Tee Higgins is a Top-5 Dynasty Wide Receiver

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Tee Higgins is amongst the most polarizing young stars in dynasty football circles. Dynasty Football Factory Staff SF/TEP Dynasty Rankings have Higgins as the consensus WR5, equating to the 18th player overall or 2.06 in a 12-team startup. Today, we make a case for Tee Higgins‘ stability and future as a top-5 dynasty wide receiver.

SUBJECT

Tee Higgins, WR – Cincinnati Bengals

Alma Mater: Clemson

Draft Capital: 2020 Second-Round Pick (33rd Overall)

Current Age: 23

Years Pro: 2

MEASURABLES

Height: 6′ 4″

Weight: 216 lbs.

Arms: 34 1/8″

Hands: 9 1/4″

BMI: 26.3

ATHLETIC PROFILE

40 Yard Dash: 4.59s

40 Yard Top Speed: 17.82 MPH

20 Yard Split: 2.72s

10 Yard Split:`1.66s

Bench Press: N/A

Vertical Leap: 31.0”

Broad Jump: 10’¼”

20 Yard Shuttle: 4.53s

Three Cone: N/A

Speed Score: 101.3 (74th percentile)

Burst Score: 114.2 (14th Percentile)

Relative Athletic Score: 4.16

PAST PRODUCTION

Higgins’ relatively uninspiring Pro Day for Clemson kept him under the radar as a bulletproof first-round pick, allowing him to slide to the Bengals for the first selection of the second round. In his first season in the NFL, he amassed 67 receptions for 908 yards (13.6 YPR) and six touchdowns while catching passes from three different quarterbacks (Joe Burrow, Kyle Allen, Ryan Finley). Higgins’ 108 targets tailed only Tyler Boyd on the roster, although he had more yards and touchdowns than his veteran cohort. The rookie standout averaged 12.2 PPG, setting the stage for a sophomore breakout in the following season.

The arrival of generational receiving talent Ja’Marr Chase via the 2021 NFL Draft did nothing to stem Higgins’ ascent as a superstar receiver. With a healthy Burrow under center, Higgins recorded his first 1000-yard season, posting 74 receptions on 110 targets for 1,091 yards (14.7 YPR) and matching his rookie total of six touchdowns. Higgins was a monster force in the Bengals offense despite the rookie breakout of Chase. The second-year stud recorded 35.9% of the team’s air yards, ranked 13th in 2021. 

The former Clemson product excelled at every aspect in his second season, with his baseline efficiency numbers ranking in the top ten of virtually every category.

  • Yards Per Route Run: 2.43 (WR10)
  • Yards Per Target: 9.9 (WR8)
  • Yards Per Team Pass Attempt: 1.97 (WR8)
  • True Target Value: 5.71 (WR10)

He finished the 2021 season ranked top-12 in PPG, averaging 15.7 per over 14 contests and upping his rookie target share by an impressive total of 19.1% (WR44) to 23.9% (WR22) while sharing the field with several star players on the Bengals’ offense.  Higgins’ increased opportunity share and ability to earn high-quality targets amidst a stacked and crowded offense should instill plenty of confidence in dynasty managers moving forward.

SUPPORTING CAST

Every offensive possession starts with the quarterback, and the Bengals roster has one of the best young signal callers the NFL has to offer. Joe Burrow erupted in his first entire season as a starter after missing most of his rookie year to a catastrophic knee injury. The former first overall pick led the league in completion percentage at a surgical 70.4% rate, amassing 4611 passing yards (6th overall) and 34 touchdowns (8th overall). Burrow’s ceiling after another full year of recovery is limitless after taking the Bengals to a Super Bowl in 2021. His connection with Chase is undeniable as a former LSU alum, but managers should not dismiss Burrow’s affinity for Higgins as an equally valuable target.

Higgins averaged a slightly higher rate of targets per game than Chase last season, with the second-year wideout outpacing the rookie from 7.9 TGT/G to 7.5 TGT/G. There were justifiable concerns surrounding the Bengals’ offensive line in 2021, especially after the knee injury. The team has since made a complete turnaround from last season, rebuilding their offensive line as the most improved unit in the NFL, according to PFF’s grading system. The Bengals’ offensive line ranks eighth overall in PFF’s 2022 rankings, 12 spots up from their position at 20th overall to end the 2021 season. A bolstered offensive line means even more passing time for the pinpoint accurate Burrow to find his two stud receivers, ultimately increasing their potential opportunity shares on a more efficient offense.

