How QBs Perform Their First Game Back After an Extended Leave

Need I say anything about the Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE) situation that hasn’t already been said? A perennial top-five quarterback has been sidelined due to conduct issues/contract issues and an 11-game suspension totaling 28 games missed due to non-injury-related reasons. Dynasty managers, including myself, have acquired Watson for pennies on the dollar over the last two years, and savvy redraft managers have added him from the waiver wire or drafted him in the last round of their drafts. 

Many managers were very disappointed after starting Watson in the last two weeks, expecting the dynamic scrambling quarterback to return close to full form but instead receiving lackluster production. I’m sure we’ve all heard the expression “shaking off the rust,” but was it predictable how poorly Watson performed on his first couple of games back? Today, I’m going to be answering just that by investigating

How Quarterbacks Perform on Their First Game Back After an Extended Leave

Let’s set some boundaries first. Since I can’t seem to find a reliable source of every QB placed on IR/suspended/whatever-other-causes-of-missing-games list the last 20 years (dating back to the 2002-2003 season), I’m going to go team by team, season by season to find starting QBs who have missed more than eight consecutive regular season games in a season and then returned to start a game. I’m also going to be looking at their fantasy points-per-game (PPG) in the six games before their leave and then their fantasy points in the two games after they return from their leave. 

A common problem I imagine I’ll be running into is backup QBs who come in for one game, miss eight or more games in a row, and then play another game. To avoid this, I will be determining who the “starter” is as who plays the first offensive snap of the season. I’m not super interested in their performance in the years post-leave as the point of this article is not to tell you if Deshaun Watson is ever going to be good again, and because @McNamaraDynasty investigated this while I was writing this article. This article is only to investigate whether or not there is a trend of players performing well or not relative to their normal performance immediately after their return. Finally, I’m not going to be taking into account defenses played upon their return. The information for fantasy defenses on a week-to-week basis dating back the last 20 years is largely inaccessible, but there is easily enough data that the numbers should average out regardless. On to the data. 

AFC NORTH 

Cleveland Browns

• 2016 Robert Griffin III INJ 
• 6 games before: 10.3, 22.34, 8.9, 17.04, 1.32, 4.34 
• 2 games after: 12.26, 18.64 
• 2007 Charlie Frye BEN 
• 6 games before: 0.8, 13, 10.3, 9.8, 13.9, 15.1 
• 2 games after: 15.2, 3.3 
• 2002 Kelly Holcomb BEN 
• 6 games before: 17.9, 18, 28.3, 8.56, -4.84, -1.68 
• 2 games after: 8.2, 3.28 

Pittsburgh Steelers

• 2019 Ben Roethlisberger INJ 
• 6 games before: 3, 10.74, 14.78, 29.6, 15.1, 19.28
• 2 games after: 22.06, 19.24 
• 2004 Tommy Maddox BEN (X) 
• 6 games before: 2.78, 6.98, -1.68, 18.4, 5.48, 12.64
• 2 games after: -0.1, 5 

Baltimore Ravens

• 2002 Chris Redman INJ 
• 6 games before: 14.18, 5.12, 16.52, 14.08, 3.64, 10.62
• 2 games after: 0, -1.28 

Cincinnati Bengals

• 2020 Joe Burrow INJ
• 6 games before: 12.32, 12.52, 18.86, 35.64, 17.72, 6.32
• 2 games after: 18.64, 13.28 

AFC SOUTH 

Indianapolis Colts

• 2017 Andrew Luck INJ 
• 6 games before: 12.74, 18.68, 18.24, 18.8, 22.72, 20.54
• 2 games after: 19.46, 11.36 
• 2011 Peyton Manning INJ 
• 6 games before: 11.4, 14.5, 20.76, 17.16, 17.66, 18.56
• 2 games after: 18.42, 21.2 

Houston Texans

• N/A 

Tennessee Titans

• 2019 Marcus Mariota BEN 
• 6 games before: 24.32, 13.36, 15.56, 23.28, 8.62, -1.08
• 2 games after: 0.96, 25.84 
• 2008 Vince Young INJ 
• 6 games before: 1.04, 18.84, 4.74, 8.18, 4.8, 1.96
• 2 games after: 4.7, 0.6 
• 2006 Kerry Collins BEN (X) 
• 6 games before: 7.38, 5.12, 25.24, 4.92, -1.72, 10.76
• 2 games after: 0.0, 5 .0

