 is too low, and I think his value situation completely flipped. Last year, casual fantasy gamers stated that his terrible efficiency was entirely his offensive line’s fault, yet this year the same players aren’t giving him the same benefit and blaming him entirely. If that’s the case, let me say that he has had a Lisfranc injury since training camp, and maybe his poor production was because he was injured almost the entire season.
While I think yes, what we envisioned for Harris this season came to pass, his price was driven down further than it should have been due to his poor play which, in my opinion, is caused by his injury.
Verdict: BUY
Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
Allen is on the opposite end of the spectrum from Harris. While Allen was injured and played fairly terribly after his injury, he didn’t lose significant dynasty value because of it. I think the reasoning for this is despite the poor real-life QB play, Allen still managed to be a useful contributor to rosters, as his rushing upside was not affected by his elbow injury. Unlike Harris, there is no buy window for Allen, so my verdict is not affected too much by the injury.
Verdict: SOFT-BUY / NEUTRAL
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
The so-called “Social Media QB” as coined by Emmanuel Acho was injured in week two against the Kansas City Chiefs, suffering a rib cartilage fracture but continuing to play, not missing any games and only being sidelined for one play. Along with that, his starting left tackle Rashawn Slater and his number one WR Keenan Allen have both been injured a majority of the year, yet Herbert is the one catching flack for diminished production.
I think that after last season, Herbert’s price was a tad too high (valued at QB2-3 on KeepTradeCut), as he didn’t put up quite enough yards on the ground to have warranted his price tag. Currently, Herbert is priced at QB5, which in my opinion is a perfect price for him. I think dynasty gamers have to rationalize the biases they have against Herbert, as influenced by pundits like Acho, and understand that he has been hurt the entire season, so of course, he is not playing his best. Mina Kimes phrases this best –
Verdict: BUY / SOFT-BUY
Russell Wilson (QB – DEN)
Broncos Country? Let’s die! What a nightmare season Wilson is having right? In week four vs. the Los Angeles Raiders, Wilson reportedly tore his lat, and a few weeks later it was revealed he had a partially torn hamstring. Despite this, the narrative with Wilson is that “he’s washed,” with almost no credit being awarded to him. As corny as you may find him, we’ve seen Wilson be a top-five QB for around ten years, so there’s no reason to suspect he’s completely cooked.
For the price of admission (around a 2025 second-round pick according to KeepTradeCut), we should be all in. Especially with head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s firing, by next season Wilson should be healthy and back to being a passing and rushing threat. Like him or hate him, you cannot deny that he is injured, so why not give him some credit that maybe it’s as simple as his injuries keeping him from performing? At worst, you spend a second-round pick. At best, you have a top-five fantasy QB.
Verdict: STRONG-BUY
D’Andre Swift (RB – DET)
Swift suffered shoulder and ankle sprains early in the season, missing three games and not “winning” his job back from Jamaal Williams. What we know – Swift is an extremely talented RB with a tendency to demand a ton of targets and catch a ton of passes. What we should do: give him the benefit of the doubt that he is still injured and that the coaching staff is limiting his workload to avoid re-injury.
https://twitter.com/716DFF/status/1607440262875451397?s=20&t=Wx-FBPvPanle31aKYkrBWg
Verdict: BUY
Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)
Finally, this leaves us at Stafford. Coming off a Super Bowl win, there were reports in the pre-season that Stafford had tendonitis in his elbow and most fantasy gamers brushed it off. Come the regular season and Stafford looks horrendous and he loses Cooper Kupp to an ACL tear. Naturally, fantasy gamers react calmly and suppress his value to QB27 who can be bought for a late second-round pick. Similarly to Russell Wilson, Stafford is another veteran quarterback who has seen their value plummet, but I think his current value is more accurate than Wilson’s.
If it was as simple as the tendonitis, I would be pounding the table to buy Stafford, but he was also placed on IR and had his season end prematurely due to a spinal contusion, a much more serious injury than anything on the list so far. With what it costs to acquire Stafford, I would be holding off on buying him, as the upside is nowhere near Wilson’s as Stafford doesn’t have the same rushing upside. If you can acquire him for cheaper than a late second, I’d buy.
Verdict: NEUTRAL / HOLD
Final Thoughts
So what does this all mean? Let’s utilize Occam’s Razor. Why are we assuming the most long-winded answer to why these players with lingering injuries are playing poorly instead of just assuming their poor play is caused by their injury? Sometimes in life, keep it simple.
What I am not saying – every player’s poor play is due to some unseen injury.
What I am saying – identify players with lingering injuries and buy if it’s overly obvious their value is suppressed by their injury.
Thanks so much for reading! For other informative dynasty articles, make sure to stay tuned at dynastyfootballfactory.com. If you liked this article, follow me @716DFF, and the whole DFF team @DFF_Dynasty. Check out this thread for some other dynasty tips, and click here for all of my other articles! Have an amazing day! Cheers!
Special thanks to @FFMadJester for the help on this article. Check out his page at DFF here.
