We at DFF hope all your 2022 dynasty football league dreams came true. But the grind never stops. We have a saying at DFF #AlwaysBeBuilding. It’s time to beckon in the new year by strategizing your approach to the 2023 rookie draft. Where is the strength of this class and what spots do you need to be at to get your guy? In this article, I will provide my initial view of how I see the draft playing out and what spots the value is at in version 1.0. I will do deeper dives into some of these players as the off-season wears on.
For this exercise, we will use a Superflex, PPR, TE Premium format.
Tier 1
Bijan Robinson
This rookie draft has a clear 1.01, creating separation from the field. In dynasty circles, he should emerge as a near-unanimous selection first overall even in Superflex leagues. Robinson is a generational type prospect in the mold of Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey. The NFL has evolved so I doubt Bijan will get top 10 draft capital, but in the evolved 2023 game, a running back picked inside the top 20 is equitable to a top 10 back a decade ago. The consensus mock draft from the NFL mock draft database has him going at 15 overall right now. Robinson was the number one running back recruit in the country coming out of high school. He has a prototype size of 6’0 and 220 pounds. Bijan’s production was elite at Texas compiling 3410 yards rushing, 805 yards receiving, and 41 touchdowns in his three-year college career. Robinson finished with a college record of 104 broken tackles this season. He should be a true three-down bell cow that gets all the high-value touches in an age where few of these exist any longer.
Tier 2
Bryce Young
If the Texans get the top overall pick in the draft, Young is likely to be their selection. Like Robinson, Young came into college at Alabama as the top player in his position in the class. His biggest red flag is his size at 6’0. He has mobility but may not be a full-fledged Konami quarterback. Young threw for over 8000 yards and had 75 touchdowns in this three-year career. He is a safe bet to have a long NFL career as a starting quarterback.
Tier 3
CJ Stroud
Anthony Richardson
Jahmyr Gibbs
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
After the top two which are pretty clear-cut, it gets more interesting.
Stroud will likely be a top 5 NFL pick. He produced two consecutive years with a quarterback rating over 175. His biggest knock is that he may have been a product of the talent surrounding him with first-round prospects Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr, and Emeka Egbuka as his wide receivers.
Gibbs has an Alvin Kamara-type ceiling. He is a great receiving prospect but what role he will have in the NFL is a question. He has size concerns at 200 pounds, so it is questionable whether he gets a significant rushing workload. Gibbs produced an outstanding 18 percent receiving target share. As you will see in round two of this series this class has excellent depth at the running back position. So I don’t feel like you need to fall in love with any particular player outside of Bijan Robinson.
This may be high to some for Anthony Richardson but if he gets first-round draft capital, I am not sure how you do not have him in the top five of Superflex leagues. He has some major question marks as a passing quarterback but he is an athletic marvel with immense rushing upside. Richardson is a true Konami quarterback in the mold of Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Fields. He has the tools to be a league winner. There is no player in this rookie draft with a bigger canyon between his floor and ceiling than Richardson. If you like a risk that can produce a big reward, he is your man.
I am not sure what else you need to see out of Njigba other than this graphic right here.
You can twist yourself into a pretzel overanalyzing prospects but sometimes it is crystal clear. Even removing the 2 additional games, Njigba’s production was ahead of the two best rookie wide receivers in the NFL this year. Nijigba achieved the second-best receiving yards per team pass attempt in this class despite playing next to Wilson and Olave. I can see a Keenan Allen-type career for JSN as a consistent perennial top-20 fantasy wide receiver.
Tier 4
Jordan Addison
Quentin Johnston
Addison is so good he completely transformed Kenny Pickett into a first-round NFL selection. He broke out as an 18-year-old freshman. His size is not ideal at 6’0, 175. 2.94 Best season RYPTPA is solid but not elite.
Johnston burst on the scene with a 20-year-old sophomore-year breakout. He is a physical freak at 6’4 and 215 pounds and has excellent speed. This size-speed-production combination is unlike any other wide receiver in this class.
Tier 5
Michael Mayer
Sean Tucker
Zach Charbonnet
Will Levis
These are tight-end premium rankings and Mayer has the pedigree to be a top 5 dynasty tight end from the day he is drafted. Tight end is a wasteland right now in the NFL so to be able to get a set and forget tight end like Mayer is highly valuable. Mayer commanded an incredible 33% target share this year at Notre Dame. He eclipsed 800 yards in both his sophomore and junior seasons achieving a coveted sophomore season breakout year.
Tucker was only a three-star recruit out of high school so he has never had a great deal of hype. Tucker has track speed and could post a sub 4.4 forty. Tucker’s production has been outstanding at Syracuse finishing with 3182 yards rushing, 622 yards receiving, and 31 touchdowns. He is smallish so he may not get all the goal-line work.
Charbonnet had an excellent senior season to cement his status. The fact he stayed all four years is certainly a red flag but he flashed consistency and a higher receiving floor to make him more attractive. He has superior contact balance and prototype NFL size at 6’1 220.
To be frank, Levis scares me. Everyone acknowledges he is raw but his college production is scary. He just doesn’t seem to have the mental acumen needed at the position with very inconsistent play and loads of mistakes. His arm talent is Herbertesque and NFL scouts will fall in love with that. He also doesn’t fit the mold of a Konami QB.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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