Dynasty Analysis
In the lead up to the 2019 season, Redraft Football Factory will be dissecting each division in the NFL to outline: Two ‘unbustable’ players – guys who have the highest floors and even higher ceilings, locked and loaded, bonafide top 10 prospects at their position; Two busts – primed to vastly under-produce their ADPs, destined …
Divisional Round Up – NFC West Read More »
In part one, we looked at tight ends I’m targeting in redraft for 2019. Now, I’ll give you three tight ends I’m fading at their draft costs. As mentioned in part one, the top three tight ends (Kelce, Ertz, Kittle) will not be mentioned in either article as I want to draw attention to some …
Tight Ends to Avoid in Redraft Read More »
In the lead up to the 2019 season, Redraft Football Factory will be dissecting each division in the NFL to outline two ‘unbustable’ players, two busts, two breakout players, two bounce-back candidates, and two sleepers. Today, we will examine the AFC South teams: the Colts, Texans, Jaguars, and Titans. Where is the best place to mine fantasy gold? Who can you rely on and who should you avoid? Read on, fellow members, and find out!
The mission of this article is to make our in-house experts sizzle and bristle over the hot button issues that face dynasty owners. Our experts make the entire route tree HOT as they address topics from the world of IDP, Devy, Start/Sit, Non-PPR (standard scoring), PPR, and everything in between. Try not to get burned by all the fiery YAC below! This is Dynasty Hot Routes, tight end edition!
In this article, we are going to take a look at a few bounce-back candidates for this season. For whatever the reason these players underperformed a year ago, but I am expecting them to bounce back this season and hopefully help lead fantasy owners to a championship. Let’s see who I believe will return to form in 2019.
DE, Leonard Williams, New York JetsWilliams’ best season came back in 2016 when he posted 68 tackles, seven sacks, and 19 quarterback hits. In the two years since, the Jets defense lost some keys pieces such as Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson, leaving Williams to carry the workload. With not much help, his numbers took a hit. While he still had the opportunity to make plays, with 45 combined quarterback hits the last two seasons, he just didn’t have enough around him to take advantage of these opportunities. Now we look to 2019, and the defense has added some much-needed talent and defenses won’t be able to focus on taking Williams out of the game. They signed big-time free agent CJ Mosley to play next to Avery Williamson and drafted rookie phenom Quinnen Williams, who will play nose tackle and keep teams from game planning around Leonard. Let’s not forget that they have superstar safety Jamal Adams at safety. Now that they have some talent to surround Williams with, I expect him to bounce back to the 2016 version. Teams won’t find it as easy to scheme for just him anymore. I believe 68 and seven-plus sacks is a very reasonable expectation for him this season. He can be had at a low buy value right now in most leagues, so now is the time to acquire him.
Welcome to the IDP Nation Podcast. We are your hosts Dan Cook and Darrell Winstead. We’ve got you covered from your LB1 to your taxi squad.
For years the downside to being a draft-aholic was realizing a few weeks into the season that the time and energy associated with setting a few dozen fantasy football lineups every week takes a lot of the fun out of the game. But between the ever-popular BB10s at NFFC, DRAFT once again offering a multi-million dollar best-ball tournament, and countless other best-ball options available out there, the popularity of this particular format continues to increase steadily. With the opening of NFL training camps this past week, fantasy football season is about to get into full swing. It’s likely those of us who play in dynasty leagues probably knocked out our rookie drafts months ago. But most redraft and keeper formats often don’t tee up their draft day until mid-August at the earliest. This means that despite the non-stop stream of NFL news and fantasy implications we diehards are eating up on an hourly basis, we’re actually in a bit of an activity lull right now. This period is the perfect time of year to start pulling the trigger on best-ball drafts, particularly if, like me, you love to draft fantasy football teams.
Free agency and the draft are finished and though we are still three plus months from the beginning of the season teams are starting to resemble what they are going to be heading into the season. I’m going to go division by division breaking down the IDP relevant starters and some sleepers to keep on your watch list for training camp or dynasty stashes. Denver Broncos Defensive Coordinator: Ed Donatell 3-4 DefenseCoach Donatell has been coaching in college or the professional ranks since 1979. He has eight years of DC experience. He and HC Vic Fangio have been coaching together since 2011. Donatell has the DC title but Fangio will be heavily involved in the plan of attack.Their Chicago Bears sported the number three defense in yards per game. Their 3-4 typically produces very good ILB and safety tackle numbers.IDP Relevant Defensive Tackles: Shelby Harris, Dre’Mont Jones, Zach KerrHarris will not kill you at his current NT position. Unfortunately, he lacks the girth of a true run plugger. Jones also doesn’t fit the traditional mold. He is good with hands and he can create a decent initial burst. Yet, double teams could swallow both guys up and out of tackle contention. Do not be surprised if either end up moving to DE during the next offseason. Kerr seems to be the forgotten commodity that could fill the 3-4 NT role. At 330 pounds (sorry to sound stereotypical) it is still baffling to me that Kerr is listed as a DE on most sites. He should get snaps all over. IDP Relevant Defensive Ends: Derek Wolfe, Adam Gotsis, Wolfe has never had more than six sacks in a season. He does have okay tackle totals over the last five seasons. He has definitely slowed down over the last two years and you can expect a snap regression. Gotsis was a reserve during his rookie year. Since then he has strung together two decent seasons. Some may even whisper about him being a breakout candidate. It is time to remind the masses that you must be JJ Watt strong to be an IDP weapon as a 3-4 DE.
