One of the most polarizing prospects in the 2023 draft class is Ole Miss running back Zach Evans. Today, we will use my personal prospect grading model to evaluate Evans as a prospect and see what kind of player he might become in the NFL.
Physical Grade
During the pre-draft process, there has been some confusion amongst the dynasty community surrounding Evans’ measurables. For simplicity’s sake, we’ll use his ESPN measurements of 6’0″ and 215 lbs. (29.16 BMI). Evans is also a good athlete and is expected to perform well at the combine; in high school, he ran a 4.51 40-yard dash, a 3.91 20-yard shuttle (100th percentile), and posted an impressive 34-inch vertical leap.
Evans checks every athletic box and fits the physical mold of a bellcow running back. With the information available currently, Evans earns a 1.4/1.5 physical grade. This is subject to change after official Combine measurements and workouts are available.
Stats/Production
Evans’ college stats are listed below:
- FR (TCU): 54 att, 415 yards, 4 TD, 7.7 yds/carry. 8 receptions, 76 yds, 9.5 yds/rec.
- SO (TCU): 92 att, 648 yards, 5 TD, 7 yds/carry. 10 receptions, 130 yds, 1 TD, 13 yds/rec.
- JR (MISS): 144 att, 936 yards, 9 TD, 6.5 yds/carry. 12 receptions, 119 yds, 1 TD, 9.9 yds/rec.
- College Dominator: 24.3% (50th percentile)
Evans played alongside future NFL running backs Kendre Miller and Quinshon Judkins throughout his college career, impacting his counting totals. He was efficient overall and showed solid statistical progression year-to-year over his time in college, but his volume leaves more than a little to be desired. This raises questions about his ability to handle a full workload at the NFL level. Additionally, Evans’ receiving usage is less than ideal, which will need to improve in the pros if he is to become an elite fantasy asset.
Overall, Evans’ stats earn him a 1.5/2.5 grade. His totals are unimpressive and he lacks ideal volume, but he was an efficient producer throughout his college career.
Film
Let’s see what the tape can tell us about some of Evans’ traits.
Full in-depth Zach Evans film breakdown:
I scored Evans’ film as a 4.1/5. Evans shows great power and ball-carrier IQ and is an elite downhill runner with an excellent understanding of angles. His athleticism pops on film, as he has excellent burst and good long speed. He has shown soft hands and good transitions from pass-catcher to ball carrier on tape as well, so despite the low volume in college, I’m not concerned about a lack of receptions in the NFL. Evans struggles sometimes with vision and moving laterally, and is not the most willing pass protector. Overall, there is room for improvement, but Evans is a smart runner with plenty of elite traits present as well.
Competition Grade
Evans finished his college career at Ole Miss, and it was also his best season. Ole Miss’ elite SEC competition spots Evans 0.5/0.5 available points.
Age
Evans will be 21 on draft day. This spots him 0.2/0.2 points.
Early Declare (Y/N)
Evans is an early declare prospect. As this is usually a good indicator of future NFL success, this spots him 0.3/0.3 points.
Overall Prospect Grade: 8.0/10
Stylistic NFL Player Comp: Evans’ running style reminds me a lot of Alvin Kamara. Obviously, Kamara is a far better receiver than Evans will likely ever be, but Evans has shown soft hands and the ability to transition quickly as a pass catcher. They both share elite contact balance and underrated power, as well as a smooth running style that lacks truly elite home run speed but can still toast angles most of the time. Evans could immediately make an impact in a role similar to Kamara’s 2022 role as an early down rusher with receiving ability. I do not expect Evans to reach Kamara’s 2019-2021 fantasy ceiling, but as NFL players I see lots of similarities between the two.
Thanks for reading! I hope you were able to learn something about this prospect. Be sure to check out some other DFF prospect profiles to crush your rookie drafts, and take a look at my Twitter @bensprinkler for more content like this!
