A First Look: 2023 Running Backs Part 1

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One of my favorite parts of college football is seeing the freshmen enter the landscape every year. From a devy perspective, selecting these guys is often a leap of faith. In the most recent freshman class, Trey Sanders (Alabama) and John Emery Jr. (LSU) were the two highest-rated running back recruits. Because Sanders missed his entire freshman season and Emery failed to supplant Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the lead back, like expected, both are less valuable relative to their class than this time last year. On the flip side, Zach Charbonnet, Eric Gray, and Jerrion Ealy have higher relative values compared to this time last year. Drafting a freshman running back is a mixed bag, but when they hit, it can position a team very nicely for the future (see 2017 recruiting class). The incoming freshman class has a few guys who I’m willing to take a chance on.

RB1- Bijan Robinson, Texas

After the 2018-2019 college football season, I was excited about freshman running back, Keaontay Ingram. That excitement pales in comparison for my excitement for Bijan Robinson, and he hasn’t played a single collegiate snap. Robinson’s exceptional abilities and recruiting status are going to give him an immediate role in this offense. I don’t think he’s just going to get 10-15 touches a game; I think he’s going to start for them. Ingram’s struggles last year leave the door wide open for Robinson.

Robinson’s high school stats are ridiculous. He accumulated three straight seasons over 2,000 yards, including one where he did it on just 126 carries. That’s an average of 17.7 yards per carry. In that same season, he caught 12 receptions for 314 yards and 3 TDS. The five-star running back’s play on the field translated to dominance on the circuit. The Rivals Challenge named Robinson’s the camp’s RB MVP.

 

Not fully developed at 6’0″ and 200 lbs., Robinson is going to have workhorse size when he enters the NFL. From the running backs I’ve watched in this class, no one has vision and patience like Robinson. He excels at letting his linemen set up their blocks, patiently waiting for the right hole to open. When it does, he uses his impressive burst and acceleration to get to the next level. He shows a variety of moves in space, forcing missed tackles in the process. Like most freshman running backs, he needs to work on his abilities protecting the quarterback. Considering his rushing abilities and work in the receiving game, Robinson is, at this moment, the RB1 in the 2023 NFL class.

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYCD479IsM4[/embedyt]

RB2- Zachary Evans, Georgia Undecided

Evans has one of the most interesting recruiting cycles. You can read more about it here, but to summarize it: he quietly committed to Georgia, planned on announcing it at the Under Armor All-American Game, but that was overshadowed due to his missing the Texas state championship game. He has since been “released” by Georgia and is free to commit elsewhere.

Similarly to Robinson, Zachary Evans is going to have prototypical workhorse running back size when enters the league. Already at 5’11″ and 200 lbs., Evans has some room on his frame to pack on some more weight. Evans combines his prototypical size with elite levels of athleticism. At The Opening, an event showcasing the best recruits in the nation, Evans won the event by posting a 135.84 Sparq score.

 

His physical abilities are clear on tape. He has the top-end speed to take any play to the house. His 3.91 seconds shuttle time is remarkable for a player his size and age. That translates well, evident by his close area lateral abilities. His lateral abilities are in display in the open field too. He pieces together a variety of moves to solve a variety of problems that defenders gave him. His burst and short-area quickness flash on tape, a trait that is corroborated by his 37.2 inch vertical. While he isn’t as patient as Robinson, Evans’ patience should be noted. Sometimes he is a little too patient, but I’m not concerned about that being a problem at the next level.

It’s still unclear which team is going to land Evans, but whoever does, is going to get a stud. His size and athleticism combination, combined with his good football skills, give him a high floor and high ceiling. Even with the craziness in recruiting, I would still take a chance on Evans in devy drafts. If he picks Florida, which is rumored, Evans could walk into a starting role day one—although I think he’ll have to earn it. I see Evans dominating in the SEC for three years before declaring for the NFL Draft. At this moment, he is my RB2 in the 2023 NFL Draft. 

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_L2LJaFryM[/embedyt]

RB3- Kendall Milton, Georgia

Zachary Evans de-committing from Georgia is one of the most heartbreaking things to me during this recruiting cycle. The prospect of having two of the top three running backs in the same backfield made me excited. Unfortunately, we won’t get to see that dynamic 1-2 punch in action. Kendall Milton will enter a crowded Georgia backfield, joining James Cook, Zamir White, and Kenny McIntosh. I suspect White and Cook to dominate touches, with Milton and McIntosh splitting the leftovers. When Cook and White inevitably leave for the draft, Milton, the 2019 California Running Back of the Year, will have a fantastic opportunity to become the lead back for Running Back Georgia University.