Dynasty managers fear regression for Higgins as Chase progresses in his second season as a pro. JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) discovered that 4.3 wide receiver teammates finish within the top-24 players at the position in PPG yearly, and 1.6 teammates finish within the top-12 on average.

Unsurprisingly, Chase and Higgins themselves make up for one of those seasons, with the pair finishing as the WR5 and WR12 in PPG, respectively. They are a good bet to repeat their astounding performances in 2022, with the teammates barely entering their primes at 23 and 22 years old.

2022 BENGALS OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK

The NFC North will not yield an easy path to a repeat playoff run for the Bengals. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have re-upped on their talented defense and enter 2022 with a fully healthy offense after losing critical cogs to injury in 2021. The Steelers’ defense carried the team to a playoff berth last season and expects to be just as imposing in 2022. The Browns present no easy outs either with an imposing front seven, improved secondary, and stout run game. Should the Browns have Deshaun Watson at any point in the season, they could become front runners to win the division.

Head coach Zac Taylor will need to rely heavily on his newly upgraded offensive line and a trio of uber-talented passing weapons in Burrow, Chase, and Higgins. Vegas Odds have the Bengals o/u win total set at 9.5 games, half a game below their 2021 record of 10-7. Close contests led Taylor to expand the offensive pace last season, calling a pass play 61.1% on average when games were tied. Playing six games against stiff defensive competition should help increase the passing output for the Bengals’ offense, subsequently benefiting the production of their top two wideouts. The team ranked 20th in pass attempts per game in 2021 and still produced two top-12 wide receivers in PPG. If Taylor and company let Burrow loose behind a sturdy offensive line in 2022, Higgins and Chase could reach unexpected heights.

Furthermore, regression is not guaranteed for either player as both have matched their increased opportunities with tremendous efficiency and relatively predictable output. If anything, a slight decrease in scoring is likely for Chase as he scored 1.40 fantasy points over expected in 2021 due to an unpredictably high 13 receiving touchdowns. The most likely outcome would indicate an increase in peripheral stats for both pass-catchers with a more balanced touchdown distribution.

ADP REVIEW

*ADP Via SleeperHQ*

Position Rank: WR10

Overall Rank: 36.0

Dynasty Half PPR ADP: 31.1

Dynasty PPR ADP: 31.3

Dynasty Superflex ADP: 35.8

Redraft Half PPR ADP: 33.6

Redraft PPR ADP: 33.8

Redraft Superflex ADP: 47.1

Higgins’ average draft position reflects his stunning second season with confidence in continued growth. His startup cost is quickly rising but still presents a palatable price with managers able to grab a certified top-5 positional asset in the middle of the third round.

DYNASTY MARKET EVALUATION

Position Rank: WR6

Overall Rank: 24.0

Dynasty Value: 5702

Value Adjacent Assets:

TOP OF THE CLASS

The 2020 draft class was loaded with wide receiver talent, setting a record with 37 receivers selected, 13 of which came within the first two rounds. Higgins ranks second behind only Justin Jefferson in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, targets, and target percentage in their first two seasons. The Bengals’ 23-year-old star has outproduced fellow 2020 classmate Ceedee Lamb in nearly every advanced metric yet is continuously ranked below the Cowboys’ first-round selection.

