Past Production
Mike Gesicki was a productive tight end at Penn State. But, as a prospect, he was known for his otherworldly athleticism. He lit the combine on fire, breaking several records and finishing at or above the 95th percentile in Speed Score, Burst Score, and Agility Score.
Gesicki had a disappointing rookie campaign, recording just 22 receptions in 16 games and topping 40 receiving yards just once in 2018. The first several weeks of 2019 were more of the same for Gesicki. He just wasn’t being utilized. However, he finally got his opportunity when Preston Williams suffered an ACL tear midseason. He scored five TDs in the final six games and earned 6+ targets in eight of the final nine weeks of the season.
With just 570 yards and five TDs, it’s hard to say Mike Gesicki truly “broke out” in 2019, but he was third at the position in deep targets, seventh in average target distance, and fourth in contested catch rate. Unfortunately, only 70.8% of his targets were catchable (39th among TEs). Otherwise, we may have seen an even more impressive stat line.
2020 Outlook
The Dolphins attempted 615 passes in 2019, the seventh-most in the NFL. At first glance, it’s easy to assume that their pass-heavy approach was fully attributable to negative game scripts. However, the team was number one in pass rate while leading, throwing 60% of the time even when they were ahead on the scoreboard. This data suggests that, regardless of any defensive improvements this offseason, the Dolphins will attempt plenty of passes in 2020.
Enter Mike Gesicki. Preston Williams is still recovering from ACL surgery, Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns have opted out of the season, and the team doesn’t have a prolific receiving back. The Dolphins will be relying heavily on Gesicki to contribute. His 89 targets in 2019 were already 7th at the position, but he could conceivably command even more this year considering the team’s lack of receiving talent. He’ll have a great chance to beat his current ADP of TE15, especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick expected to start the season.
Dynasty Analysis
Go out and acquire Mike Gesicki while you still can. He’s an uber-athletic, 24-year-old tight end linked to an improving team and a promising rookie QB. With a strong 2020 season, his value could skyrocket into the top-10 or even top-5 at the position. He’s a top candidate, along with players like T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant, to become the next George Kittle or Mark Andrews.
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