Timing is everything. This statement couldn’t be truer in dynasty fantasy football. As I mentioned in my most recent “Offseason Roster Management” series, pinpointing the exact moment to sell an asset for a profit or to buy an asset before his value skyrockets can separate good fantasy players from great ones.
This time between the fantasy football season and the NFL Draft is unique. Many owners take time to mentally reset from the 16-17 week grind of the fantasy football season. Other owners enjoy the fact they can watch playoff football without having to worry about individual player performances or setting lineups.
While I would not recommend making drastic changes to your roster or filling your league-mates’ inboxes with trade offers designed to overhaul your team, making calculated adjustments during this “downtime” can set you up for success come the NFL Draft and your subsequent rookie draft.
With that in mind, I am going to touch on a few players that I think you should make moves on, either trading away or trading for, before the NFL Draft. These are players who I believe will have significant value changes once their team completes the draft. Looking ahead and capitalizing on values in the offseason can set your team up for success come next fall.
Let’s get to it.
Ian Thomas (TE, CAR)
He’s been someone I have mentioned a few times as someone who I think could see a sizeable value change next season. While the NFL Draft is a less important deadline for Thomas, his value is directly tied to what happens with Greg Olsen this offseason. Olsen, who has been a staple of the Panthers offense, and fantasy rosters, for many years, is nearing the end of his prestigious career.
The young, athletic fourth-round pick out of Indiana just finished his second season in the NFL. He has played second-fiddle to veteran Greg Olsen each of the last two seasons so he hasn’t seen the field at the same rate as a normal starter. However, when asked to step up and be the team’s TE1, he has done an exceptional job.
The most obvious example came during the second half of the 2018 season. Per AirYards, from Weeks 13-17, Ian Thomas operated as the primary tight end in place of an injured Greg Olsen. During that time, he led all Panthers not named Christian McCaffrey in receptions. Also, during those five weeks, he was the TE6 overall across the league.
Reliable, consistent tight ends are tough to come by if you’re not willing to pay up for an elite option early in your drafts. This past season, we saw guys like Mark Andrews and Darren Waller produce at a high level despite not having strong draft capital. When a relatively “unknown” tight end pops and produces out of nowhere, the fantasy community always goes back to the lab to try and find that next hidden gem.
Another aspect for fantasy owners to keep an eye on in the offseason is news coming from the team, especially from coaches or specific players. While “coach speak” can be a double-edged sword depending on the coach, oftentimes it allows us to get a glimpse into the potential plans of a team.
A recent example came out of Indianapolis when Colts GM Chris Ballard said, “We’ll probably move on” when asked about tight end Eric Ebron. Now, to be fair, most instances are not that easy to figure out. Most coaches and general managers tend to be a bit coyer and more reserved with their comments about players and their potential future with the team.
Back to Ian Thomas. Shortly after the Panthers season ended, word started coming out from both Greg Olsen as well as his teammates that Olsen might be considering retirement.
His string of prior injuries is well documented and well known by anyone who follows the league. In case you need a refresher, here is what Sports Injury Predictor has on file. Keep in mind, this list isn’t even updated through this current season.
[exceltable id=’65110′]
Injuries and age are not a good combination for anyone, especially for football players who are starting to see injuries pile up. Recovery time takes longer and the explosiveness starts to fade away. The Panthers have already seen flashes of what Ian Thomas can do when given a full allotment of snaps. The future of their tight end position appears to be in good hands.
As mentioned earlier, while I do not think the Panthers spend any sort of high draft capital on addressing the tight end position, I do believe that fantasy owners should act quickly to secure Ian Thomas.
It remains to be seen how Ian Thomas will fit in the plan of new head coach, Matt Rhule, who was recently hired after coaching at Baylor. While Greg Olsen is still ahead of Thomas on the depth chart, a swap to another team or an announcement of retirement will vault the value of Thomas much higher than it is right now.
Justice Hill (RB, BAL)
The current third-string running back on the Baltimore Ravens, Justice Hill, is an intriguing prospect for me. While he’s currently buried on the depth chart behind Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards, Hill has a unique athletic makeup and is on a team that is in a position to maximize his skill-set.
Take a look at Justice Hills’ college production.
Justice Hill was productive during his three years at Oklahoma State. He finished his collegiate career by averaging over 1,250 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns per season. Hill showed excellent durability (averaging over 200 carries per season) as well as some pass-catching ability (31 receptions in 2017). However, one common knock against Hill is his size.
Justice Hill measures well in every category from a physical standpoint except his size and weight. Some have looked at this as a potential detriment from a load management standpoint but his ability to average over 200 carries per season shows he is capable of being more than just a third-down, pass-catching specialist in the NFL.
The Baltimore Ravens selected Justice Hill in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft. The Ravens loaded up on offensive skill-position players this past spring by selecting Marquise Brown (first round), Miles Boykin (third round), and Justice Hill (fourth round). Each of them has been productive in their way in the role they were assigned on the team.
With Hill currently sitting behind veteran Mark Ingram and second-year running back Gus Edwards, it may seem a bit of a stretch that he has a path to meaningful work, despite the Ravens being the most run-heavy team in the league. However, I think Hill is someone you can, and should, target this offseason before the Ravens potentially shake up their roster heading into the draft season.
Mark Ingram is signed with the Ravens through 2021 so it appears likely that he will be back with the team for at least one more season. He is also creeping up in age for someone at the running back position and we all know how quickly the “age cliff” can come for running backs in the league.
As for Gus Edwards, the second-year back does not have the same track record of collegiate success or the same athletic profile as teammate Justice Hill. While Edwards has produced well in limited action over the last two seasons, I believe that Hill is a more versatile and more athletic running back who should see an increase in work moving forward.
Take a look at Gus Edwards’ college production.
Don’t let depth chart organization dictate how you manage your fantasy football team. Like everything else, it’s an additional piece of information, a data point, that you can and should use to help create a clearer picture of your roster and it’s players. Players who appear to be “buried” on the depth chart may be a single moment away from being fantasy relevant.
While it’s possible the Ravens draft an additional running back this spring with how deep this running back class is expected to be, I believe Hill becomes the RB2 in Baltimore next season with an opportunity for a greater level of involvement should Ingram come down with an injury.
Learning how to recognize situations or scenarios that are ripe for change, ahead of the rest of your league, can lead to significant profit for your team. Being able to capitalize on those moments can make a big difference when you are competing for that fantasy championship.
Thanks for checking out my article! For more fantasy football content, follow me on Twitter @Samuel_DFF.