At 6’2″, 220 lbs., Kendall Milton doesn’t need to grow into prototypical size, he already has it. He uses this size to punish defenders, finishing runs with authority. This power and mentality lead to him breaking a lot of arm tackles and normal tackles for that matter. His contact balance is top tier, he frequently absorbs contact, continuing his path as nothing happened. His processing at the line of scrimmage is another strength of his. He’s advanced at his age at seeing the hole before his line fully opens it.

Milton’s lateral abilities are highly impressive for someone of his size. He utilizes jump cuts to shift his way through messes at the line of scrimmage or to make a defender miss in the open field. These cuts display his spatial awareness, one of the traits I desire the most in my running backs.

Milton, my RB3, is the last running back from this class who I see as having first-round NFL Draft upside right now. First-round capital to a running back goes a long way in ensuring their long-term fantasy relevance. After three years of working in a committee, I project Milton to become a lead back in the NFL. He needs to work on his pass-catching abilities to become a certified three-down back, but I love his potential.

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bHRWQr0yxM[/embedyt]

RB4- Tank Bigsby, Auburn

After 9 straight seasons of having a 1,000-yard rusher, Auburn has failed to do so in back-to-back seasons. With JaTarvious Whitlow, the lead back in those seasons, transferring, the Auburn starting running back job is up for grabs. The likely starter for week one is DJ Williams, the four-star sophomore running back who played well in limited action last season. He’s facing some serious competition from incoming four-star running back Tank Bigsby. The number four ranked running back in the 2020 recruiting cycle enters Auburn with lofty expectations.

Fitting in with the other guys in the list, Bigsby sizes in at 6’0″ and 210 lbs. Bigsby uses his size to punish defenders, I’ve seen him flatten some guys. His contact balance is impressive, tacklers just bounce off his well-built frame. Regardless of size, Bigsby has impressive cutting abilities. His quick feet allow him to change direction in ways that make defenders look foolish. It’s not just physical with Bigsby, he has great mental traits too. He is a patient runner, allowing his blocks to set up. When they are in place, his burst is on display, shooting through the hole in a flash. Additionally, Bigsby looks like one of the stronger receiving backs in the class, although he does need to work on his pass blocking timing and technique.

Bigsby looks like a day 2 pick in the NFL draft and a potential round 1 pick in dynasty rookie drafts come 2023. I would happily take a chance on him in devy leagues.

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uACe6Y2U6g[/embedyt]

RB5- Demarkcus Bowman, Clemson

When Travis Etienne opted to return for his senior season, the only person who may have been more disappointed than dynasty owners was Demarkcus Bowman. The heavily recruited, 5-star running back had great opportunity ahead of him. Battling only Lyn-J Dixon and underwhelming sophomores, I would have liked Bowman’s odds to not only secure a big role in the offense but to also be the feature back. The return of Travis Etienne is going to make Bowman wait another year before the job is his, but that might extend the buying window of Demarkcus Bowman.

Finally, we see a different body type on this list. Unlike the previous players, Bowman lacks prototypical size, measuring in at 5’9’’ and 191 lbs. Possessing 4.47 speed, Bowman is a big play waiting to happen. Bowman is a decisive runner who doesn’t mess around behind the line of scrimmage. Combining his noteworthy acceleration with certified track speed, Bowman erases angles. Bowman isn’t just speed, he’s one of the most impressive in the class when it comes to contact balance due to his ability to control his body and redistribute the energy incurred from the hit. Bowman will need to improve in the passing game, but his talents running the ball are clear.

I currently project Bowman to be the lead back in a committee—an Alvin Kamara type workload. Based on Etienne’s usage, I doubt we ever see Bowman have the type of workload necessary to convince me that he can be a workhorse back. Still, his talents are clear, and he is my 2023 RB5. I would take a chance on Bowman in the 5th round of 12 team single-QB devy startup drafts.

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_Sb3Nd084s[/embedyt]

I am optimistic about this running group. All of these guys have the potential to become major assets to our devy rosters. Drafting freshman is risky, but I have no problem pulling the trigger on any of these guys in startup devy drafts. In part two of this, I’m going to talk about guys who are targets in deeper or depleted devy leagues.

Find me on Twitter at @DFF_Steven to talk about anything fantasy football.

 

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