After the NFL draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While it’s possible some backfields may continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?
Luckily, JJ Zachariason has already put in the research to show us what to look for. Even though his research is primarily for redraft, we can apply it to dynasty as well. Breakout running backs typically aren’t handcuffs. They come from ambiguous backfields and are oftentimes drafted as the 2nd back from their team. Pass catchers have an easier route to breakout, as there is typically a three rush to one reception workload ratio. Most importantly, age doesn’t matter. Players in their 5th year are just as likely as rookies to break out in these situations.
Current Depth Chart
After an uninspiring 2020 season, the Cardinals let Kenyan Drake walk. This left them with only Chase Edmonds and Eno Benjamin. After touting the possibility of moving forward with Edmonds as the starter, they brought in James Conner on a $1,750,000 one-year contract. To put that in perspective, Leonard Fournette, who also signed a one-year deal, will bring in two million more this season. Despite the deal, this is what I expect the Cardinals depth chart to look like:
- James Conner
- Chase Edmonds
- Eno Benjamin
The Cardinals may have other backs on their roster, but no one outside of the top two has much of a chance of being fantasy-relevant.
Lead Back or Committee?
Under Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals have primarily used one running back. Nothing is more evident of this than Drake’s 58% snap share last season despite only averaging more than 3.5 yards per carry a game in seven of 15 games. The Cardinals gave more than 65% of snaps to a running back seven times last season, and Drake only saw fewer than 50% of snaps in three games he was active for, one of which he left early with an injury.
The sole game Drake missed last season saw Edmonds receive 96% of the snaps and 25 carries. Arizona will primarily be giving the ball to two guys this season, one of which will see the bulk of the work. The Cardinals rushed 479 times in 2020: Drake accounted for 239, Edmonds accounted for 97, Kyler Murray accounted for 133, and five different players combined to account for the remaining ten.
The fact that the Cardinals planned on taking Najee Harris if Zaven Collins was gone in the first round shouldn’t be ignored. They want to lean on one guy. If they don’t see that immediately this season, they may even be motivated to trade for somebody they think can handle the load.
Who Do I Roster?
Even if you’re going to bet against James Conner being able to stay healthy the entire season, rostering Benjamin isn’t advisable. He spent the whole 2020 season as a healthy scratch. If he becomes a meaningful piece of the offense, it will be shocking.
With the limited sample size of it being Chase Edmond’s backfield, it’s hard to say what he’d look like as the workhorse. In the one game he dominated the snaps, his 28 touches were only good for 11.8 fantasy points. While scientifically it isn’t accurate, in the NFL there simply can’t be lightning without any thunder. He needs a counterpart for him to spell as change-of-pace back. When Edmonds scores a touchdown, he posts a top-24 performance, but when he doesn’t things are tough sledding. Edmonds went over 12 points six times last season, only one of which was a game he didn’t score a touchdown.
James Conner is the guy to roster in this backfield. Conner had top-24 performances in eight of 12 games he was active for in 2020. While he has been knocked in the past for leaving games early and tanking your week, that is baked into his value now. Even last year, he only posted three games (in which he played) where he didn’t finish as at least an RB3. If I’m a contending team with a real chance at a title, I want James Conner to lean on as a flex player, and I’d be willing to give up a 2nd round rookie pick, which would likely be enough to secure him.
Thanks for reading! If you have any fantasy questions, reach out to me on Twitter @fantasyonefive, and be sure to check out the rest of my work on DFF!
