WIDE RECEIVER, OHIO STATE, ELIGIBLE FOR 2022 NFL DRAFT
Garrett Wilson is a 6’0” and 193 lbs. five-star wide receiver for the Ohio State Buckeyes. He was the WR2 and 20th overall prospect from the 2022 class.
PAST PRODUCTION (COLLEGE STATS)
In his true freshman season, Wilson caught 26 passes for 385 yards and five TDs. Within the context of the Ohio State offense, he accounted for 11.4% of their receiving yardage and 10.6% of their receiving scoring. This equates to an 11.0% dominator rating and an 11.3% adjusted dominator rating. Wilson also averaged 1.07 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout.
Ohio State is infamous for stockpiling depth in the receiver room, and 2019 was no exception. Wilson had to compete with J.K. Dobbins, Chris Olave, and Ohio State’s all-time leading receiver in terms of receptions. Olave was the trusted WR1 for Justin Fields in Wilson’s freshman season, however, Wilson was able to earn the WR1 role by the end of his sophomore season.
Ever since this catch in the College Football Playoff, Wilson’s stock has taken off:
In his sophomore season, Wilson caught 43 passes for 723 yards and six TDs. His yards per catch increased to 16.8, where above 16 is a statistically significant indicator for an NFL player’s deep-threat ability. Despite the counting stats not being as strong as some others due to the Big Ten’s strange season, Wilson accounted for 34.4% of the receiving yardage and 27.3% of the receiving scoring. This equates to a 30.9% dominator rating, and a 33% adjusted dominator rating.
Achieving over a 30% dominator rating is statistically significant for indicating future NFL success as a top fantasy receiver. Wilson’s 3.21 yards per team pass attempt was fifth among Power Five receivers in 2020. He also had the 14th best single-season dominator rating among Ohio State receivers since 2000. He also joined Michael Jenkins (2X), Chris Olave, and Santonio Holmes as the only Ohio State receivers to surpass 3 yards per team pass attempt.
Garrett Wilson has spent his collegiate career catching passes from the second overall prospect from the 2018 class in Justin Fields and will conclude his Ohio State career in 2021 catching passes from C.J. Stroud who was 2020’s QB3 behind only D.J. Uiagalelei and Bryce Young.
2021 OUTLOOK/PERFORMANCE
While Ohio State will certainly be a less potent offense with Justin Fields declaring for the NFL Draft, Ohio State has been known to reload quickly, having been to four of the seven college football playoffs since its inception. Wilson’s running partner, Chris Olave will be returning to Ohio State for his senior season, so Wilson’s defenses will not be able to strategically key in on him.
C.J. Stroud is a strong quarterback prospect, and Ohio State has been a pipeline for NFL prospects and has a very strong track record with wide receivers translating to the NFL game. Brian Hartline is distancing himself as one of, if not the best recruiter of wide receivers in the nation, as well as a top-notch developer of receiving skills once they get top-level recruits into the program. Michael Thomas, Terry McLaurin, Cris Carter, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, David Boston, Ted Ginn Jr, and Santonio Holmes are some examples of top-level NFL wide receivers coming out of Columbus.
DEVY ANALYSIS
What’s the outlook for the next 3-5 years?
Garrett Wilson is currently being selected at the end of the first round of devy drafts, which is correctly priced for his current age-adjusted production but also offers an opportunity to gain value throughout the 2021 season. Wilson is most likely to be a fringe first-round receiver in the 2022 draft and will be a first-round pick in rookie drafts at this point next off-season.
Wilson’s best traits revolve around his ball tracking abilities. He has a similar play style to DeVonta Smith, except he has a frame more NFL-ready. Wilson predominantly played in the slot in 2020, a move that led to four-straight 100-yard games.
Ohio State had to deal with the impacts of COVID-19 more than many other programs, as their Big Ten championship game was initially ruled to be ineligible for having not played in the minimum baseline number of games. The week after their canceled game against Illinois, Wilson saw a precipitous drop in production, one could easily surmise that Wilson finished the 2020 season while dealing with COVID symptoms.
Wilson is a solid buy in devy drafts at his current cost, as he is a player that could develop into a top receiver in the NFL. The only question surrounding Wilson is speculation that he may come back for his senior season as Olave did. If Ohio State does struggle with a new quarterback at the helms, Wilson could see value in coming back for a fourth season to increase his draft stock. Otherwise, there are no other red flags on his profile that would cause hesitation in pulling the trigger to acquire Garrett Wilson.
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