Michael Penix Jr. | Washington 6’2 216 lbs. May 8, 2000 (23)
Michael Penix Jr. was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons, becoming the 4th quarterback and 8th overall player in the 2024 NFL Draft.
COLLEGE PRODUCTION
Michael Penix had an extensive 6-year college career thanks to injury and COVID years. The good news is that Penix started a majority of 5 of those seasons when he was healthy, both for Indiana and for Washington. Penix’s true breakout was with the aforementioned Huskies, where he threw for over 4600 yards in back-to-back seasons and had 31 and 35 touchdowns in his time there. Penix added little to no production on the ground.
Penix has multiple seasons on his resume being a high-level producer as a pocket passer. There’s promise that his style could translate to the league to the downfield aggression in his college game.
FILM
Here’s an excerpt of my breakdown of Michael Penix Jr. from the DFF Declassified Rookie Draft Survival Guide:
“Penix is definitely a playmaker, but in a wildly different sense. He’s a true dart thrower from the pocket, but he’s incredibly limited to just that style of play. It’s pretty rare that a quarterback prospect produces the way he did this past season, and I’d argue it’s even more impressive that he did it while providing zero rushing threat in the dropback game. Penix’s combination of pinpoint accuracy from the pocket with a rocket of an arm allows him to regularly make extremely high-level throws. His ball placement is elite at all levels of the field, but it especially stands out in his deep and deep-intermediate accuracy. Penix regularly drops in deep shots with perfect touch into tight windows or through tough man coverage.
However, those strengths are just about everything there is to support Penix as a potential NFL caliber passer. While his deep accuracy is incredibly impressive, he doesn’t really possess other traits that differentiate himself from an average prospect. As anyone who’s watched him can tell you, the main hole that stands out in Penix’s game is his lack of mobility. This limits him as a runner, of course, but it also limits his ability to create out of structure. His pocket movement is pretty solid, but it’s mostly only considered impressive relative to his lack of open field explosiveness. This also extends to his footwork, which occasionally isn’t quick enough under pressure, and can result in him throwing from weird bases which throws off the entire mechanics of some reps for Penix (and can thus lead to occasional inaccuracies).
A big reason for all of this is Penix’s extensive injury history, as he was fairly mobile before tearing his ACL twice (and hurting both shoulders). It’s unfortunate that this has changed his play style so much, but his ability to eventually find such success at the college level as to be a Heisman candidate is a testament to his intangibles and toughness. Not only that, his recent pro day performance brings some light to his untapped raw athletic ability. I’m hopeful that he could start to translate that speed and explosiveness into his game more at the pro level.
My hope is that Penix finds a team to buy in and construct their offense around his strengths, but this is probably the only win condition for Penix in the NFL that doesn’t involve a massive overhaul of his play style at age 24 or older.”
ATHLETIC TESTING
At the combine, Michael Penix Jr. measured 6’2” and 216 lbs.
He did not test at the combine but gave an impressive showing in throwing drills.
He also followed this up with an impressive pro day, where he posted an unofficial sub-4.60 40-yard dash, as well as a 36.5 inch vertical and a 10’5 broad jump (both which were higher than any QB at the combine). This indicates that there may be some athletic upside to Penix’s profile as a prospect that hasn’t shown up yet analytically or on tape.
DRAFT ANALYSIS
Michael Penix Jr. was selected with the 8th-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons.
This draft capital far exceeds expectations for Penix. Atlanta did not seem to be on the radar to be drafting a quarterback in the first round especially, and for them to take Penix over J.J. McCarthy (who has been mocked in the top 5 consistently) is a massive vote of confidence in their evaluation of Penix.
Now with some time to let this landing spot marinate, I still have not been able to wrap my head around just what the Atlanta Falcons are thinking. This is not another Jordan Love in Green Bay scenario- Michael Penix will be 24 years old by week 1 of next year, and likely will start in that game, barring a miracle achilles recovery from Kirk Cousins.
Will Penix win the job and never look back? A la Dak Prescott and Tony Romo? Well, Cousins isn’t really the incumbent in any of the sense that Romo or the aforementioned Aaron Rodgers were at the time of their first-round successors’ selections.
What’s probably more likely is that Kirk will return to the starting job he’s being paid for, at least for the first 2 seasons, and then whenever the team decides they’re ready, Penix will take over the reins. Unfortunately, I’m still unsure of this decision, mostly because I feel Penix has pretty much shown us all he’s got. The idea of him making his first start at age 26 just seems like poor process even if the Falcons don’t expect to be picking in the top 10 again anytime soon.
FANTASY INSIGHTS
I have Michael Penix Jr. ranked as the number 6 quarterback in this class for projected future dynasty value. He has wildly high upside in Superflex formats, being in such a talented, young offense. However, there’s an added risk that you are drafting him with no idea when he will actually start scoring points for you.
Michael Penix Jr. should go off the board in rookie drafts in the mid-second round, around the 2.03-2.07.
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