Tee Higgins 2020 Advanced Receiving Splits:

  • 19.1% Target Share (WR44)
  • 21.8% Target Rate (WR40)
  • 27.2% Air Yards Share (WR39)
  • 11.7 Average Depth of Target (WR41)
  • 1.83 Yards Per Route Run (WR39)
  • 8.4 Yards Per Target (WR50)
  • 1.56 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (WR30)

CeeDee Lamb Advanced 2020 Receiving Splits:

  • 18.0% Target Share (WR 52)
  • 21.6% Target Rate (WR43)
  • 21.7% Air Yards Share (WR56)
  • 8.9 Average Depth of Target (WR76)
  • 1.82 Yards Per Route Run (WR43)
  • 8.4 Yards Per Target (WR50)
  • 1.46 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (WR36)

Tee Higgins 2021 Advanced Receiving Splits:

  • 19.1% Target Share (WR44)
  • 24.5% Target Rate (WR33)
  • 35.9% Air Yards Share (WR13)
  • 11.8 Average Depth of Target (WR26)
  • 2.43 Yards Per Route Run (WR10)
  • 9.9 Yards Per Target (WR8)
  • 1.97 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (WR8)

CeeDee Lamb 2021 Advanced Receiving Splits:

  • 20.4% Target Share (WR36)
  • 24.7% Target Rate (WR32)
  • 24.3% Air Yards Share (WR50)
  • 9.4 Average Depth of Target (WR65)
  • 2.27 Yards Per Route Run (WR12)
  • 9.2 Yards Per Target (WR19)
  • 1.70 Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (WR20)

Higgins deserves the same recognition as Lamb amongst the league’s top assets, if not more. He has outperformed his draft mates at every turn and possesses an undeniable upside on a Super Bowl contending roster with the league’s reigning accuracy champ helming the offense.

FUTURE OUTLOOK/RANGE OF OUTCOMES

Higgins’ range of outcomes resides amongst an elite company of league-winning fantasy assets. The soon-to-be third-year wideout has exemplified an elite production ceiling in his first two seasons, comparing favorably to career arcs of similar alpha-sized receivers with top-12 production in the early stages of their career. His closest confidence trajectories via Broto Fantasy Football’s player comparison model are A.J. Green, D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Keenan Allen, and Cooper Kupp.

Higgins’s dynasty value is insulated by several stable factors making him a solid foundation to build around on any dynasty roster. His job security and role on a top offense are unquestioned, aiding in his continued development with Burrow delivering high-value targets.

CONTRACT SITUATION

Tee Higgins Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

*Rookie Contract*

Current Age: 23

Signing Age: 21

Year Signed: 2020

Free Agent: 2024 (Unrestricted)

Contract: 4 YRS, $8.69M, $2.17M AAV, $3.87M Signing Bonus, $5.88M Guaranteed

The Bengals are receiving Higgins services on a ludicrously cheap deal compared to the current market. Although that allows the team to compete in a win-now window with a stacked offense it does not bode well for their ability to re-sign their best assets. The wide receiver market changed forever after the largest wide receiver contracts in NFL history were allocated to the league’s top pass-catchers this offseason. I recently evaluated the Past and Present Wide Receiver Market, highlighting the difficulties for teams to retain their top receiving options in the current contract climate while presenting an analysis on expected production in contract years as well as post-extension. The Bengals have not one but two young wide receivers that will be due for record-breaking extensions in back-to-back years.

With Chase on a fifth-year rookie option, the team is afforded one more year of leniency but will likely extend the transcendent star as soon as the option is available. Chase’s inevitable second contract will closely coincide with Burrow’s fifth-year rookie extension and Higgins’ final guaranteed year as the latter is set to become a free agent in 2024. Higgins will be just 25 years old in his extension year and will surely be one of the hottest free agents on the market that offseason. The Bengals will have minimal cap space after the Burrow and Chase extensions and will likely have to part ways with their selection from the 2020 NFL Draft.

Higgins’ potential exit from the Bengals should do nothing to hinder a manager’s confidence in his talent. He’s already proven as a rookie to be able to produce despite poor quarterback play. Higgins has hit all of the necessary thresholds for predictive elite production in his first two seasons and should continue to put up WR1 numbers throughout his career. He is a bonafide game-changer with intangible upside. A different jersey on his back would not change a thing.

CONCLUSION

Tee Higgins is a top-5 dynasty wide receiver with insulated career value. He has the ceiling of a consistent WR1 option with infinite upside. The maturing star is amongst the most stable assets on the dynasty market, with room to increase in value in his third season. If he maintains his current trajectory, Higgins will be valued as a top-5 positional asset for the remainder of his bright career.

SIGNOFF

Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

Check out my other works as an Author at Dynasty Football Factory.

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