Welcome to part two of my weekly publication!
As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense.
In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
With that, let’s get started!
Recap of Week 4
What a brutal week. It wasn’t just that we went 1-2 again, it was that we were about 20 total seconds away from going 3-0.
Beckham absolutely dominated against a porous Cowboys defense, but be wary of his matchup this week against the much stingier Colts. Gerald Everett sniped a goal-line touchdown from Darrell Henderson on the first drive of the game, and unfortunately, the Rams never got their offense going again. Dak, meanwhile, had me hopeful until he threw an interception on his final drive. What a killer.
This week, we’ll look to rebound and right the ship. Let’s get to it!
Last Week: 1-2
Overall: 4-8
Longshot: 0-4
Antonio Gibson Over 2.5 Receptions (-112)
Well, it finally happened. Rivera pulled the plug on the Haskins experiment and has named Kyle Allen as the starter moving forward. My colleagues did a great job covering what this means for Washington, but I’m here to talk about the degenerate side of things.
Allen took over as starting quarterback for the Panthers last year after Cam Newton was lost to injury. During that span, Christian McCaffrey did not have a single game with fewer than three receptions. McCaffrey was targeted so much, in fact, that he set a career-high in receptions with 119 on the year.
Now, admittedly, Gibson is not CMC. But, Gibson has already cleared this line in the past two weeks. A new quarterback with a history of checking down to his running back makes me confident that he will eclipse this line yet again.
Ben Roethlisberger Under 275.5 Passing Yards (-112)
As much as I have preached my disdain for the Eagles this year, I have to give them credit in one area. They do not let up many passing yards to their opponents. The Eagles currently rank 18th in the league allowing, on average, 243.5 passing yards per game.
Now, before you grab your pitchforks, this could be a by-product of many things including poor quarterback play, game script, etc. But consider for one moment that Joe Burrow, who is breaking NFL records left and right, only threw for 312 yards in an overtime tie to Philadelphia.
Whether it’s because Big Ben and the Steelers run the clock out after taking an early lead, or because Ben struggles because his receivers are banged up, I imagine the Eagles to hold another opponent to yet another mediocre outing.
Malcolm Brown Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
I know I spent last week hyping up Darrell Henderson, so this will surely come back to bite me. But this total is just so low.
Malcolm Brown currently leads the Rams in rushing attempts on the year. McVay has explained that Brown has a defined role in this offense that will get him touches on a weekly basis. Even if he grinds out four yards-per-carry, it would only take eight carries to clear this meager total. Assuming the Rams take an early lead on Washington, it would not surprise me to see Brown get some serious burn in the fourth quarter to run out the clock.
Week 4 Longshot Pick
Laviska Shenault to score Anytime Touchdown (+325)
Did you know Shenault was the only rookie wide receiver to score a touchdown in week one? Or that he leads the Jaguars’ wide receivers in red zone targets? Shenault is certainly getting the opportunity, and his stats would suggest he is making the most of them.
The Texans are fairly middle-of-the-pack in terms of passing touchdowns allowed on the year with 1.8. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is averaging two passing touchdowns per game. After undergoing a major leadership change, it is a relative unknown on how the Texans will respond as a team. If you’re looking for a longshot, why not take a shot on this talented rookie?
For more from Stephen, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Biscuits.
