This article will attempt to identify players who I believe have a chance of becoming dominant forces in fantasy football based on Week 1 statistics. As much as I would love to talk about Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, I will be avoiding the obvious star players who are expected to dominate on a weekly basis.
Diontae Johnson
Diontae Johnson got his season off to as poor a start as possible on Monday Night Football, fumbling the first punt return on his own 10-yard line. The rest of the first half was not much better as he only gathered in one of his three targets for a measly two yards. At this point, most of us feared the worst and probably even began to doubt the potential of a breakout season for the young wide-out. These fears should have been laid to rest in the second half as Johnson hauled in 5/6 targets for 55 yards.
So, what are the statistics you need to monitor?
Johnson finished the night leading the team in target share with 32% and in air yard share with 29%. He was also joint first (with JuJu Smith-Schuster) in snaps for wide receivers with 55. If these trends continue Diontae Johnson holds weekly value and would even suggest that he may take over as the team’s primary option. Remember, it was only two years ago that Ben Roethlisberger supported two top 12 wide receivers in this offense.
Parris Campbell
I do not believe that Philip Rivers has improved the Indianapolis Colts chances of winning football games. However, I do believe that he has vastly improved the outlook of their skill position players for 2020. This applies to Parris Campbell more so than most. After struggling with injuries in 2019 Campbell is looking to establish himself as one of the top receiving options on the offense and he got off to an impressive start on Sunday.
Campbell led all Colts wide receivers in snaps with 61 and incredibly was joint first in both air yards (103.0) and percentage of team targets (19.6%) with T.Y. Hilton. With Campbell’s 4.31 speed and ability to gain yards after the catch he could become a comfortable WR2 in a Rivers led offense, who has a long and successful history of targeting slot receivers.
A.J. Green
I have very few shares of A.J. Green this year and for good reason, his injury worries are as real as they are terrifying. Despite a disappointing opening game, the signs were there to say A.J Green was not a million miles off his former Pro Bowl self. It would be unrealistic to expect Green to lead the Bengals’ receivers in snaps, remember this is his first game since 2018 which explains why he finished third. This is where the bad news ends as Green dominated in every other metric.
Not only did he lead the team in targets and red zone targets, but Green had a ridiculous 44.6% of the team’s air yards which resulted in him totaling 2.82 air yards per snap. This tells me that whenever Green is on the field he will be utilized as the team’s alpha wide receiver. This is a situation worth monitoring especially as Joe Burrow becomes a more comfortable passer in the NFL.
Logan Thomas
The hype train for Logan Thomas picked up speed during the offseason and we were not left disappointed after Week 1. Even the staunchest of Thomas truthers would not have predicted him leading The Washington Football Team in targets with eight, giving him a 26.7% target share. Thomas did not waste this opportunity, finishing the day with four receptions for 37 yards and converting his sole red zone target into a score.
This is the first week of solid production in Thomas’ short career which is why no one will be jumping to the conclusion that he will finish as a TE1. However, this situation reminds me of Darren Waller from 2019. A talented tight end on an offense lacking in outside weapons can act as the safety blanket to a quarterback in distress.
Honorable Mentions to the running backs who had a larger share of opportunities than expected…
Alexander Mattison, Carlos Hyde, Benny Snell
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