In part one of this article, found here, I talked about players who excelled in the first half of the season but not the second half. I was initially going to do a part two, consisting of players who broke out in the second half of the season; however, there are too many of those players to limit myself to one article on the subject. Also, players that break out late are even more likely to be relevant in 2020 redraft leagues than those who broke out early. Therefore, I will do two separate parts related to late-season stars. I’ll examine three players here and three in a future piece.
Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR)
Higbee is the poster child for this article. In the first eight weeks, he played in seven games, recording just 18 receptions on 23 targets for 170 yards and a touchdown. This made him utterly irrelevant in fantasy. However, over the final eight games, Higbee totaled 51 receptions on 66 targets for 564 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 11.7 points in half PPR scoring over that stretch, good for sixth-best among all tight ends. Let’s get some more context. Over a full season, Higbee’s second-half pace was 102 receptions, 1128 yards, and four touchdowns. These numbers project him as a dominant TE1.
The main reason for Higbee’s ascendance was injuries to wide receiver Brandin Cooks and fellow tight end Gerald Everett. First, the injury to Cooks forced the Rams to run more 12 personnel, which means that they ran two tight end formations. Typically, the Rams were well known for running almost exclusively 11 personnel, which is a three-receiver, tight end, running back set.
In the first half of the season, Higbee’s snap count hovered around 55% for most of the contests. His typical usage happened in run situations as a second tight end to complement the starter, Everett. After week 8, Cooks suffered his second concussion of the year, forcing him to miss two games. In one of those games, Higbee received a snap count of 75%, where Everett was struggling with injury. Eventually, Everett missed time with his injuries, and Higbee jumped into a full-time role. After Everett’s injury, Higbee received at least 86% of snaps in each of the final five games. This role did not change when Everett returned to full health.
Looking forward to 2020, Higbee is the dominant tight end for the Rams. The Rams extended his contract in midseason through 2023, with $15.5 million in guaranteed money. Everett is a free agent after 2020, and I do not believe he is in the Rams’ long-term plans.
Considering that even with all the Rams’ offensive weapons healthy, Higbee was still a big target for the team, I believe Higbee will be drafted as a TE1 in 2020 redraft formats. Over the final five weeks, Higbee was the TE1 overall by a significant margin. The upside is there. He will undoubtedly be drafted behind at least George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews in redraft formats. I will likely avoid Higbee in the top-five of drafts. But if I can get him as a low-end TE1 in draft season, I expect to have many shares of Higbee in 2020.
DeVante Parker (WR – MIA)
Parker is just as strong of a fit for this article as Higbee. In his first eight games, he averaged 9.8 points per game in half-PPR formats, which is a borderline WR3/Flex player. That assessment excludes some of the guys who played few games during that period. However, during his second eight games, he averaged 16.5 points per game. That was third-best among WRs, behind just Michael Thomas and A.J. Brown.
In the first half of the season, Parker’s line was just 28 receptions on 52 targets for 400 yards and four touchdowns. Over the second half, Parker put up 46 receptions on 76 targets for 802 yards and five touchdowns. Parker finally achieved the high-end WR1 potential that many had been waiting for since he was drafted in the first round in the 2015 NFL Draft. He finished as the WR7 on the season and carried fantasy owners to championships.
The reasons for Parker’s second-half ascendancy are pretty clear-cut and are twofold. First, teammate Preston Williams was injured after eight games with a torn ACL. Williams had 32 receptions on 60 targets for 428 yards and three touchdowns in the eight games he played, very similar to Parker’s line during that period. Essentially, Williams and Parker operated as co-alpha receivers in the Dolphins’ offense, but neither was hyped-targeted. It took an injury to Williams for Parker to finally consolidate his role and break out as he did.
Second, the Dolphins firmly committed to Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting quarterback. In the first six games of 2019, the Dolphins seemed unable to decide on a starter. Still, after that, Fitzpatrick started and finished the final ten games. Fitzpatrick himself could easily be the subject of this article, but he was undeniably better than Josh Rosen. Rosen completed just 53.2% of his passes and threw five interceptions compared to only one touchdown. Fitzpatrick was far better, completing 62.0% of his passes and throwing 20 touchdowns as compared to 13 interceptions.
The big question for Parker is: Can he repeat his second-half performance in 2020, or was the first half more like what we should expect going forward? Fitzpatrick remains under contract for 2020, and if he’s the starter, I think Parker could replicate his numbers. However, if the Dolphins draft a rookie quarterback or bring in a different veteran quarterback, I would hesitate to draft Parker at the WR2 price I expect him to cost in 2020 drafts.
Preston Williams is going to have to work his way back to compete with Parker. But, there is always the possibility the Dolphins either sign or draft an alpha wide receiver to be a future number one. I think that Jerry Jeudy or Ceedee Lamb would immediately supplant Parker as the top receiver in the offense. Free-agent receiver A.J. Green would do the same. Other free agents such as Robby Anderson would certainly at least compete with Parker for targets and would eat into his target volume in 2020. Therefore, unless there is little change in Miami, I doubt I will be paying up for Parker in 2020 redraft formats.
Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
Unlike the two other players, there is little doubt that Mixon is one of the most talented players at his position in the NFL. The difference with Mixon is that his situation in the disappointing Bengals’ offense has caused a lack of fantasy numbers through the first three years of his career. Throughout the first eight games, Mixon averaged just 8.8 points in half PPR scoring. He was significantly outscored by players like Carlos Hyde, Jamaal Williams, and Matt Breida, putting Mixon in the realm of fantasy irrelevance. However, in the second half, Mixon averaged 17.2 points, sixth among running backs, behind just Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones, Christian McCaffrey, and Ezekiel Elliott.
Mixon’s usage was the main difference between his two halves of 2019. In the first half, he only averaged 12.6 carries per game and had a high carry count of just 19 carries in any game. However, in the second half, Mixon averaged 22.1 carries per game and had 15 or more carries in every game. Coincidentally, starting quarterback Andy Dalton was benched after eight games and was replaced with rookie Ryan Finley.
Perhaps to take some of the pressure off Finley, Mixon toted 30 carries in Finley’s first game. Even though Mixon never received 30 carries again, it seemed like head coach Zac Taylor realized that using Mixon heavily was a better strategy than what he was doing previously. Even when Dalton returned to the starting lineup, Mixon’s usage remained the same. However, with Dalton, the offense majorly improved over the final five weeks. Mixon totaled four touchdowns during those last five games and was the RB5 over that period.
Coming into 2020, Mixon will be the centerpiece of a new Bengals’ offense. The Bengals are expected to select LSU quarterback Joe Burrow with the first overall pick. Even though Dalton was somewhat effective in 2019, Burrow provides a ceiling that Dalton has never offered. Also, given that 2019 first-round pick Jonah Williams returns from injury to anchor the offensive line, the Bengals find themselves poised to take significant strides.
If the Mixon we saw over the second half is the real Mixon, and the Bengals excel under Burrow, I believe Mixon has the potential to be the RB1 overall in 2020. Considering that he was the RB6 in the second half of the season on a relatively putrid offense, I don’t think this is a major hot take. He will be a first-round selection for me in 2020 redraft formats, and I expect him to be on many of my rosters.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I’d love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help out with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
