The 2023 offseason promises big changes to the running back landscape in the NFL. Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll go over my predictions for the running back situations of each team, as well as the corresponding fantasy implications. Check out Part 3 of this series, where I looked at the NFC North.
Cincinnati Bengals
2022 Starter: Joe Mixon + Samaje Perine
Some recent off-field drama surrounding Bengals star running back Joe Mixon stirred up rumors in the Twitterverse about how potentially scary this Bengals offense could look with Bijan Robinson added to the mix. Most of this was fantasizing on the part of the dynasty community, and Mixon seems to be in the clear regarding playing status for next season. But, the idea of an injection of youth in the Cincinnati backfield is very intriguing and one that is quite possible. The Bengals would save over $7,200,000 by cutting Mixon this offseason and only incur $5,500,000 of dead cap- so the possibility of Mixon being released is very, very real.
The Bengals were a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of rushing EPA/play, and from first glance, it didn’t feel like their run game was a big problem for them. However, when looking at Cincinnati’s rushing EPA/play, we must remember that datapoint is skewed slightly by Mixon’s 5 TD performance against the Carolina Panthers. Before that game, the Bengals were 27th in rush EPA/play, and in the weeks following that game, they ranked 21st. Overall, the Cincinnati run game wasn’t terrible, but could certainly stand to improve. Much of the blame for the lackluster rushing effectiveness in the regular season could also be pinned on the offensive line more than the running backs. So, replacing Mixon isn’t a necessity for the Bengals’ offseason; but it certainly is a possibility – and one that I think Cincy will go with. The financial benefit of cutting Mixon simply makes too much sense to ignore compared to the value he adds to the field.
Samaje Perine is also a pending unrestricted free agent, and the Bengals are preparing to simultaneously pay Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. Thus, I think the most likely outcome is that the Bengals spend a Day 2 pick on a young Running Back, ideally someone with a 3-down bell-cow profile who could potentially take the lead role. Some rookies I like for Cincinnati at pick 92 include Zach Charbonnet, Zach Evans, and Kendre Miller. These rookies would have a chance to attain a massive role in one of the league’s most potent offenses and are worth a look in Dynasty and Redraft leagues.
Projected 2023 Starter: Day 2 Rookie + Cheap Veteran Free Agent
Baltimore Ravens
2022 Starter: J.K. Dobbins + Gus Edwards + Kenyan Drake
The Baltimore Ravens Running Back room has historically been a Fantasy headache. Unfortunately, I don’t expect that to change in 2023. Dobbins is currently one of the more controversial assets at any position in Dynasty, coming off of a brutal ACL injury in 2021 that kept him sidelined for that season, and still affected him during his 2022 campaign. With a full offseason, Dobbins will hopefully be able to see some level of a return to form, but by the nature of his injury, it’s unknown just what that might look like.
When healthy, Dobbins was a respectable producer this season. He certainly ramped up toward the end of the year, despite the Ravens’ offense being one of the worst in the league. Dobbins also put out a strong effort in the wild card round, totaling 105 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown. On tape in 2022, Dobbins appeared to be much slower, but he still had the lateral quickness to make guys miss in tight spaces, and possesses great vision and power which does not seem to have left him. Dobbins is also entering a contract year, which for fantasy purposes is a pretty big deal. We just saw Raiders Running Back Josh Jacobs absolutely light up the league in a contract year, and Saquon Barkley was impressive this season as well. I like Dobbins in the short term in Dynasty as a potential top-12 finisher this coming season if he’s able to stay healthy.
However, I struggle to see a world where the Ravens give Dobbins a second contract and commit to him much past the 2023 season. Given his injury history and the Ravens’ proficiency in the run game due to the presence of Lamar Jackson, I think a more likely outcome is that the Ravens plug a new ball carrier into the backfield on a rookie deal. I suspect the Ravens may spend an early day 3 pick on a versatile 3-down style running back, such as a DeWayne McBride/Eric Gray type of prospect. This wouldn’t be a fully enamoring landing spot for fantasy purposes, but there’s certainly some value to be had there in rookie drafts, with Lamar’s presence being a huge boost to the general success of running backs (despite siphoning some touchdown opportunity and overall volume).
