One of the tools long known to the daily fantasy sports (DFS) community, but not often used by the season-long fantasy sports player, is how to use the Las Vegas gambling lines for fantasy. The point spread, or “line,” on sporting events can help you as a fantasy owner when it’s time to build a DFS lineup or set your weekly roster in season long. In short, you can look at a projected game total and point spread and determine the points expected to be scored in any given contest.
For example, if team A is a 10 point favorite over team B and the game total is 48, you can expect that team A will score 29, and team B will score 19. This is in no way an exact science, nor is it accurate 100% of the time, but it will give you a general idea of what to expect from teams on any given week. That same week, team C might be a 7 point favorite over team D with a game total of 37, which gives team C an implied point total of 22 while team D is expected to score only 15 points.
This is a very simplistic breakdown, but using these examples, we can see that team A has an implied point total of 29 points while team D is looking at 15 points. Using these examples, more often than not, it would benefit you to use players from team A rather than team D.
Last season, we touched on every game, but this year Rick Kerns, James Hanmore, Spencer Scoled, and myself will be providing you with a short breakdown of only our favorite plays of the week for gambling purposes. We’ll also give a breakdown of each team’s projected point total and the point total for each game as well. That should help give you a nice foundation to work from as you make your start/sit decisions for the week. Thank you and good luck.
(last week: 1-1/season: 10-3)
- No picks this week
(last week: 2-0/season: 5-8-1)
- No picks this week
JOHN DI BARI
(last week: 1-2/season: 11-14-1)
(last week: 1-4/season: 11-18-2)
A couple “shoulda woulda couldas” last week, unfortunately. I particularly enjoyed the Bengals choke-fest.
In no way should this be your primary go to when making lineup decisions, but this can be a great tool to target sleepers for DFS and as tie-breaker when deciding between multiple players in season-long leagues. The games and teams in green should be strongly considered; the yellow also shows a favorable game script for fantasy. White is middle of the road. Orange games and teams have much less upside regarding scoring opportunities, while red should give you some concern.
TARGETS AND FADES
At this point, it’s safe to say the Bills and Titans will be at the bottom of projected totals each and every week. Conversely, we will probably continue to see the Pats, Saints, Chiefs, and Rams at the top. That makes the Panthers a bit of an outlier that is explained away by facing the awful Buccaneers defense. The Browns and lines seem to be prime candidates for garbage time production and backdoor covers.
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Please be a responsible gambler!