Jacksonville Jaguars

• 2019 Nick Foles INJ 
• 6 games before: 2.58, 18.16, 15.24, 19.44, 11.42, 1.32
• 2 games after: 17.84, 12.88 
• 2014 Chad Henne BEN (X) 
• 6 games before: 15.68, 15.58, 15.24, 19.44, 11.42, 1.32
• 2 games after: -0.2, -0.3 
• 2013 Blaine Gabbert INJ 
• 6 games before: 13.2, 7.36, .96, 7.84, 2.16, 2.44 
• 2 games after: 6.02, 14.6 
• 2006 Byron Leftwich INJ 
• 6 games before: 0.72, 12.18, 5.68, 23, 13.8, 5
• 2 games after: -0.78, 10.4 
• 2003 Mark Brunell BEN (X) 
• 6 games before: 7.52, 21.62, 2.96, 18.68, 12.18, 4.4
• 2 games after: 5.1, 8.38 

AFC EAST 

Buffalo Bills

• 2014 EJ Manuel BEN 
• 6 games before: 2.26, 17.42, 16.82, 12.68, 15.92, 15.3
• 2 games after: -0.2, 14.72 
• 2010 Trent Edwards BEN 
• 6 games before: 8.08, 1.72, 9.8, -0.04, 10.76, 1.28
• 2 games after: 9.4, 0.56 

New York Jets

• 2022 Joe Flacco BEN 
• 6 games before: 14.4, 5.88, 19.94, 14.36, 28.88, 7.4
• 2 games after: -0.96, N/A 
• 2005 Chad Pennington INJ 
• 6 games before: 22.02, 10.78, 12.94, 8.56, 16.8, 0.54
• 2 games after: 21.46, 18.44 
• 2003 Vinny Testaverde BEN 
• 6 games before: 16.92, 13.3, 8.7, 17.1, 12.5, 8.5 
• 2 games after: 18.2, 10.9 
• 2002 Vinny Testaverde BEN 
• 6 games before: 5.08, 11.1, 20.8, 6.0, -1.1, 0 
• 2 games after: -0.6, 18.2 

Miami Dolphins

• 2011 Chad Henne INJ 
• 6 games before – 12.5, .8, 34.5, 11.4, 14.8, -.8 
• 2 games after – -1.1, 3.2 
• 2009 Chad Pennington INJ 
• 6 games before – 14.6, 19.2, 14.2, 7, 5.7, .5 
• 2 games after – 0.76, N/A 
• 2006 Daunte Culpepper INJ 
• 6 games before – 23.3, 2.9, 7.3, 12.7, 13.2, 14 
• 2 games after – 2.1, 15.6 

New England Patriots

• 2008 Tom Brady INJ 
• 6 games before: 17.7, 32.4, 4.5, 17.7, 21.8, 3 
• 2 games after: 22, 6.8 

AFC WEST 

Kansas City Chiefs

• 2009 Brodie Croyle INJ 
• 6 games before: -3.1, 2.2, 7.3, 3.52, 2.5, 15.1 
• 2 games after: 0.1, 2 
• 2008 Brodie Croyle INJ 
• 6 games before: -0.3, -3.1, 2.2, 7.3, 3.52, 2.5
• 2 games after: 15.1, 0.1 
• 2006 Trent Green INJ 
• 6 games before: 15.4, 17.6, 7.1, 17, 17.7, 3.7 
• 2 games after: 4.5, 5.4 

Las Vegas Raiders

• 2011 Jason Campbell INJ 
• 6 games before: 14.4, 25.22, 7.24, 16.66, 13.6, 3.68
• 2 games after: 0, 4.26 
• 2003 Rich Gannon INJ 
• 6 games before: 19.16, 4.22, 24.52, 3.78, 10.7, 0.42
• 2 games after: 16.2, 14.76 

Denver Broncos

• 2019 Joe Flacco INJ 
• 6 games before: 6.0, 23, 9, 6, 6.5, 7.9 
• 2 games after: 0.6, 13.8 

Los Angeles Chargers

• 2020 Tyrod Taylor INJ (X) 
• 6 games before: 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, -0.2, 9, 0.0
• 2 games after: 23.6, 16.5 

NFC NORTH 

Detroit Lions

• 2019 Matthew Stafford INJ 
• 6 games before: 25.8, 24.4, 29.6, 11.5, 23.4, 12.1
• 2 games after: 17.2, 17.2 
• 2010 Matthew Stafford INJ 
• 6 games before: 33.6, 6.6, 5.5, 1.3, 14.5, 24.7 
• 2 games after: 22.2, 25.9 
• 2008 Jon Kitna INJ 
• 6 games before: 3.4, 9.84, 17.28, 13.74, 9.74, 2.96
• 2 games after: 12.36, 7.32 

