Grading Bryce Young’s Rookie Season

It’s no secret that things did not go according to plan for the Carolina Panthers in 2023. After giving up a king’s ransom to draft Bryce Young with the first overall pick, the Panthers proceeded to scrape together two measly wins, finishing dead last in the NFL. To acquire Young, Carolina gave Chicago two 2023 first-round picks, a 2025 second-round pick, D.J. Moore, and their 2024 first-round pick, which ended up being the 1.01 in the upcoming NFL Draft. Unsurprisingly, the Panthers’ front office was not pleased with the results of this trade and have subsequently fired GM Scott Fitterer in hopes of moving forward from this colossal blunder. 

We know the Panthers lost this trade; there’s no debate about that. What I’d like to discuss today is how Bryce Young performed relative to expectations this season and whether or not he is a player worth investing in for Dynasty moving forward. Let’s find out if Bryce is a bust or a buy-low candidate! 

College Production

Bryce Young was a 3-year player and 2-year starter for the University of Alabama, putting together two incredible seasons for the Crimson Tide as a sophomore and junior. Young finished his collegiate career with 8,356 passing yards, 80 passing touchdowns, seven rushing touchdowns, and a 165 passer rating. His sophomore season was the better of the two, throwing for over 4,800 yards with 50 total touchdowns, a season that ended with Young hoisting up the Heisman trophy. Young became just the eighth underclassman in CFB history to win the Heisman. 

Bryce took a small step back in production in Year 3 but also played in three fewer games than in Year 2. He was still one of the most efficient passers in college football, and the numbers back this up. Young finished his 2021 and 2022 seasons in the top 10 in adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) and passer rating. 

Rookie Year

We’ve talked about the good- now, let’s talk about the bad and the ugly. Bryce Young went around the 1.02-1.05 spot in most Dynasty Superflex rookie drafts last fall. While we don’t draft rookie QBs with the expectation they will produce for our Dynasty teams immediately, Bryce failed to meet all expectations from a fantasy perspective. Young ended the year with 10.4 fantasy points per game, putting him as the QB30 overall, according to PlayerProfiler. 

When we look at the efficiency numbers for Bryce, they don’t look pretty. Young was outside the Top-30 QBs in yards per attempt (YPA) and AY/A with just 5.5 and 4.5, respectively. He was also outside the top 20 in virtually every completion percentage metric, including true completion, deep ball, pressured, clean pocket, play-action, and red zone completion. One word…yikes. 

Below is a chart from @fball_insights, which tracked EPA per play and completion percentage over expected for all rookie QBs since 2012. 

Despite Bryce Young’s dismal completion numbers, he was slightly above average in completion percentage over expected, right around 0% (meaning he completed as many passes as expected). The average rookie QB since 2012 was around 2% under expected. So, what does this tell us about Bryce Young? Well, the poor statistics may be more about a subpar receiving corps than it is about the guy throwing the ball. If receivers aren’t creating the needed separation, you won’t be completing as many passes as someone with a ton of receiving weapons. 

(Side note: Patrick Mahomes‘ Year 2 numbers were used in this chart, as he didn’t hit the 150-play minimum threshold as a rookie.)

Here’s one more chart from @fball_insights, showing a quarterback’s “highly accurate throw percentage” on first reads vs. second reads. As you can see, Bryce Young was in the top right quartile, suggesting he is an above-average passer in the NFL. He just lacks any sort of surrounding cast. 

Young also didn’t get much help from his offensive line. He was sacked 62 times this season, 2nd in the NFL, behind only Sam Howell at 65. He does need to do a better job of recognizing where the pressure is coming from and getting the ball out quicker or escaping trouble. The collapsed pockets forced Young into a number of mental mistakes this season, as he had a few interceptions that left fans scratching their heads. 

Final Grade

When I look at everything as a whole, I’m giving Bryce Young a C- for his rookie season. He dealt with a below-average offensive line, Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders as his RB tandem, and a WR trio of Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and Jonathan Mingo. Realistically, there was no way he would put up fantasy numbers worthy of hitting our starting lineups in Year 1. That said, I was still expecting more from the former Heisman winner. Just two wins and 11 touchdown passes over the entire NFL regular season is not what you expect from the first overall pick, regardless of team outlook. 

As I alluded to in my prior article about Brock Purdy (the article is linked here), situation is something we should still be weighing heavily on our Dynasty teams. You probably hear Dynasty analysts say “talent over situation” all the time on Twitter/X. While I agree that situation can change, the point is to win fantasy football championships here. If we can reasonably expect Bryce Young to remain a Carolina Panther for the foreseeable future, that should be taken into consideration. Would Young have put up better numbers if he were a Houston Texan and C.J. Stroud went 1.01? Probably, but he didn’t. I expect Young to continue to go through some growing pains in Year 2, but I think he has the talent to be an NFL starter for a long time. 

Dynasty Value

The benefit of being the first overall pick is you’ll have a long leash. At minimum, I believe Bryce will have at least one more full season to show the Panthers some signs of promise. They gave up a ton to get their guy in the draft, so you know they want him to succeed. On KeepTradeCut, Bryce Young is valued as the QB17 overall, just ahead of Will Levis and right around a late 2024 1st. Justin Fields and Jared Goff are both ranked directly ahead of Young on this list, which I disagree with. I prefer Young over both players. Fields has much less job security, and Goff is an older veteran who doesn’t give you that league-winning upside. Young has a much lower floor than Goff but a higher ceiling. Excluding incoming rookies, I’d value Bryce Young as QB15, and he’ll likely be around my QB18 after the NFL Draft. I wouldn’t be looking to buy Young aggressively, but if you can get him for the 2024 rookie pick 1.10-1.12, I’d be more than fine making a move like this in Superflex Leagues. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding