PAST PRODUCTION / BACKGROUND

Josh Downs was a four-star prospect out of Suwanee, Georgia who put together 187 receptions for 3,019 yards and 32 TDs over his final three high school football seasons. He starred both on the football field and the track, as he finished third in the state in triple jump and fourth in the state in long jump before giving up track to focus on football. Downs comes from a pedigree as well. His father was an RB in the NFL after playing at North Carolina State. Furthermore, his younger brother Caleb is ranked as the number one Safety in the nation and just committed to Alabama for the 2023 season. 

In his first season on campus at UNC, Downs played sparingly as a reserve and special-teamer. He appeared in four games that season (2020 Covid-19 Season) and caught seven passes for 119 yards and three scores during his true-freshman season, playing behind now-NFL receivers Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome. Nevertheless, it is important to note that Downs brought in four receptions for 91 yards and two of those TDs in the Orange Bowl. This was the last game of his true-freshman season against a very talented Texas A&M defense. 

In 2021 it was Downs’ time to shine. He immediately became then QB Sam Howell’s favorite target tearing up the ACC in the process. That season he started 13 games for the Tar Heels and tallied 101 receptions for 1335 yards and eight TDs. His 1335 receiving yards trailed only Jordan Addison in the ACC and were tenth-best in the nation. These numbers were also a school record at UNC. Downs earned first-team All-ACC honors, was named to the PFF first-team All-ACC list, and was a semifinalist for the Biletnikoff Award. He also won ACC Receiver of the Week three times and had eight or more catches in 11 of the 13 games he played. At one point, Downs compiled a streak of scoring a TD in eight-straight games, just one short of the school record that has stood for over 70 years. 

Just this weekend, Downs and the Tar Heels played a Week 0 game against Florida A&M. Downs brought in nine receptions for 78 yards and two TDs before retiring to the bench early in the fourth quarter of a 56-24 victory. There is a little cause for concern, as Downs got up a little gimpy after his final catch of the night. We all collectively hope there is no lingering issue. Eventually, he did say it was only a bruise in his post-game interview. In terms of collegiate production this season, Downs’ current outlook looks favorable. 

2022 OUTLOOK

One of the only concerns for Josh Downs in regards to the 2022 season was what kind of production would UNC get from the QB position. This weekend, Drake Maye showed that he will be more than capable (especially against inferior competition) of steering the Tar Heel offense and giving Downs his opportunities to shine. Downs actually had two other TDs called back on Tar Heels’ penalties before scoring his first. Although the Tar Heels currently sit at +20,000 to win The National Championship according to NCAAF betting odds, don’t let that detract from what could be one of College Football’s brightest stars and risers in next year’s NFL Draft.

Assuming health, Downs should be the favorite to lead the ACC in both receptions and yards this season. Your author is hoping to see him used in other alignments more this season, as he was this past weekend. Prior to this game, Downs has run primarily out of the slot throughout his collegiate career. Still, it will be exciting to see the chemistry grow between him and Drake Maye this year. Expect to see no less than 1,000 yards and ten TDs from Downs in 2022. 

DYNASTY ANALYSIS / DRAFT CAPITAL

While Downs has been typecast as a slot receiver, your author feels there is plenty “more on the bone” with Downs as a dynasty asset. Admittedly, his 5’10½” 175 lbs. frame leaves much to be desired when projecting an NFL career. However, Downs’ proficiency as a route runner and elite accelerations and transition speed have him well-equipped to produce from any position on the field. He offers the same size, speed, and similar movement ability as Steelers’ WR1 Diontae Johnson. Additionally, Downs ranked third in the nation with 754 yards after the catch. 

In addition to these attributes, Downs separates himself from Diontae Johnson with his ability to consistently make the routine catch. There are a lot of NFL receivers who boast game-breaking speed or acceleration, but many of those players do not possess reliable hands. Your author’s favorite attribute about Josh Downs is those reliable hands. His strong, consistent hands allow him to avoid the “body catch.” This characteristic is rare for a player with his ability to separate from defenders. Consequently, Downs possesses the traits that it takes to become an alpha receiver in the NFL.

Up to this point, Downs’ price tag in dynasty devy leagues has been very attractive. Typically, he is available later than several receivers that your author prefers him over, including Quenton Johnston, Jermaine Burton, and Marvin Mims. Occasionally, he is still on the board after Rakim Jarrett is selected. If your roster needs a new young WR next season and you don’t want to pay the high price tag for Kayshonn Boutte, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, or Jordan Addison, test the waters with your league’s Josh Downs owner.  

Downs should be viewed as an early-second-round NFL Draft pick in 2023. There is no reason why he would not be an early-declare after his junior season this year. He has the potential to climb into the back half of the first round next April. Consequently, one should expect to see him taken in the late-first to early-second round in dynasty rookie drafts as well. He should be taken in the WR3-WR5 range of next year’s class. 

While the landing spot in the NFL for a WR can be important, it bodes well for Downs that he projects to be taken in the latter half of the first, or early in the second round. Teams selecting late in the draft often have stability at the QB position, and those same teams that view themselves as “one piece away” will often trade up in the second round, as opposed to paying the immense price tag required to move up in Round One. 

Downs will offer immediate production for whoever selects him next season. First, he was a stand-out special teams performer last season as a sophomore, as he finished third in the ACC (13th nationally) averaging 9.8 yards per punt return. Additionally, Downs’ strong acumen for yards-after-catch and his ability to create will allow for an NFL OC’s job to become easier. Consequently, a creative offense will find ways to put the ball in his hands and allow him to create after the catch as well. Downs offers several abilities that NFL teams covet and as such, he should hear his name called early next spring. 

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