Green Bay Packers

• N/A 

Minnesota Vikings 

• 2017 Sam Bradford INJ 
• 6 games before: 17.4, 7.6, 25.8, 22.4, 25.5, 1.4
• 2 games after: 2.8, 1.6 
• 2016 Shaun Hill BEN 
• 6 games before: 14.8, -0.2, .5, 0, -0.4, 10.2 
• 2 games after: 0.2, -0.3 
• 2014 Matt Cassel INJ 
• 6 games before: 29.2, 2.2, 10.1, 14.5, 5.7, 2.6 
• 2 games after: 0.0, 7.5 
• 2005 Daunte Culpepper INJ 
• 6 games before: 8.2, 27.5, 11, 6.9, 23.3, 2.9 
• 2 games after: 7.3, 12.7 

Chicago Bears

• 2017 Mike Glennon BEN (X) 
• 6 games before: 9, 0, 12.5, 10, 6.4, 4.7 
• 2 games after: 8.4, 2.5 
• 2004 Rex Grossman INJ 
• 6 games before: 6.2, 16, 1.2, 5.2, 8, 15.9 
• 2 games after: 1.7, 8.6 

NFC SOUTH 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• 2013 Josh Freeman BEN 
• 6 games before: 12.7, 11.0, 10.4, 6.6, 7.8, 5.6 
• 2 games after: 10.4, N/A 
• 2009 Byron Leftwich BEN 
• 6 games before: 5.4, 9.1, 10, 15.3, 19.8, -0.8
• 2 games after: 1.7, 2.9 
• 2006 Chris Simms INJ 
• 6 games before: 6.1, 15.6, 13.9, -0.4, 6.8, 13.7
• 2 games after: 0.3, -1.5 
• 2005 Brian Griese INJ 
• 6 games before: 12.3, 5.2, 11.6, 14.8, 7.8, 8.9
• 2 games after: 0.1, 1.0
• 2004 Brad Johnson BEN 
• 6 games before: 23.9, -2.2, 2.8, -.3, 21.7, 11.2
• 2 games after: 0.0, 13.5 

New Orleans Saints

• 2022 Jameis Winston INJ 
• 6 games before: 26.8, 16.9, 10.2, 21.7, 10.6, 16.6
• 2 games after: N/A 
• 2021 Jameis Winston INJ 
• 6 games before: 10.3, 13.5, 13, 26.8, 16.9, 10.2
• 2 games after: 21.7, 10.6 

Carolina Panthers

• 2019 Cam Newton INJ 
• 6 games before: 22.5, 15.3, 10.9, 4.7, 6.4, 11.3
• 2 games after: 25.7, 35.6 
• 2010 Matt Moore INJ 
• 6 games before: 4.8, 5.2, -2.6, 18.6, 6.3, .5 
• 2 games after: 4.6, 4.2 
• 2007 Jake Delhomme INJ 
• 6 games before: 6.7, 19.8, 16, 21.2, 23.9, 12.5
• 2 games after: 15.5, 3.6 
• 2003 Rodney Peete BEN 
• 6 games before: 5.3, 20.7, 6.5, 8.8, 8.2, 0.8 
• 2 games after: 0.0, N/A 

Atlanta Falcons

• N/A 

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys

• 2020 Dak Prescott INJ 
• 6 games before: 29.6, 17.6, 39.8, 29.5, 38.3, 13.4
• 2 games after: 28.4, 8.5 
• 2010 Tony Romo INJ 
• 6 games before: 15.3, 14.9, 19.3, 23.1, 21, 5.6
• 2 games after: 18.6, 21.8 
• 2002 Quincy Carter BEN 
• 6 games before: 18.3, 1.4, 12.8, 16.3, 15.7, 5.5
• 2 games after: 11.8, 18.5 

Philadelphia Eagles 

• 2018 Nick Foles BEN 
• 6 games before: 2.6, 25.5, 8.5, -0.4, 4.1, 15.7
• 2 games after: 9.3, 30.9 
• 2014 Nick Foles INJ 
• 6 games before: 26.2, 3.9, 13.6, 14.4, 21.8, 7.1
• 2 games after: 16.8, 11.2 

Washington Commanders

• 2022 Carson Wentz INJ 
• 6 games before: 29.7, 28.8, 8.6, 9.3, 22.9, 4.2
• 2 games after: N/A 
• 2020 Dwayne Haskins BEN 
• 6 games before: 19.0, 13.3, 12.8, 11.7, 12.2, 18.9
• 2 games after: 0.8, 16.6 

New York Giants

• 2019 Eli Manning BEN (X) 
• 6 games before: 19.9, 5.2, 20.4, 18.2, 14.8, 12.2
• 2 games after: 16.0, 16.3 

