The fantasy community was hit with its first NFL trade in a while as we approach the start of the NFL season. The Panthers have acquired Laviska Shenault from the Jaguars in exchange for “undisclosed draft capital”. This trade not only has fantasy implications for Laviska himself but also for the players on the Panthers and the Jaguars. So without further delay let us break down the impact of this move.
Laviska Shenault
The effect of this move is primarily determined by how good of a football player you think Shenault is. He has played 30 games so far and in those games, he has amassed 121 receptions, 1,219 yards, and five touchdowns through the air. Along with 29 carries for 132 yards on the ground. With these numbers Shenault has averaged 9.54 PPR ppg, a mark of 10.0 ppg is what I use to determine a player is “flex worthy” and Laviska seems to fall just short of that. I would classify Laviska as an average, replacement-level player in the NFL, and potentially usable in fantasy football.
The Jaguars
The Jaguars’ pass catchers gain value from this move, especially since it came in conjunction with the release of Laquon Treadwell. The Jags’ passing attack is now concentrated on the wide receiver trio of Marvin Jones, Christian Kirk, and Zay Jones. Previously this work was set to be split among five capable pass catchers but now Laviska’s projected 12% and Treadwell’s projected 8% target shares can be spread out to their former teammates. I would give Christian Kirk the largest bump in the room. The Jaguars brought in Kirk and paid a lot of money for him, I would assume this is because their new coach, Doug Pederson, likes him and wants to get him the ball a lot.
Laviska would have soaked up some of Kirk’s potential targets but now he is free to lead this WR room by a large margin. The next player I think takes a big jump is Zay Jones. Jones was fighting Laviska for that WR3 spot, now that Jones has a firm hold on the role he could see upwards of a 16% target share. He is a guy I would look at late in your redraft rounds. I think Marvin Jones and the tight ends stay about the same, maybe one or two percentage points higher in target share. But, I do think Shenault was having a smaller effect on them and a larger effect on Zay and Kirk. Lastly, I do think this helps Travis Etienne as we had seen Shenault get a lot of targets out of the backfield but we want Etienne to have that job locked down, and now he does.
The Panthers
I think the Panthers are largely unaffected by this. Baker Mayfield gets a new weapon but Shenault is not enough to make me target Baker or even move him up in my ranks. D.J. Moore is still an elite target earner and I do not see him being affected by Laviska Shenault enough to lose more than one or two percent of the target share. The big losers in this trade are Robbie Anderson and Terrace Marshall. To be making this trade this close to the season, the Panthers are not happy with their WR depth after D.J. Moore. Robbie was looking to be a WR2 in an improved offense now led by Baker Mayfield but now might be relegated to the WR3 spot. Even if the change is not that drastic, Shenault will be taking targets from Anderson.
After Marshall’s disappointing season last year, I think this tells us all we need to know. He has been relegated to the team’s WR4 and is undraftable in redraft and a sell for anything you can in dynasty. I do think Shenault gets bumped up from this trade as well. He goes to a team with much worse competition for targets and has the chance to be the team’s meaningful second wide receiver. I could see Shenault clearing 10 PPR ppg this season and being a usable flex player. Have him on your board for the end of your drafts.
Conclusion
For the Jags’ wide receivers, of course, losing competition at the position is good but determining the true risers is important. For me, that will be Kirk and Zay Jones. With the skillset on this team the RB, Travis Etienne gains as well as he thrives off of catching passes from the backfield. Marvin Jones, the tight ends, and Trevor Lawrence are largely unchanged. For the Panthers, I do not think the elite pieces are affected much, Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore. However, the ancillary pieces, Terrace Marshall and Robie Anderson are certainly in trouble of losing a good amount of work. Baker Mayfield also does not move for me since he just gained another replacement-level talent, not a difference maker.
Laviska Shenault is the big winner of this trade, I had him projected for 48 receptions, 457 yards, and three touchdowns for the Jaguars. Now, with the Panthers, I have him projected for 53 receptions, 584 yards, and five touchdowns. This brings his projected points per game up to 8.3 from 6.7. I think if he can prove he is better than Anderson, who has been going downhill lately, those numbers would be even higher.
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