Bowers: The Undisputed TE1?
There’s no denying Brock Bowers is a generational college talent. He’s arguably the best tight end in college football history, and before the injury this season, he was pacing to break the career receiving yards record for Division 1 tight ends…in just three seasons.
Bowers unfortunately suffered an injury in their victory over Vanderbilt on 10/14, requiring surgery to repair a broken ankle. This type of injury typically takes four to six weeks to recover from, so Bower will likely miss at least another week or two.
Prior to the injury, Bowers had put up 41 receptions, 567 receiving yards, and four touchdowns through seven contests this season. Extrapolated over a 13-game season, Bowers was on pace for 76 receptions, 1,053 yards, and seven touchdowns. Bowers has been the central piece to this Bulldog offense since his freshman season. Through 2.5 seasons, he’s totaled 160 receptions, 2,391 yards, and 24 touchdowns. These numbers would catch the fantasy community’s eyes if they came from a wide receiver. Coming from a tight end, well, that’s just absurd.
https://twitter.com/DavisMattek/status/1708251929875247250So, how does Ja’Tavion stand up against Bowers as a prospect and a fantasy producer? Is he worth consideration over Bowers in the right situation, or is Bowers in a league of his own? Let’s look at Sanders’ resume to see how he projects at the NFL level.
High School
Ja’Tavion was an absolute monster in high school, earning himself offers from virtually every elite Power 5 program in the nation. Sanders posted over 1,100 receiving yards as a senior, finding the endzone 16 times. In addition, Sanders was a solid defensive end, collecting 17.5 sacks and 80 tackles in his final three years at Billy Ryan High School in Denton, Texas.
Coming out of high school, Sanders was a 5-star prospect, ranked 13th overall in his class, according to ESPN. High school awards unsurprisingly came aplenty for Ja’Tavion, which included:
- Texas 5A co-player of the year
- 2019 All-State Defensive Player of the Year
- 2020 MaxPreps All-State first team
- 2021 Under Armour All-America Game
- 2020 Mr. Texas Football Finalist
- 5A State Champion
It was clear Sanders had the skill, athleticism, and pedigree to make an immediate impact on any program in the country. Ultimately, Sanders elected to play for the Texas Longhorns under HC Steve Sarkisian.
Texas 2021-23
As a freshman, Sanders didn’t record any receiving stats, but he wasn’t redshirted, as he appeared in all 12 Longhorn games. He was primarily used on special teams and with the field goal unit in 2021. Sanders broke out as a sophomore, breaking the school record for most receptions by a TE in Longhorn history last season, catching 54 balls for 613 yards and five touchdowns.
Nine games into his junior season now, and Sanders has failed to continue the success he saw in 2022. He’s only accumulated 22 receptions through nine games, finding paydirt just once. While this has been a pretty disappointing season from a statistical standpoint, it doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t see more opportunity at the next level.
Draft Projections
According to NFL Mock Draft Database, Ja’Tavion is currently projected as a 2nd round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, with a 40% chance of going in Round 1. And NFL Draft Buzz has Sanders projected as a late-first-round pick. Assuming Sanders finds his name being called on Day 1 of the draft, or even in the early second round, that kind of team investment would imply that Sanders should expect to see the field early and often as a rookie. There were three tight ends taken in the first 35 picks of the 2023 NFL Draft (Kincaid, Mayer, LaPorta), and all three have already found themselves in significant roles on their respective teams. Mayer is already considered a top-ten Dynasty TE, Kincaid a top-five TE, and LaPorta is being discussed as the TE1 overall.
Now, it’s fair to say we’ve been spoiled with this 2023 TE class. Historically speaking, it’s rare for tight ends to produce as rookies; certainly not enough for us to trust placing them in our fantasy starting lineups. Since 2000, the only TEs to exceed 700 receiving yards in their rookie season are Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, and Jeremy Shockey. (Sam LaPorta will join this list soon, barring any unforeseen injury.) So we have to remind ourselves to have some patience here. History suggests Sanders won’t be a viable fantasy option in Year 1, as almost no rookie tight end is. It’s better to focus on usage and playing time as a barometer of success early on. If he’s the TE1 on his team, seeing most snaps and running all the routes, he should be fine.
Strengths/Weaknesses
Sanders is a natural athlete and can make circus catches that very few tight ends in the country can make. He’s a polished route-runner, has soft hands, and is great in contested catch situations. Sanders is extremely coordinated and can bust out some big plays if he gets into open space. You’d be hard-pressed to find a tight end better at creating yards after the catch.
According to NFL Draft Buzz, Sanders’ projected 40-yard dash is 4.56 seconds, putting him in the 93rd percentile for the position. He’s listed as 6’4″and 243 lbs on the Longhorns’ website, making him slightly undersized compared to your average NFL tight end. He also needs to improve on his run and pass blocking to reach his potential at the next level.
Oddly enough, I see many similarities between Dalton Kincaid and Ja’Tavion Sanders. Obviously, Sanders was a 5-star recruit coming out of high school, while Kincaid had a much different path. Dalton flew under the radar, playing two seasons at San Diego before finally transferring to Utah and breaking out late into his collegiate career. We’ve known Ja’Tavion is special before even stepping foot on campus in Austin, Texas. But when you dig a bit further, these two are more similar than one would think. Both players are athletes above all else and were star basketball players in high school. Kincaid and Sanders have identical measurables, are excellent pass-catchers and route-runners, and neither are known for their blocking abilities. The blocking concerns may not be the worst thing in the world, at least from a fantasy perspective. In the right situation, Sanders could find himself lined up in the slot frequently at the NFL level, potentially giving him more opportunities than your prototypical tight end. In a way, I view Sanders as a slightly more gifted, more revered, and much younger Dalton Kincaid.
Dynasty/Devy Value
I’m taking Brock Bowers confidently over Ja’Tavion Sanders in Devy startups, but Sanders should probably be in a tier of his own as the Devy TE2. I’d be comfortable grabbing Sanders as early as the third round in Devy startups. The lack of production this season is a slight cause for concern; of course, we would have loved to see Sanders pick up right where he left off in 2022. But we’ve already seen him break out at an early age and literally break Texas Longhorn records before the age of 20, so I feel safe betting on the talent here.
In existing Devy leagues, I’d look to trade away an established TE whose stock will be falling soon, like Dallas Goedert or Evan Engram, for Ja’Tavion Sanders + an additional asset, especially if you aren’t contending this season. Assuming your trade partner is, they should be willing to throw in another promising Devy player or pick to get that win-now production on their roster.
Regarding 2024 rookie drafts in Dynasty leagues, I expect Sanders to go around the early second round, in the same tier as the top RBs in this class. In comparison, Brock Bowers will likely go in the early-to-mid first round of rookie drafts. He’s a potential top-ten NFL draft pick, which puts him a clear tier ahead of Sanders in my mind, at least for now.
Assuming your Dynasty league has TEP scoring, if Sanders gets Round 1 draft capital and a fortuitous landing spot, it would be hard to pass up on this talent in the late-first round of rookie drafts. If Ja’Tavion finds himself drafted by someone like the Chargers in Round 1, he could immediately be a top-10 Dynasty TE before taking a snap. Gerald Everett is not on contract after this season, and both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams could be released as well. A situation like this would be ideal; Sanders would be a top target earner on an elite offense tied to a young franchise quarterback.
I’ll be interested to see if Sanders’ production improves in these final few games of the season, but if it doesn’t, I don’t believe it will be overly detrimental to his NFL draft stock. If you have a need at tight end and can’t grab Bowers, Sanders is a cheaper option worth consideration, with a similar fantasy ceiling in the NFL.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
