1.06, Justin Herbert, Oregon, QB
Height – 6’6” Weight – 236 lbs. Hand Size – 10”
Arm – 32” Wingspan – 78” Age – 22
With the sixth selection in the 2020 draft, Herbert is picked by Los Angeles where he will be able to back up Tyrod Taylor until his team can trust his ability enough to take the start. Herbert’s Talent is above others in the class, but the question here is whether or not he will be able to adapt to the NFL and the elite defenses. He isn’t your usual leader in the locker room, but we have seen success in many forms before. Certainly, the Chargers do not have an issue with him taking a reserved leadership approach by taking him as the third QB overall.
Justin Herbert was a true freshman when he started his collegiate career with the Oregon Ducks. Through multiple coaches and offensive schemes in Herbert’s four years with the Ducks, he built his game around mobility and solid decision making. Apart from a leg injury in high school setting back his recruitment process, Herbert has been healthy and can be groomed into the franchise quarterback that teams search for.
Herbert offers a strong arm and a large frame for pocket passing paired with the ability to take off when needed. He was a four-year starter in college and after a good showing at the senior bowl, the early selection was almost guaranteed. Herbert will certainly rise to fantasy relevance, but its a matter of when rather than if it’ll happen. He showed his upside and produced the following stats over his career in the NCAA
Notice his touchdown to interception ratio stays consistent despite playing in multiple offensive schemes. He is a great decision-maker when given time, and delivers passes quickly to his targets. A downside in some eyes about his style is that he isn’t as vocal of a leader as some would like, but actions speak louder than words. He was loyal to the Ducks, returning for his senior year despite being touted as a first-round prospect after his junior season. By doing so Herbert perfected his craft improving his completion rating, TD/INT ratio, and his Yd/A showing he can be deadly if given weapons and time.
Herbert could perform as a day one starter, but if he is given time to adjust to the NFL, I believe it will only benefit him and the team drafting him. He has all the tools to be successful and should be fantasy relevant seeing that he has a rushing upside. His college only allowed him to target one WR on any given play, and if given some time to learn how the NFL operates his arm talent should translate to success.
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Landing with the Chargers allows Herbert to sit and learn behind a journeyman veteran in Tyrod Taylor who has shown functional mobility and above-average arm strength throughout his career. Sitting half the season or his entire rookie year would be ideal for development, and the Chargers have plenty of weapons available when he is ready to begin his career as a starter. He will be able to grow with the other selections Las Angeles has in this draft. With Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, and Keenan Allen, Herbert would be surrounded by talent whereas Oregon didn’t feature nearly this level of athleticism across the field.
Anthony Lynn has shown he needs a step up at the QB position to win with the talent on this offense. Philip Rivers was on the downturn of his career and started to throw interceptions more often than not. The key to this switch at QB will be Herbert’s ability to develop quickly and diagnose defenses. The Chargers will expect a smooth transition while performing the rebuild in a new city that will hopefully propel them back to NFL relevancy. I expect Herbert to be the leader who speaks with actions rather than words and will perform well enough for fantasy to be selected in the top half of the first round in your rookie superflex drafts. He won’t get the opportunity right away but hopefully will improve his mechanics before taking the field with a powerful offense around him.
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