We all know what a crapshoot the tight end position can be in fantasy football. The top five to six players at the position have a very projectable workload and, barring injury, we can expect the likes of Kelce, Kittle, and Andrews to be dominant. Then there is a larger group of players who have varying degrees of upside and could smash their current ADP. Ian Thomas falls into this second category.
Let’s take a closer look at what Thomas offers in 2020.
PAST PRODUCTION
If we are being honest, there isn’t much to speak of here. He hasn’t even accumulated 500 receiving yards over his first two seasons.
In fairness to Ian, he was stuck behind Greg Olsen on the depth chart, and in the few opportunities afforded to him, Thomas has performed. Over the past two seasons, when Greg Olsen did not play, Thomas jumped from under 1.3 fantasy points per game (“FPG”) to 9.76. 9.7 FPG per game would have seen Thomas finish as the TE12 on a points per game basis in 2019.
Thomas has all of the athletic gifts to maximize his newfound opportunity. Per PlayerProfiler, Thomas clears the 70th percentile in speed and agility Score, while breaking into the 80th percentile in burst score and catch radius. Put simply, Ian Thomas is a physical specimen and, if he puts it together, could present a real challenge for defensive coordinators.
2020 OUTLOOK
If Ian Thomas is going to establish himself as a bonafide fantasy option, it needs to happen this year. The good news for those who have been waiting for the breakout is that he should have all the opportunity to do so in 2020.
Firstly, Greg Olsen is no longer blocking his path to targets and, according to Matt Rhule, it’s his turn:
Secondly, new offensive coordinator Joe Brady is expected to bring the same pass-heavy approach he installed as LSU’s passing game coordinator. Finally, even if Brady wants to run a balanced offense, he likely will not get the luxury of choice in 2020. The Panthers might have the worst defense in football and return only a handful of starters from 2019. The Panthers had the fourth-highest pass to run ratio in football in 2019, and I expect them to be one of the most pass-heavy teams once again. Opposing teams should score plenty of points against them, meaning Teddy Bridgewater will have to drop back with regularity to try and keep them in the game.
The good news is that it sounds like Bridgewater and Thomas are starting to get on the same page after a quiet start to the Panthers’ camp.
DYNASTY ANALYSIS
It doesn’t cost a lot to draft or trade for Thomas right now. He is valued around the TE20, which makes him a perfect backup if you already roster one of the stud tight ends or a nice second or third option as part of a matchup-determined platoon. Finishing inside the top 12 at the position needs approximately 10 points per game over the season. If Thomas can do that at age 24, his dynasty value will certainly increase.
You may want to get a move on though because the 2020 breakout could happen as early as Week 1. Carolina opens up its season against the Las Vegas Raiders, who were one of the worst teams in the league in fantasy points scored by opposing tight ends in 2019. The addition of Cory Littleton at middle linebacker may help plug the leaks somewhat, but this team ranked 31st in DVOA for a reason and that won’t improve overnight. Thomas (and the whole Panthers offense) gets a plus matchup right out of the gate.
Thanks for reading my profile on Ian Thomas. If you want to discuss him in a trade you are considering, you can reach out to me on Twitter @FF_DownUnder!
