Lamar Jackson is quite possibly the most polarizing quarterback in the NFL after his performance last season. He set the fantasy football world on fire with speed and agility that we have not seen since the days of Michael Vick. However, some see those traits as a mark against his quarterback play. Luckily, as fantasy players, this is something we often desire; many view other quarterbacks that have versatility in their game like Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, and Kyler Murray, and see the dual-threat component as an asset. When it comes to Jackson, despite his eye-popping 66% completion percentage and 36 touchdown passes vs. only 6 interceptions, some people still aren’t convinced.
Lamar Jackson’s MVP season was no surprise to me and many others that have been fans and supporters since day one. Taking the future bets on the Over/Under 16 touchdown passes before the season, I couldn’t believe his projections were so low – the lowest total of all starting quarterbacks. It was an easy wager. The Over/Under 800 yards rushing took a bigger leap of faith but watching Lamar the previous season you could see he was a problem for defenses in the run game. To me, betting this prop in August was easy money. Not only did he surpass my expectations, but he blew those numbers out and left doubters rethinking their positions. The naysayers would throw out pointless counter-arguments throughout the year against the production that Jackson displayed weekly.
Before the season began, the most common criticism was Jackson couldn’t pass; he then proceeded to throw 5 touchdowns against the Dolphins in Week 1. There was a lot of talk about their strength of schedule; the Ravens finished with the 8th hardest in the NFL. Then it was the criticism that all Jackson does is make one read and then take off. And while he did rush to an all-time best 80 yards per game with a record-breaking 1,206 total rushing yards in 2019, he proved his ability to also win games with his arm leading the league in touchdown passes. So what does this mean for fantasy owners in 2020? Can he expand on a season that earned so many accolades?
Some say Lamar Jackson is the first quarterback off the board for fantasy in 2020 redraft leagues and many are coming around to that position. The “late quarterback” draft strategy is what some polished fantasy GMs adhere to. However, Jackson’s weekly upside is something players should not pass up. ADP is questionable this early in the year as many ranking systems project him as a mid-to-late second round pick. Season-long fantasy is a weekly game and if you have Jackson who can put up over 30 fantasy points in any given contest like he did seven times last year, that is an advantage you will have on those who wait on drafting their quarterback. Jackson had a 9% passing touchdown rate which led the league according to Pro Football Reference. If he had a league-average touchdown rate he would have landed around 19-20 touchdowns and still be ranked the #1 quarterback in 2019 in overall fantasy points.
Lamar Jackson was an elite pocket passer in the NFL in 2019, and in Baltimore’s offense has an even better chance to be more potent in the passing attack after Baltimore only threw the ball 45% of the time last season ranking them dead last in the league. His accuracy stats placed him top 3rd in on-target %, and only 17.5% of his throws were bad throws (throws that weren’t catchable with a normal effort not including spikes or throwaways) last year landing him 20th out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks. To put this all in perspective, Drew Brees was 32nd with a 10.7% bad throw rate while Aaron Rodgers was 1st with 21.2%. Let’s also take into account the weapons the Ravens had to target. Mark Andrews led all Baltimore pass catchers last season in receptions and yards with 64 and 852, respectively. Second-year receivers Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin are expected to up their production this season. Brown is explosive and showed that in limited action during 14 games last season while being banged up, and Boykin never really got going registering a disappointing 16 catches as a rookie. Hayden Hurst is gone now to Atlanta, but with the emergence of Andrews stepping into the elite tight end ranks, along with Brown and Boykin potentially leveling up, this group is capable of more.
I still have yet to elaborate on Jackson’s 1,206 yards and 7 touchdowns via the ground. While 1,200 yards rushing again in 2020 would be remarkable, it will be interesting to see what the Over/Under will be on a repeat performance. Another 1,000-yard season is not out of the question, and without going into the strength of schedule as it is way too early to determine, playing the NFC East this year instead of the NFC South has to feel a little better for Jackson supporters going into the 2020 campaign. His running ability will be there again if needed, and the Ravens feel good about the rushing component of Jackson’s game going into the season. Few can tackle him one-on-one in the open field which in turn helps his reads and his receivers in the passing game. Defenses must respect his running threat at all times. 193 of Jackson’s 401 pass attempts came from either run-pass options or play-action passes according to Pro Football Reference. This gives defenses much to worry about when game-planning against Baltimore.
Here’s an interesting general note to consider. Overall, Jackson outscored the next closest fantasy quarterback 416-338 in four-point passing touchdown leagues. Comparatively, Dak Prescott finished QB2 last season after finishing as QB10 the season before. Using that metric, If Lamar Jackson plays a full fantasy season and avoids injury, there is no way he finishes less than QB10 in the near future. If he continues to do what he did last year and outscore the consensus QB2 (based on Fantasy Pros 38 expert rankings) Patrick Mahomes by seven points per game you won’t have many losses in the QB column. And you will gladly reap the draft capital you spent when you took Lamar Jackson in the first round.
Last, but certainly not least, fantasy football should be fun, and nothing is more fun than cheering on “Action” Jackson while he is winning weeks for your squad. You get to tease and joke with all your league buddies, and who doesn’t love a bit of smack talk in the chat? You can follow me on twitter @Cmoney52 and I look forward to bringing you more fantasy football content.