NFC WEST 

San Francisco 49ers 

• 2022 Trey Lance INJ 
• 6 games before: 20.4, 15.6, 0.4, 20.1, 11, 2.5
• 2 games after: N/A 
• 2020 Jimmy Garoppolo INJ 
• 6 games before: 19.3, 13.2, 1.1, 23.5, 9.5, 2.8
• 2 games after: 14.8, 19.6 
• 2018 Jimmy Garoppolo INJ 
• 6 games before: 18.6, 22, 15.6, 9, 16.6, 22.3 
• 2 games after: 11.4, 23.6 
• 2009 Shaun Hill BEN 
• 6 games before: 10.4, 7.5, 13.8, 13.9, 11.2, 2.0
• 2 games after: -0.9, 21 
• 2005 Tim Rattay BEN (X) 
• 6 games before: 4.1, 2.9, 14.4, -1.7, 20.9, 2.9
• 2 games after: 3.3, 20.7 

Seattle Seahawks

• N/A 

Los Angeles Rams

• 2014 Shaun Hill BEN 
• 6 games before: 13.4, 1.1, 0.1, 14.8, -0.2, 1.14 
• 2 games after: 0.5, 0 
• 2013 Sam Bradford INJ 
• 6 games before: 26.6, 13.6, 9.7, 21.3, 17.1, 12.3 
• 2 games after: 13.4, 7.9 
• 2003 Kurt Warner BEN 
• 6 games before: 11.4, 11.1, -1.3, 18, 4.8, 15.7 
• 2 games after: 0.9, 8.1 

Arizona Cardinals

• 2007 Matt Leinart INJ 
• 6 games before: 10.5, 7.6, 13.6, 2.3, 4.6, 2 
• 2 games after: 1.1, 8.3 
• 2006 Kurt Warner BEN (X) 
• 6 games before: 12.5, 8.6, 24, 11.3, 9.2, 2.5 
• 2 games after: 4.0, 18.2 

Now, let’s exclude all of the quarterbacks here who were benched in favor of a rookie first-round pick quarterback 

• 2004 Tommy Maddox (Ben Roethlisberger) 
• 2006 Kerry Collins (Vince Young) 
• 2014 Chad Henne (Blake Bortles) 
• 2003 Mark Brunell (Byron Leftwich) 
• 2020 Tyrod Taylor (Justin Herbert) 
• 2017 Mike Glennon (Mitch Trubisky) 
• 2019 Eli Manning (Daniel Jones) 
• 2005 Tim Rattay (Alex Smith) 
• 2006 Kurt Warner (Matt Leinart) 

Now we’re left with 63 quarterbacks who have missed more than eight consecutive games. Let’s find the average fantasy PPG before and after their injuries. For this segment, I’m going to be looking at the sample holistically, and then dividing the INJ and nonINJ players to see if there’s a difference in PPG between missing time due to injury or not. Some players on this list were injured and then benched (think 2022 Jameis Winston or 2022 Carson Wentz). For the sake of simplicity, I’m giving them an injured designation. 

INJ 

Mean PPG before injury: 12.27 

Mean PPG game 1 after injury: 10.63 -13% 

Mean PPG game 2 after injury: 11.01 -10% 

BEN 

Mean PPG before being benched: 10.02 

Mean PPG game 1 after return: 4.42 -56%

Mean PPG game 2 after return: 11.75 +17% 

TOTAL

Mean PPG before leave: 11.9 

Mean PPG game 1 after return: 8.66 -27% 

Mean PPG game 2 after return: 11.22 -5% 

Conclusions 

Injured players tend to not perform well on their first game back or second game back, but trend up on their second game back, meaning they really do have to shake off the rust. 

Benched players, however, perform horribly on their first games back, as seen by the 56% drop in production. I’ve found that this number does not tell the full story; most of the players seen here who return after being benched do not play a full game on that first game back, meaning they may only be seeing a quarter or two of playing time which would result in the low fantasy production. Most of them play the entire game on their second game back, and their fantasy production goes up from their respective norms. Perhaps they’re hungry to have their job back after being benched? I’ll let you be the judge. 

In total, we see that fantasy production drops on the first game back (which is weighed down by the large number of benched players who come in mid-game), but we see production return almost to normal by game two, with only a 5% drop. Who does this matter for in the future? Joe Flacco (15.14 average) was benched and returned for one game before being benched again. Using the information attained, I’m projecting 17.71 points upon his first game starting under center. 

Jameis Winston (17.13 average) was injured. I’m projecting 14.9 points in his first game starting under center, and 15.42 points during his second game. 

Carson Wentz (17.25 average) was injured. I’m projecting 15 points upon his first game starting under center, and 15.53 points during his second game. 

Trey Lance (11.66 average) was injured. I’m projecting 10.14 points in his first game starting under center, and 10.5 points in his second game. 

Of course, these are incredibly specific projections and could be wrong, but the overarching theme of this data is that quarterbacks DO have to shake off the rust, and they perform significantly worse than they usually do on their first games back.

Thanks so much for reading! For other informative dynasty articles, make sure to stay tuned at dynastyfootballfactory.com. If you liked this also follow me @716DFF, and the whole DFF team @DFF_Dynasty.