Let’s turn the clocks back a year.
Mitch Trubisky, after struggling in his rookie year, has just led the Chicago Bears to a surprise 12-4 season. Thanks in large part to a dominant defense, the Bears won their division and had the third-best record in the NFC. Trubisky threw 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions and was named to the Pro Bowl. Despite a brutal wildcard loss to Philadelphia (the infamous double doink game), things were looking good for Mitch in Chicago. After finishing as QB15 while only playing 14 games, he was a fantasy asset on the rise. Trubisky’s 421 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns made him a great late-round QB target.
These days… no one wants a piece of Mitch Trubisky. The Bears brought in Nick Foles to compete for the job and declined to pick up the fifth-year option on Trubisky’s contract. Fantasy owners are completely disregarding him in drafts. The Bears struggled to live up to expectations last season, finishing 8-8. Much of the blame there has been pointed at Trubisky, who only threw 17 TDs despite an increase in both attempts and completions from his previous campaign. Fantasy owners were certainly disappointed as well, as Trubisky finished as QB26.
One guy who exceeded expectations last season was Josh Allen. Allen, propelled by 510 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs, finished the year as QB6. He paid off big time for owners who had taken a late-round flier on the second-year quarterback. The Bills were certainly happy as well. Just like the Bears the year before, Buffalo rode a dominant defense to a playoff berth. They won ten games and made the playoffs, losing in overtime to the Houston Texans.
The last time Buffalo had double-digit wins in a season was 1999. The last time they won their division was 1995. This is a team with a rabid fan base and a defense built to win now. They traded for Stefon Diggs and drafted Zach Moss this offseason. With Tom Brady out of New England, the division is up for grabs and the Bills look poised to make a run at an AFC East title. But is Josh Allen the guy who is going to lead them to the promised land? And should you trust him to lead your fantasy team to glory?
So far in his NFL career, Josh Allen has been defined by two things: his ability to run the ball and his inability to hit his receivers. Let’s start with the inaccuracy. Josh Allen completed 169 of his 320 passes in his rookie season. Of all quarterbacks who threw at least 300 passes that year, Allen’s completion percentage of 52.8 was dead last. He improved that mark last season, but only to 58.8%. That was still last among the 27 QBs who passed it 300 or more times. If Josh Allen wants to be a legit star in the NFL, he needs to approach a 65% completion rate. That’s a big ask for a guy who has yet to break 60% in his career. Even with these issues, Josh Allen is being viewed as a mid-tier QB1. This brings us to his rushing ability.
Despite only playing twelve games in his rookie year, Allen led all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns with eight. He followed that up with nine rushing touchdowns last season, again leading all quarterbacks. He has 1,141 rushing yards in two seasons. Those are elite numbers, and they’ve basically given Allen the fantasy value he has now. But the Bills gave Frank Gore 18 rushing attempts inside the ten-yard line, including 11 inside the five. Gore only gained four yards on those 18 attempts and only scored twice, both from the one-yard line. In case you’re wondering… those are bad numbers. For reference, Derrick Henry was given ten rushing attempts inside the five and scored seven TDs. The 14 RBs who were given ten or more carries within the five-yard line averaged six TDs.
How does this impact Josh Allen? Of Allen’s nine rushing TDs, eight came from within the ten-yard line, five came from within the five, and four came from the one. That’s a lot of work for even an average goal-line back to steal. The Bills have talked about reigning in Allen’s running.
Zack Moss, who excels at gaining the tough yards, could seriously dent the rushing floor that Allen will be depending on to be a QB1.
Yes, Josh Allen is an excellent runner. But as a sub-par passer who doesn’t throw it that much (20 QBs had more attempts in 2019), he needs those rushing totals to be valuable in fantasy. Allen’s rushing isn’t a floor… it’s a necessity. Without an improvement in the accuracy department AND a repeat of his production on the ground, there’s no way Josh Allen improves on his QB6 finish from last season. According to MyFantasyLeague.com’s ADP data, Allen is being drafted as the seventh quarterback in redraft. At that price, you’re taking Allen at his ceiling.
Let’s turn the clocks forward a year.
Is it possible that the Bills are coming off another playoff appearance (maybe even a win?) and Josh Allen has made real strides as an NFL passer? Sure. But it’s just as possible that Allen stagnates and costs the team wins. It’s possible that the Bills see their championship window slowly starting to close and decide that Josh Allen is holding them back. Do they decline his fifth-year option and bring in a veteran QB who can manage the game and let the defense win games? It’s possible. In other words, it’s possible that Josh Allen is the next Mitch Trubisky.
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