The Las Vegas Raiders selected Henry Ruggs III, Wide Receiver, out of the University of Alabama. He was the 12th pick in the first round and was the first wide receiver drafted in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Biography
Henry Ruggs is 5’11” and 188 pounds. He played three years at Alabama and will be 21 years old at the beginning of the 2020 NFL Season. Ruggs, Alabama’s third all-time receiving touchdown leader, competed with other top receiving talents Jerry Jeudy, Calvin Ridley, Irv Smith Jr., Devonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle while in Tuscaloosa.
College Production
Henry Ruggs technically never met the 20 percent market share threshold for breakout age (age during their first season with a 20% receiving dominator rating) in his three seasons for the Crimson Time. Ruggs’ best season was his sophomore season at 19 years old. He had 46 receptions, for 741 receiving yards, and 11 scrimmage touchdowns for a receiving dominator rating (average percentage of their team’s receiving yards and receiving touchdowns) of 18.2% (15th percentile). While Ruggs had respectable raw numbers at Alabama, he struggled from a market share perspective. He averaged 597 scrimmage yards (45th percentile) and 8.3 scrimmage touchdowns (86th percentile) per season for an average scrimmage dominator rating (average percentage of their team’s scrimmage yards and scrimmage touchdowns) per season of 9.73% (38th percentile). Ruggs was extremely efficient with the ball in his hands and he averaged 17.9 yards per reception (90th percentile) with Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts targeting him. But within his offense, he had slightly below-average efficacy and averaged 0.65 scrimmage yards per team play (43rd percentile). Ruggs’ speed made him the lead returner for the Crimson Tide as well. He had 33 returns, for 571 return yards, and zero return touchdowns. Ruggs’ overall market share numbers aren’t on the same level as most first-round prospects. However, Nick Saban having him return kicks illustrates how he valued Ruggs’ special ability with the ball in his hands. Overall, Ruggs is criticized by the analytics community for his lack of production. It’s important to note that just because he has slightly below-average production, doesn’t mean he didn’t produce in college. Ruggs stepped onto the scene at Alabama and produced at 18 years old. He just performed below what is expected from such a highly-touted wide receiver.
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Athleticism
[profiler]HenryRuggs[/profiler]
Despite only being 188 pounds, Henry Ruggs has an elite height-adjusted speed score of 110.0 (91st percentile) after running a 4.27-second 40-time at the NFL Combine. He has an elite burst score of 136.9 (99th percentile). Ruggs is one of the fastest receivers to enter the NFL. He will look to run by defenders and should create a lot of yards after the catch in the NFL.
NFL Landing Spot
Las Vegas Raiders: This is without a doubt one of the best opportunities. This team has no WR1 on its roster. The Raiders’ 24th ranked offense passed at one of the lowest frequencies at 55.8% and were in the bottom 10 for plays run. Their quarterback situation is interesting. Carr remains an above average quarterback, but Gruden keeps teasing moving on from him, either in the draft or by moving to Mariota. Whoever the QB is, the volume is there for a new receiver. TE Darren Waller led all pass catchers in targets, receptions and yardage. Slot man Hunter Renfrow came on strong at the end of the year and impressed, but he isn’t the big-bodied-alpha that teams need in a WR1. Neither is Tyrell Williams, who has been a career WR2 and has a lengthy injury history. The only other WR to garner at least a 5% target share was Bills’ bust Zay Jones. The team did bring in Nelson Agholor on a one year deal, but he is notoriously unreliable and a subject of mockery amongst the Philly faithful. None of these options are the receiver that the Raiders need at the top of the depth chart. They are a favorite to draft a receiver high, and whoever they take should be on everyone’s radars.
Rivals’ Rapid Analysis
Henry Ruggs has a tantalizing amount of speed and quickness for a wide receiver. He was a big-play threat in college and his speed and quickness should help him create big plays and create yards after the catch in the NFL. His dynamism on special teams also adds a checkmark to his production profile. Ruggs’ production profile as a whole is slightly below average. His ability to consistently score touchdowns and his high yards per reception numbers really help bring his profile to a “slightly below-average level.” His market share numbers and lack of a breakout age hurt the case to make Ruggs the best wide receiver in this class. However, we truly never have seen a player like Henry Ruggs since 2000. Most prospects that don’t breakout have several seasons where they are non-factors. Ruggs, at 18 years old, immediately contributed among a highly competitive wide receiver group and consistently produced on offense. There is only a small sample size of eight or so wide receivers that fit these criteria. Within this cohort, Ruggs compares the closest to Marquise Goodwin and Travis Benjamin. However, the comps aren’t that close because Ruggs is a much better athlete than Benjamin and he’s a slightly better producer too. Meanwhile, Goodwin is comparable athletically, but Ruggs is a significantly better producer than Goodwin. Additionally, neither of these players has Henry Ruggs’ draft capital or level of competition for targets. He’s a type of prospect that we truly have never seen before from an athleticism/college production perspective. This makes Ruggs an unknown type of prospect with tremendous upside but with some risk as well.
The Raiders invested first round draft capital into Ruggs. He has a high degree of opportunity and will compete with Williams, Renfrow, and Waller for targets from Derek Carr.
Henry Ruggs is in Shawn’s first wide receiver tier, Shawn’s WR5, and Shawn’s 12th Overall Rookie Rank. Shawn would target Ruggs in late first round in superflex rookie drafts (Mid first round in single QB). Opportunity is ripe here, Vegas has a flashy new receiver for their flashy new city. Ruggs might not be the best receiver in this class, but he certainly landed in one of the juiciest landing spots.
Henry Ruggs is in Dave’s second wide receiver tier, the rookie WR7, and his rookie #14 overall. Dave would target Ruggs in the early second round of superflex rookie drafts (late first in single QB). Ruggs is the first wide receiver off the board in an offense with not much in terms of competition. The Raiders showed a lot of commitment to Ruggs and should feed him targets in Las Vegas as they try to recreate the Al Davis Raiders. He still has a lot of red flags without a breakout age, low age-adjusted market share numbers, and landing in a shaky offense. However, I like making this high risk, high reward selection at this spot in rookie drafts.
This article was written in collaboration with Dave Wright. For more analysis check out Dave and Shawn’s previous articles at Dynasty Football Factory. Additionally, you can also find Dave’s dynasty superflex rankings at Dynasty Football Factory. Stay tuned for more rookie wide receiver rapid reaction articles from us throughout the entire NFL Draft. We will also give you instant reactions for priority UDFA wide receivers to help you try and find the next Adam Thielen. Interact with Dave and Shawn on Twitter @ff_spaceman and @ff_walrus. You can listen to our rivalry on our podcast @ATaleofTwoRivals with @ff_banterman.
Information found in this article was gathered from @ff_spaceman’s College Prospect Database, PlayerProfiler.com, Sports-Reference.com, AirYards.com, and a prospect’s college team website.
