Dynasty Analysis
Trevor Lawrence is perhaps the best quarterback prospect ever. Coming out of high school Lawrence was rated the second-highest among quarterbacks behind only Vince Young historically. The 6’6” and 220 lbs. Clemson superstar led his team to a National Championship as a true freshman over the great Alabama Crimson Tide. To this date, Lawrence has led his Tigers to a 27-1 record with the sole loss coming against the best statistical offense in college football history. In those 28 games, Lawrence has thrown for a ridiculous 70 TDs versus only 12 interceptions, which is good for a 5.8 TD to interception ratio. He also averages 8.9-yards per attempt, and amazingly all of these statistics are going to increase in a conference only play season. NFL draft experts Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, and Dane Brugler all have Lawrence as the first overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.
Week three is when you know. If a guy has been bad for the first two weeks, it can be easy to chalk it up to small sample size. If a guy is bad for three straight games, you can’t pretend anymore. The story is the same with breakout players. Calvin Ridley, D.K. Metcalf, and James Robinson? Yeah, they’re for real. Joe Mixon and Carson Wentz? Time to move on. Now that you know, the next move is to adjust your expectations. Let go of whatever pre-draft notions you have and take an honest look at the players on your team. And then… get to dealing!
Welcome back to Dynasty Sleeper of the Week! As mentioned in previous weeks, this is not a waiver article. This is more of a player that should be on your radar article. Last week we hit the running back position. This week I am hitting a tight end I believe can be added today that you can plug and play over some TEs you are holding on to in your leagues. That player is Jordan Akins of the Houston Texans. According to ESPN, he is owned in 3.8% of leagues at the moment on My Fantasy League it jumps to 42%, however, I still do not believe that this is enough for a TE that has shown some flashes the past few weeks. If you can grab Jordan today, do it.
Every week, I’m going to break down an entire division, focusing on their play on the field that week. Specifically, I’ll go through each team and focus on their dynasty assets, especially anybody who suffered injuries or a massive value change. I won’t look at any player or team in too much detail. This article is more of a summary piece. I also included links to all my previous divisional nuggets articles at the bottom of the page. With that said, let’s jump right in!
Brady has not been the world-beater of the past for your fantasy team this year and more than likely a bridge quarterback for your roster while you find future depth. Yet through three games the only disappointing statistic in his game log is that he is 20th in passing yards per game. Evans being hampered week one, and Godwin missing week two may have dampened his production through the start of the season, but against the Broncos he posted decent numbers for your team having all of his weapons back and healthy. Hopefully, the team will continue to gel, and the yards per game will increase, pushing him up from his 21st overall fantasy quarterback position.
A great week as we went 2-1 on our in-depth picks and 11-5(!) overall! After some average 9-7 starts this was shot in the arm we were looking for. Our strategy of picking against the Jets continues to work to perfection and (spoiler alert) we’re going to roll with it again this week. Unfortunately, Biscuits could not keep her hot streak going and fell to 2-1 on the season. No worries though, she told me she already has her next pick locked and loaded!
This weekly article is focused on identifying players who are owned in less than 40% of redraft leagues. These players are going to help your team win this week and every week to come! We are looking for guys you should be able to plug into your starting lineup without hesitation. While there were still plenty of injuries around the league in Week 3, there should be much less waiver wire activity than last week as the player pool is beginning to dry up. But, we’ll continue to find you some opportunities to take advantage of!
Your author assumed responsibility for this weekly column midway through the 2019 season. Deep into a fantasy football season, the waiver wire is often simply a source for a line-up salve. I sought to recommend a player that could help a team survive and advance. I used immediate past production as an indicator of potential performance. I also considered scheme fit, match-up, game flow, snap counts, injuries, and returning players to make recommendations.
In this streaming article, I will provide you the best weekly options to stream quarterback, tight end, and D/ST. In each section, I’ll break down two streamers in detail, both of which will be under 50% owned, according to ESPN’s ownership percentage at the time of writing. Playing the matchups is a crucial feature of redraft fantasy football, and especially in a crazy 2020 season, active fantasy owners will have a massive advantage. I also want to provide added value for each type of streamer this season. I’ll highlight any players from 50-60% owned in each section if they’re superior options to both of my streaming candidates at that specific position. Those players are “probably owned,” but they could be out there in 10-team or shallower formats. I won’t offer analysis on these players, just the names and matchups.
If neither of my two suggested streamers is under 25% ownership percentage, I will give a “super-deep” option. That feature should help those owners playing in deeper leagues with few waiver-wire options. Like the “probably owned” players, I’ll list the players without analysis. I realize that all leagues are different, and I want to accommodate all of my readers.
I’m certain you’re in need of a running back, like every dynasty manager in 2020. It’s a battle of attrition. But, never fear, there still may be a few useful players left on the waiver wire to plug in for a couple of weeks. Seattle Seahawks’ running back Travis Homer is one of those players. The Seahawks’ starting running back suffered a sprained knee in Sunday’s matchup against the Dallas Cowboys and will likely miss some time. Homer, along with Carlos Hyde, will work as a tandem to fill Carson’s shoes. Hyde is probably already owned, but that’s ok. Homer provides a higher upside for PPR leagues as he will be utilized in the passing game more often.
