In my previous two-part article, I looked at the 10 best draft values from the 2019 redraft season and how much they impacted fantasy teams.
Also, I predicted the future and examined whether those players would live up to the same performance in 2020 and whether they would return good value in 2020. However, as most fantasy owners know, identifying busts is just as crucial to success and failure in fantasy football as picking players on the rise.
In this two-part article, I will name the 10 biggest busts from the 2019 redraft season. In part one, I will choose five players from the top 50 in ADP, and in part two, I will select five players from ADP between 51-150.
When choosing my busts, I will try to avoid players that missed a few games but were otherwise successful when they played, so you won’t see Saquon Barkley or Alvin Kamara on the list. Injuries are hard to predict, so it’s better to look at guys who flopped even when they were on the field.
Similar to the values section, the individual players are important, but general trends and strategy advice will also be included below. As in part one, Yahoo’s final half PPR ADP is the source for the below ADP numbers.
David Johnson: ADP: 7.7, RB5, finished as RB38
Johnson is the definition of a fantasy bust. While he performed well in Weeks 1-6, he never received more than five carries in any game for the rest of the season. He was supplanted as the starter by trade acquisition Kenyan Drake and was reduced to a bit-part role, even when healthy near the end of the season.
Johnson’s RB38 finish means nothing as almost all of his scoring was in those first six games. Some fantasy owners started Johnson after that and received performances that destroyed your chance to win that week. By the Cardinals’ Week 12 bye, Johnson was considered droppable in most leagues, an unbelievable fall from grace for a healthy first-round redraft selection.
Looking forward to 2020, I expect the Cardinals to retain Drake as their starter along with backup running back Chase Edmonds. Therefore, despite a prohibitive dead cap charge, Johnson will undoubtedly be on a new team. He could have sleeper value wherever he goes, but his days of being a rock-solid RB1 or even anywhere near the RB1 conversation are long over.
James Conner: ADP: 10.2, RB7, finished as RB33
Similar to Johnson, the worst part of owning Conner in 2019 was that he suited up for many games and then received little to no work in those contests. Unlike Johnson, in-game injuries were responsible for Conner’s lack of touches, and that killed fantasy owners who started Conner in those weeks.
However, even when Conner was healthy, he only exceeded 55 yards in one game all season, in Week 8 against the Dolphins. The Steelers’ offense completely sputtered after Ben Roethlisberger’s injury, tanking the fantasy prospects of every player on the team. While Conner certainly looked like the best running back of the Steelers’ current options, he did not perform anywhere near the caliber of a first-round redraft selection.
Going into 2020, I still think Conner will be the Steelers’ starter, but questions surrounding Roethlisberger will cloud the Steelers’ outlook. Conner will likely be drafted as a mid-RB2 in 2020, which is an interesting spot for him. His average score of 12.9 half PPR points in the games he played ranked 18th among running backs that played at least 10 games. Considering he didn’t even finish some of those games, Conner could be a value in 2020, assuming he’s still the Steelers’ unquestioned starting running back.
Odell Beckham Jr.: ADP: 14.2, WR5, finished as WR26
Unlike the two previous players, Beckham played all 16 games in 2019. He finished with 74 receptions on 133 targets for 1035 yards and four touchdowns as the WR26. Considering that most owners expected Beckham to be a solid WR1 with upside to be the WR1 overall, anyone who drafted him was probably extremely disappointed. Also, the name value of Beckham probably caused most owners to continue forcing him into lineups throughout the season, even though he was not performing up to his usual standard.
Near the end of the season, news finally came out that Beckham was dealing with a sports hernia injury the entire season. While some might blame the injury for Beckham’s struggles, I would also point to the incompetence of Freddie Kitchens and his coaching staff and the regression of quarterback Baker Mayfield as other reasons for Beckham’s relative failure. I think that the truth lies somewhere between his WR5 draft price and his WR26 finish.
In 2020, I believe that Beckham will still be drafted as a back-end WR1, probably around WR10. That price is probably fair, and the upside of Beckham is still there. A WR1 overall finish in 2020 is within Beckham’s range of outcomes, especially if the Browns hire a good head coach and improve their offensive line. Assuming that news about Beckham’s health is positive throughout the offseason, I see no reason to avoid Beckham in 2020 drafts.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: ADP: 16.8, WR6, finished as WR66
When drafting in 2019, I don’t think even the foremost JuJu detractors could have foreseen a WR66 finish. While Smith-Schuster missed four games due to injury, he still played in 12 and accomplished very little in those 12 games. His final line of 42 receptions on 72 targets for 552 yards and three touchdowns was a massive letdown for fantasy owners and makes him a candidate for the worst bust of 2019.
Inconsistent quarterback play from both Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges was a factor in Smith-Schuster’s issues, but he didn’t even stand out from the other wide receivers on his team. Smith-Schuster averaged 7.7 half PPR points in 2019, behind Diontae Johnson’s 8.4 and just ahead of James Washington’s 7.4. I am very concerned that Smith-Schuster is no longer the clear #1 wide receiver on this team. At times, I was impressed by the play of both Johnson and Washington, and I expect both players to be involved in the Steelers’ 2020 plans. Therefore, going into 2020, if Smith-Schuster is anywhere near the WR1 range, he will not be a part of any of my rosters. There are too many questions with both his role in the offense and the future effectiveness of Ben Roethlisberger to invest that type of capital in Smith-Schuster.
Brandin Cooks: ADP 41.1, WR16, finished as WR62
Similar to Smith-Schuster, Cooks suffered from injuries, although in Cooks’ case, it was concussions. Also, like Smith-Schuster, on top of Cooks’ injuries, Cooks was given a vastly reduced role in the offense compared to previous years. He played in 14 of 16 games, but still finished as the WR62.
Cooks’ line of 42 receptions on 72 targets for 583 yards and two touchdowns is eerily similar to Juju’s numbers. Cooks’ teammates Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both had 90 or more receptions and over 1100 yards receiving yards.
While all three receivers have succeeded in the past, the difference in 2019 was the emergence of the tight end. As discussed in part two of my fantasy values article, Tyler Higbee came into heavy usage down the stretch. Considering that the Rams recently extended Higbee’s contract and seem committed to Woods and Kupp, I have little hope for Cooks if he remains in Los Angeles in 2020. He would be a boom/bust low-end WR3 if he stays, but he still has some low-end WR2 upside if he is traded to a new destination.
Remember that Cooks’ worst receiving yardage performance from 2015-2018 was 1082 yards, so Cooks’ talent is undeniable if he can make his way into a better situation.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I’d love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out anytime! I’ve been taking fantasy questions lately and trying to help out with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
