Kyle Pitts

NFL Player Props: Thursday Night Football Preview

GAME PREVIEW

Thursday Night Football is back with an NFC South showdown between division rivals as the bottom-feeding Panthers (2-7) host the overperforming Falcons (4-5). Betting lines favor the visiting Falcons by 3.0 points with the projected Over/Under scoring total set at 41.0.

The Panthers have lost four of their last five contests including a brutal three-point loss to the Falcons just two games ago. The team is averaging a mere 305.2 scrimmage yards per contest (31st) with 184.9 passing yards (28thth) and 105.3 rushing yards (22nd). The Panthers have struggled to find paydirt all season, putting up a pedestrian total of 19.9 points per contest, ranked 23rd. They have the lowest 3rd down conversion rate in the league at just 26.7%. Their defense is equally mediocre, conceding just 379.3 scrimmage yards (23rd) and 25.3 points per game (29th). The defense has fared slightly better against the pass than the run, allowing 231.0 passing yards (21st) compared to 139.3 rushing yards (28th) on average. P.J. Walker will reportedly remain under center despite being benched and outperformed by Baker Mayfield in the Panthers’ previous contest.

The Falcons are out-kicking their coverage, so to speak, with a 4-5 record and 2nd place ranking in the NFC South. They have been lethargic in the passing department, putting up a lowly 157.2 passing yards per game (30th) but have supplemented that production with a top-ranked rushing game, tallying 162.9 rushing yards (4th) on average. The Falcons have been surprisingly efficient when in scoring position, averaging 24.1 points per contest, tied for 8th in the NFL this season. The defense has offered little help towards the Falcons’ unexpected record as they allow 416.9 scrimmage yards (31st) and 25.0 points per game (26th). They are the worst team in the NFL at stemming the passing production of opposing offenses, conceding 300.0 yards per game (32nd). The defensive front has held its own against the run, allowing 106.9 rushing yards (8th) to their opponents.

The Falcons’ high-powered rushing attack and top-ranked rushing defense should be more than enough to hand the Panthers their eighth loss of the season in what should be a slow-paced game with minimal scoring and passing production.

GAME PREDICTION

Moneyline: Falcons

Scoring Prediction: Falcons 19 – Panthers 13

Over/Under: Under 41.0

Now that we have introduced the matchup let’s dive into some high-upside player props for this NFC South clash.

D’ONTA FOREMAN OVER 53.5 RUSHING YARDS

Betting Odds: -110

D’Onta Foreman rushed for 118 yards in back-to-back contests during Weeks 7 and 8 but fell flat in Week 9, tallying 23 yards on seven attempts (46.7 RSH%). Foreman is a volume rusher that needs the insurance of a team-leading opportunity share to buoy his below-average efficiency. Luckily, Foreman is staring down the barrel of a more positive game script than his previous Week 9 matchup. As mentioned above, the Falcons’ defense has held back opposing run games this season but they still allow 2.0% more than the expected average production to the position per contest. Foreman has averaged 86.3 rushing yards per game since being named the starting running back. The Panthers’ key to victory will be by pounding the rock and controlling the clock.

KYLE PITTS OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS

Betting Odds: +105

The Falcons are averaging just 22.3 pass attempts per contest (30th) and 21.3 pass attempts over their last three games (31st). After all, there is a reason that this betting line is offering plus money. There are rarely enough pass attempts to go around to support a positive night of production for Kyle Pitts despite the young star tight end boasting a 27.2% target share (TE2). However, the generational product has caught three or more receptions in three of his last four games. His best game of the season came two weeks ago where he posted five receptions on nine targets for 80 yards and a touchdown against, you guessed it, the Panthers’ defense. 

GRADY JARRETT OVER 0.5 SACKS

Betting Odds: +205

Grady Jarrett enters the Falcons’ Week 10 matchup with 18 solo tackles (11th), 4.5 sacks (12th), 17 QB Pressures (8th), and eight tackles for a loss (2nd). The talented edge rusher has been blowing up offensive lines all season, wreaking havoc on opposing backfields with tremendous pressure. The Panthers have allowed 21 sacks this season (2.3/G) but that number has spiked to 3.0 sacks per game with P.J. Walker under center. Jarrett should have no issues finding his way to the quarterback in this one. Bettors should be reminded that the prop stands whether it is a single solo sack or two assisted (0.5) sacks.

*BONUS TOUCHDOWN PROP*

KYLE PITTS ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER

Betting Odds: +245

Bettors can boost their odds with a Kyle Pitts anytime touchdown prop. Pitts has seen team-high six red zone targets over the last four games, finding the endzone twice in those contests.

Please remember to always bet responsibly. Know your limit and play within it.

Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

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