I want to preface this article by saying that I will be using IDP123 scoring for reference in this article and future articles. It was created by Jordan Rains (@50shadesofdrunk on Twitter) to give us a more simplified and balanced system for IDP. We have standards on offense, why shouldn’t we have them on the defensive side as well. The scoring is easy as 123 though. One point for assisted tackles and quarterback hits. Two points for solo tackles and tackles for a loss. Three points for passes defended, forced fumbles, fumble recoveries, safeties, and blocked kicks. See easy as 123… We don’t want to forget the BIG PLAYS though, those are worth six points and include sacks, interceptions, defensive touchdowns. Now, enough of the soapbox, let’s get to the meat…the Nick Bosa injury.
The Dolphins drafted Gaskin in the seventh round of the 2019 NFL Draft. However, Gaskin never managed to see much playing time throughout the early part of the 2019 season. Kalen Ballage and Kenyan Drake opened the season as the Dolphins’ two primary running backs, with Mark Walton behind them.
I don’t have any specific plan for writing this article. Most of you reading this probably know me as the Twitter question guy or DFF’s content workhorse. And, you’re not wrong about either of those things. My goal is always to engage and interact with the community in any way possible, and those are the main ways I do it.
Stay ahead of the curve with Old Tom’s weekly dynasty stash…and potential redraft gems! After all your league mates cash in on their waiver claims, you can sneak in and pick up next week’s potential hot commodities. Is every one of these moves a dynasty steal? No. However, lest we never forget that Old Tom firmly believes great dynasties are built upon the shoulders of GM’s who never forget the importance of the now. Good luck, friends!
I’m taking my dead to me series into the dynasty realm. At least, dynasty leagues will be the primary focus for me in this series in the future. Writing about dynasty makes more sense for a series on burying a player, as we look at the player’s value over time. Now, it’s time to put the final burial on Rob Gronkowski. I mentioned Gronkowski in a short blurb in a risers and fallers article this week, but he deserves his own article. For someone who was once a star, he should get a proper send-off.
The Raiders selected Carr with the 36th overall pick in the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft. They had recently signed veteran free agent Matt Schaub as their starting quarterback, but they expected Carr to compete for the job. However, Carr quickly won the job out of camp, opening the season as the starter. Carr didn’t play so well as a rookie, and he wasn’t fantasy-relevant outside of superflex leagues.
In this article, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense. In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
Building lineups on a slate without Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, or Mark Andrews feels incredibly strange. Despite the absence of those cap-hogging superstars, there are plenty of great options at each position in Week 3. I’ll be breaking down all thirteen matchups, sharing my thoughts on player prices* and stacking opportunities. As you read, please note that the player names in bold are what I consider my “core” players or guys that I’m sliding into a large percentage of my lineups. Oh, and if you’re new to DFS, you should check out my DFS Tips and Tricks article here.
*All player prices referenced are from FanDuel.
In this weekly article, I’m going to look ahead to the following week. I’ll point out a few players below 50% owned on ESPN who have strong matchups next week that you can pick up ahead of time to beat the waiver run. I’ll also try and get ahead of breakouts that could happen in the current week, as predicting breakouts is the best way to save your FAAB budget.
The Saints drafted Smith in the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft with the 91st overall pick. At the time, the Saints had star wide receiver Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara as their top two receiving weapons. However, after those top two players, they had very few secondary options, with veterans Ben Watson and Ted Ginn as Smith’s main competition for targets.
After two weeks @DFF_JoeMem is leading the pack at 2-0 and 65.7 points ahead of @BombadilFantasy who is currently in second place. Joe picked from the 10th spot in the draft. His strategy to fade quarterback and tight end in favor of loading up on top tier running backs and wide receivers the first five rounds has certainly paid off early on. Gardner Minshew has been getting the start for the “New York Joes” showing you just how easy it is to find a startable quarterback in 1QB leagues. He’s avoided the injury bug thus far so we’ll see how he fairs the rest of season.
Thanks for tuning in to the second edition of the Rookie Stock Market. With two weeks of the NFL season in the books, trends are beginning to form. Let’s take a closer look, as we identify early season “Risers”, “Fallers”, “Buys”, and “Sells”.
Sample seemed to profile as a blocking tight end entering the NFL. In his first three years at Washington, he totaled only 21 receptions, 235 yards, and two touchdowns. He never played more than eight games in any of those seasons, and he wasn’t a relevant prospect. However, Sample slightly improved in 2018 in his senior season. He caught 25 passes for 252 yards and three touchdowns. While his performance wasn’t anything special, the Bengals saw enough to pick him in the second round. The Bengals drafted Sample in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft with the 52nd overall pick. At the time, I had never even heard of Sample. I couldn’t believe the Bengals passed on receiving tight end weapons like Jace Sternberger, Josh Oliver, Kahale Warring, and Dawson Knox to select Sample.
The 49ers are currently dealing with numerous injuries on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. For now, I’ll focus on the offense, although their defensive injuries are noteworthy for those rostering the 49ers’ D/ST unit. To summarize the defensive issues quickly, they lost Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas to torn ACLs, decimating their offensive line. I wouldn’t write off their D/ST, but fantasy owners should downgrade them moving forward.
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.