In this series, I’ll be taking a deep dive into an NFL team situation as we turn to 2021. We will look at coaching/GM changes, team needs, salary cap/free agents, and overall fantasy outlook for 2021. The next team on the list: the Atlanta Falcons.
COACHING/GM CHANGES
The Atlanta Falcons fired head coach Dan Quinn after an 0-5 start to 2020. DC Raheem Morris took over as the interim head coach, finishing with a 4-7 record. GM Thomas Dimitroff was also fired, leaving behind a cap-strapped team with a few bad contracts that will make life for the new General Manager a hell of a lot tougher.
As of right now, Arthur Smith is slated to become the next head coach of the Falcons. Smith spent the last 10 years with the Tennessee Titans in various roles. His longest position held was the Tight Ends coach, where he spent six of his ten seasons. His final two seasons in Tennessee were spent as the offensive coordinator. Arthur Smith’s offenses were top-10 in rushing attempts both years as the OC. They also ranked near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. In contrast, the Falcons offense in 2020 led the NFL in pass attempts with 626. A philosophical shift in the offensive scheme is on the horizon in Atlanta.
TEAM NEEDS
Front Seven
In 2020, the Falcons defense ranked 19th in points allowed, 29th in yards allowed, and 27th in opposing QBR. Atlanta struggled to create turnovers, ranking near the bottom of the league. In 16 games, the Falcons managed 29 sacks and 12 interceptions. The bright side is Grady Jarrett is under contract for the next few years. Add in Dante Fowler Jr., and Deion Jones, and this defense has potential. Adding another force in the front seven should be the top priority this offseason. With offenses in the division like Tampa Bay and New Orleans, beefing up a below-average defense is crucial to the success of the team in 2021.
Running Back
Todd Gurley and Brian Hill are free agents heading into 2021. Arthur Smith has spent the last two seasons calling plays with Derrick Henry at running back. I am looking at the Falcons adding a true workhorse runner in either the draft or free agency. Ito Smith and Qadree Ollison are still on the roster, but neither should be in consideration for starting reps in 2021.
Offensive Line
The Falcons spent two first-round picks in 2019 on their offensive line. It seems that despite the draft capital they’ve invested, the Falcons continue to have problems up front. As a unit, PFF ranked Atlanta’s offensive line 21st in the NFL. Giving up 163 pressures, 66 quarterback hits, and 41 sacks in 2020, they were a unit that did not seem to gel together. If the right guy falls to the Falcons on day-two, I think they should pull the trigger.
SALARY CAP AND IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Atlanta’s cap situation is a rough one. Currently sitting at $32 million over the cap, the next GM of the team will have a tough time navigating the waters of NFL free agency. With big money tied up between Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, the Falcons do not have much flexibility. They will need to make some tough decisions for the 2021 season.
Yannick Ngakoue, DE
This defense in 2020 ranked 26th in sack % over 16 games. Grabbing a guy like Yannick Ngakoue on a 1-year deal could be a great option for Atlanta. Ngakoue is currently on the Baltimore Ravens after being traded away from Jacksonville to Minnesota. Ultimately ending up in Baltimore. The chances of the Ravens realizing the talent they have and resigning him are high. However, I could see Yannick choosing a bigger offer to play elsewhere.
Bud Dupree, OLB
The situation in Pittsburg has me nervous about the steelers entering a rebuild. Again, the chances that Pittsburg keeps Dupree are strong, but if a rebuild does happen in the steel city, you could see Dupree look to join another team for 2021. Atlanta should be aggressive and target players of this caliber to try to maximize the years remaining in Matt Ryan’s career.
Chris Carson, RB
Arthur Smith leaned heavily on Derrick Henry in Tennessee, and rightfully so. Henry is a physical back that thrives with increased volume. Chris Carson is a violent runner that also thrives with an increase in volume. Despite his fumbling problems in Seattle, Carson is the type of back you can give 300+ touches to. If Arthur Smith intends to continue his offensive philosophy that he employed in Tennessee, Chris Carson could be the perfect player to lead this backfield in 2021.
2021 FANTASY OUTLOOK
This could be one of the most drastic changes in offensive identity that we have seen in quite some time. There is a realistic possibility that the Falcons could go from the NFL leader in pass attempts, to the NFL leader in rush attempts. Whichever running back signs or is drafted to Atlanta should walk into a massive workload in 2021. Sign me up!
As for the passing game, the Tennessee Titans passing offense thrived on efficiency with low volume. An elite running game could help give this offense more flow and success. At times in 2020, you would have been hard-pressed to find a team more in the dark about their offensive identity. Arthur Smith should be able to boost this passing attack by playing balanced football. I am doing whatever I can this offseason to acquire pieces of this offense in 2021.
Thank you for reading! You can find the rest of my work at DFF and follow me on Twitter @FF_Derrick. Reach out to me anytime with anything fantasy football related! Seize the moment! Say less, do MORE!
 NFL Deep Dive by Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