Projected 2023 Starter: J.K. Dobbins + Gus Edwards + Early Day 3 Rookie
Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 Starter: Najee Harris + Jaylen Warren
I have been an outspoken Najee hater for quite some time. He was my RB3 in the 2021 class, behind both Javonte Williams (my RB1) and Travis Etienne. Since arriving in the NFL and reaching dynasty darling status, I have been lower than consensus on Najee since what feels like the dawn of time. This year was somewhat of a victory lap for me on that take, as Najee’s consensus value has dropped considerably (Consensus RB2->RB10 via KTC) following a disappointing sophomore campaign. So, my stance on Najee currently?
I think he’s a value. At cost, I’d suggest buying Najee Harris. His RB10 rank on KeepTradeCut is much higher than I think his asking price will be in most leagues. In our recent DFF Startup mock (which you can check out here), Harris was taken as the RB15 off the board, which is right around where I have him in my rankings. Despite the lofty expectations for 2022, Harris’ RB14 finish in PPR is not all that bad. While I do still think I was right about him, and that he’s not an elite Dynasty Running Back, there’s still a place for fringe RB1/2 guys in the dynasty landscape, and that’s about where I think Harris should be. Pittsburgh’s offense should improve in 2023, and Harris will likely have a steady diet of carries and targets, so I see no reason why he won’t finish somewhere around the RB10-15 range this coming season. Harris might not be who you thought he was, but he’s exactly who I thought he was – and that’s not a bad thing.
The other name worth mentioning in Pittsburgh is Jaylen Warren, who came onto the scene toward the end of the 2022 season. Warren began to nibble out of Harris’ previously elite workload, which to some Dynasty managers was a cause for concern. I think these concerns are a bit overblown, and I don’t see Warren’s share of touches as having a significant impact on Najee’s value. Warren is definitely a roster-able reserve, but he shouldn’t be expected to be a week-to-week producer and additionally shouldn’t be a major reason to fade Harris. Fire up Najee as a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 in 2023 and beyond, and hold Warren as a bench stash in most 12-team leagues.
Projected 2023 Starter: Najee Harris + Jaylen Warren
Cleveland Browns
2022 Starter: Nick Chubb + Kareem Hunt
Nick Chubb is now entering year six as one of the better Running Back careers of this generation. A perennial fantasy RB1, Chubb has shown no signs of slowing down and is still one of the most dominant ground forces in the entire league. Arguably the NFL’s best pure runner, Chubb has always had questions from Fantasy managers about his lack of receiving work, but it has never translated into being an actual problem for his production or his value as an NFL player. Chubb is nearing the feared RB cliff that usually comes around age 27, but last year none of the typical red flags flaring up usually signify that drop in effectiveness. Chubb this season still had good top-end speed, his usual elite contact balance and power, and unmatched ballcarrier vision. This combination of elite traits should keep Chubb as a solid RB1/RB2 for the next few years. All of that being said, it should be noted that if Chubb was to suddenly fall off, his current contract is quite flexible and he could be released with a fairly low amount of dead cap after the 2023 season. This is worth keeping an eye on, but likely if Chubb’s production falls off it won’t make much difference fantasy-wise if the Browns cut him or keep him.
Chubb’s longtime backfield running mate, Kareem Hunt, is an unrestricted free agent entering the 2023 offseason. I fully expect Hunt to sign elsewhere, as the Browns have no reason to pay him the 5-8 million he will likely be seeking. Hunt could gain relevance as a circumstantial FLEX play in deep leagues by signing with a good offense with rotational touches available at running back, such as a team like the Eagles or Dolphins.
Additionally, I expect the Browns to spend likely a late Day 3 pick on a rotational back to provide depth behind Chubb for the foreseeable future. D’Ernest Johnson is also an unrestricted free agent, and he could be resigned as a depth piece as well. Johnson, a day 3 rookie, and rising sophomore back Jerome Ford all have little to no value as deep handcuffs but are worth roster spots in deeper leagues.
Projected 2023 Starter: Nick Chubb
Thanks for reading! Be sure to check out the rest of this series where I’ve analyzed more teams’ Running Back rooms, check out some other DFF articles to dominate your leagues, and take a look at my Twitter @bensprinkler for more content like this!
