Dynasty Football Factory

Look at the Lines: NFL Week 9

One of the tools long known to the daily fantasy sports (DFS) community, but not often used by the season-long fantasy sports player, is how to use the Las Vegas gambling lines for fantasy. The point spread, or “line,” on sporting events can help you as a fantasy owner when it’s time to build a DFS lineup or set your weekly roster in season long. In short, you can look at a projected game total and point spread and determine the points expected to be scored in any given contest.

For example, if team A is a 10 point favorite over team B and the game total is 48, you can expect that team A will score 29, and team B will score 19. This is in no way an exact science, nor is it accurate 100% of the time, but it will give you a general idea of what to expect from teams on any given week. That same week, team C might be a 7 point favorite over team D with a game total of 37, which gives team C an implied point total of 22 while team D is expected to score only 15 points.

This is a very simplistic breakdown, but using these examples, we can see that team A has an implied point total of 29 points while team D is looking at 15 points. Using these examples, more often than not, it would benefit you to use players from team A rather than team D.

Last season, we touched on every game, but this year Rick KernsJames HanmoreSpencer Scoledand myself will be providing you with a short breakdown of only our favorite plays of the week for gambling purposes. We’ll also give a breakdown of each team’s projected point total and the point total for each game as well. That should help give you a nice foundation to work from as you make your start/sit decisions for the week. Thank you and good luck.

 

RICK KERNS

(last week: 1-1/season: 10-3)

  • No picks this week

 

JAMES HANMORE

(last week: 2-0/season: 5-8-1)

  • No picks this week

JOHN DI BARI

(last week: 1-2/season: 11-14-1)

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings -5
The Lions have won two straight in Minnesota, and I don’t see it becoming three. The Lions are game and should hang in this division contest, but -5 seems like it’s a little low to me. I’m not necessarily low on Detroit or high on the Vikes here; I’m strictly playing the number, which I thought should be around 8.5. I think Minnesota wins by a touchdown.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens 47.5
Looking at a projected final score of 22.25 to 25.25, I don’t see where the points come from. When the Steelers have visited Baltimore, the final score hasn’t gone over 47.5 since 2007- when Steve McNair was still quarterbacking the Ravens (the finals total was only 48, fyi). Both teams know what’s on the line, with a win leaving both teams sitting at five wins along with the idle Bengals. I expect an AFC North slugfest, played close to the vest with minimal scoring opportunities.
Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 @ Cleveland Browns
The Browns are once again in turmoil, seeing both their head coach and offensive coordinator fired after last weekend. I don’t see them getting everything together and on the same page as one of the NFL’s best teams comes to town. They might get their act together eventually, but not this weekend. I look for the Chiefs to steamroll the home team.
 
Vikings -5   
Steelers/Ravens under 47.5
Chiefs -8.5

 

SPENCER SCOLED

(last week: 1-4/season: 11-18-2)

A couple “shoulda woulda couldas” last week, unfortunately. I particularly enjoyed the Bengals choke-fest.

Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 @ Cleveland Browns 51.5
KC is putting up stupid points. They have scored fewer than 30 points once all season. Once. Their soft defense should offer points to the Browns as I can only imagine the new coaching regime will allow Baker to throw downfield often. The Chiefs will easily score early and often against a Browns squad that has allowed an average of 32 points per game in their last three starts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55 @ Carolina Panthers -6.5
Cam looks fantastic right now, and I’m happy to see D.J. Moore breakout. This offense is clicking, and this game has divisional significance for the Panthers who trail the Saints by a game. Cam should have his way with this soft Tampa Bay defense. With that said, Fitzmagic is back! I still see the Panthers rolling the Bucs, but this should be a great game through the air with some bombs being exchanged.
Tennesse Titans @ Dallas Cowboys -5.5
I don’t like either team this year, but Dallas looks like the better team right now. The Titans are one of the worst teams on offense, and there are no signs of improvement. I don’t think this bye week will fix them either. The lone bright spot has been their defense, but you won’t win games if your offense does nothing. I like the addition of Cooper, not because I like Cooper, but it just gives Dak someone else to throw to, giving Zeke more space to breathe. I can see this being a low-scoring, one-sided game.
Chiefs -8.5
Chiefs/Browns Over 51.5
Panthers -6.5
Buccaneers/Panthers Over 55
Cowboys -5.5

 

PROJECTED TOTALS

In no way should this be your primary go to when making lineup decisions, but this can be a great tool to target sleepers for DFS and as tie-breaker when deciding between multiple players in season-long leagues. The games and teams in green should be strongly considered; the yellow also shows a favorable game script for fantasy. White is middle of the road. Orange games and teams have much less upside regarding scoring opportunities, while red should give you some concern.

TARGETS AND FADES

At this point, it’s safe to say the Bills and Titans will be at the bottom of projected totals each and every week. Conversely, we will probably continue to see the Pats, Saints, Chiefs, and Rams at the top. That makes the Panthers a bit of an outlier that is explained away by facing the awful Buccaneers defense. The Browns and lines seem to be prime candidates for garbage time production and backdoor covers.

 

If you’re looking to place some bets on this weekend’s games head over to GT Bets, an Official Sponsor of the Dynasty Football Factory. GTBets.eu  is giving you a Signup Bonus of 100% CASH up to $500 on the 1st deposit, and 50% up to $500 on the second deposit!GTBets.eu  is also giving you a Favorite Team Point Discounts – NFL, College Football, NBA, and College Basketball. (Free ½ point on 2 Teams in each league mentioned above for the entire regular season) Simply add FACTORY in the “referred by” field to get free money!

Please be a responsible gambler!

jdibari

Chicagoan living in Las Vegas. Fantasy Football writer & Director of In-Season Analysis for Dynasty Football Factory, blogger for USFantasy and contributor to TheFakeHockey. Member FSWA.

View all jdibari's Posts

Leave a Comment

(required)

(required)