The last undefeated team in the NFL puts their win streak on the line as the Eagles (7-0) travel to face the hometown Texans (1-5-1) in a lopsided matchup. Betting lines favor the visiting Eagles by 14.0 points with a projected over/under scoring total of 45.5 between the two teams. NFL prop bets will follow later in this article.
The visiting Eagles have rattled off seven straight wins, including back-to-back beatdowns of the Cowboys and Steelers. The team is averaging 409.9 scrimmage yards per contest (3rd) with 245.9 passing yards (10th) and 149.6 rushing yards (6th). The Eagles are putting up a blistering 28.0 points per contest, ranked third in the NFL this season. Their defense is equally masterful, conceding just 321.6 scrimmage yards (6th) and 16.9 points per game (4th). The defense has fared much better against the pass than the run, allowing 183.7 passing yards (4th) compared to 114.7 rushing yards (15th) on average.
The Texans have struggled to lift themselves out of the putrid basement that is the AFC South as they rank dead last in a weakened division. They have been lackadaisical on offense, putting up a lowly 307.0 scrimmage yards (31st) per contest with 196.3 passing yards (25th) and 92.4 rushing yards (26th). The Texans rarely find themselves in scoring position, averaging a mere 16.6 points per contest, ranked 29th. The defense has not fared any better, conceding 414.0 scrimmage yards (30th) and 22.0 points (17th) to opposing offenses. The Texans defense has looked slightly better against passing metrics than rushing as they allow a whopping 185.6 rushing yards per contest, ranked dead last in the NFL.
The Eagles’ high-powered offense and stonewall defense should be more than enough to hand the Texans their sixth loss of the season in a one-way showing of the league’s top team.
Scoring Prediction: 31-9
Over/Under: Under 45.5
Now that we have introduced the matchup let’s dive into some high-upside player props for this cross-conference clash.
MILES SANDERS OVER 75.5 RUSHING YARDS
Betting Odds: -120
The Texans’ defense is the number one matchup for rushing production from both the running back and quarterback positions. The team concedes 185.6 rushing yards, equating to 77.0% over the expected average for the position. Miles Sanders is averaging 80.4 yards per contest (RB8), with only one game below the 75-yard mark. The Eagles’ offense should run through the Texans, both figuratively and literally, making Sanders a smash play in a positive game script.
DAMEON PIERCE UNDER 67.5 RUSHING YARDS
Betting Odds: -110
Dameon Pierce posted four consecutive games with over 100 scrimmage yards before falling flat in Week 8 with a 51-yard outing against the Titans. Pierce will now face his most difficult challenge of the 2022 season as he stares down an imposing Eagles front seven. The Eagles are the 22nd-ranked team in Production Over Average, allowing -4.7% below to expected total to the position this season. The Texans will be forced to abandon the run early, leaving Pierce as an honorary pass blocker if the Eagles can hang an early lead on the home team.
DALLAS GOEDERT OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS
Betting Odds: +115
There are only three things in life I feel remotely certain about. Death, Taxes, and betting overs against the Texans. Dallas Goedert averages 4.6 receptions per contest on a 19.7% target share (TE6) this season. The Eagles’ tight end has surpassed five receptions in 4/7 games this season, including three times in his last four contests. The Texans’ defense concedes 4.4 receptions and 42 yards to the tight end position on average but has yet to face an elite receiving threat like Goedert this season. This betting line holds inherent risk knowing the chance for a blowout and low passing volume but receiving plus odds on a prop against the Texans is too good to pass up.
*BONUS ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN PROP*
EAGLES D/ST ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER
Betting Odds: +375
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