Welcome to Episode 86 of the @DynastyTradesHQ Podcast! “#TradeAlerts, DJ …
DynastyTradesHQ Podcast Episode 86: #TradeAlerts, D.J. vs Curtis & The MidWestFFExpo Read More »
Football isn’t just played from one side of the ball. If you want a new and exciting form of fantasy football, incorporating Individual Defensive Players (IDP) into your roster may just be for you. But this can be an overwhelming new process. Have no fear, members, the Factory is here to tell you where to start in your IDP startups.
Welcome to the IDP Nation Podcast. We are your hosts Dan Cook and Darrell Winstead. We’ve got you covered from your LB1 to your taxi squad.
In this two-part article, we’re going to take a look first at three tight ends that I will be targeting at their current ADP and then in part two, examining three tight ends I’m fading at their ADP. As a quick note, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle will not be featured in either article. Those are the consensus top three tight ends for most experts and I want to discuss players that have received a bit less attention. Also, only three teams can grab one of those top-tier tight ends, so everyone else will need to decide on one of these later players. With all that said, let’s jump right into it.ADP is taken from Fantasy Football Calculator’s Half-PPR ADP.
Evan Engram (NYG)Evan Engram is a mid-round target at the tight end position for 2019 fantasy drafts. He is currently being drafted as the 61st player off the board as the TE5. While I also have Engram ranked as my TE5, I believe there is still value at his overall draft cost. In points per game, Engram finished as the TE4 in 2017 and then the TE7 in 2018, so a TE5 price seems appropriate. However, he is guaranteed to play a whole season in 2019 without the presence of target hog Odell Beckham Jr. In 2017, Engram received 115 targets when Beckham missed a majority of the season and was the unquestioned number one receiving option during that period. Then in 2018, Engram was having a quiet season until Beckham was out injured for the final four games. In those four contests, Engram topped 75 receiving yards in each game and totaled 22 receptions on 31 targets.
In the lead up to the 2019 season, Redraft Football Factory will be dissecting each division in the NFL to outline two ‘unbustable’ players, two busts, two breakout players, two bounce-back candidates, and two sleepers. Today, we will examine the AFC West teams: the Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos. Where is the best place to mine fantasy gold? Who can you rely on and who should you avoid? Read on, fellow members, and find out!
If you’re anything like me, there are fewer things in this world more satisfying than watching a wide receiver dismantle a defensive back with a nasty, precise route on his way to scoring a touchdown. You know exactly what I’m talking about, don’t you? You can picture it in your head – the receiver aggressively comes off the line and forces the cornerback into a frantic back peddle. Next, the receiver breaks hard towards the middle of the field…the defender’s hips turn…and suddenly you can feel the six points coming from your couch. The receiver turns upfield and is immediately so open, you wonder if the defender was ever there. The quarterback hits him in stride as he crosses the goal line while the defender is left behind. Simply beautiful.Now, maybe there are a few things in this world that are more satisfying than what I just described, but you have to appreciate the technical effort that goes into making that play happen in only a matter of seconds. One of the best young route runners in the league, and arguably the most exciting rookie wide receiver last year, is Calvin Ridley, and he is quickly making a name for himself in the league.Coming out of college, his Draft Profile Analysis started with the following statements from NFL Analyst Lance Zierlein, “Ridley has game-changing talent complete with blazing speed and rare route-running ability for a college prospect. He ran the full route tree at Alabama, has experience working in a pro-style attack and is a plug-and-play starter on day one.” Prior to him even stepping onto the field for a professional game, he was already known for his incredible route running abilities.Before I dive into the numbers and analysis, if you haven’t yet seen some of Calvin Ridley’s proficient route running, go do that and then come back and finish reading this. Better yet, check out some of my recent tweets and you’re sure to see some Ridley routes in there. I want you to be able to picture the greatness in your mind as I convince you that he is one of the most dominant young wideouts in the game.
Welcome to the IDP Nation Podcast. We are your hosts Dan Cook and Darrell Winstead. We’ve got you covered from your LB1 to your taxi squad.
NFL camps are in full swing, but so are the injuries. The first week of camp has brought on an onslaught of injuries and we’ve got Garret Price of the Dynasty Nerds in the house to help break them all down and how they affect your rosters. Then zombies, dynasty zombies, the kind that just …
It may only be August (almost), but it’s never too …
Whether you believe in the third-year breakout theory for wide receivers or not, there is a strong case to be made for a number of players from the 2017 NFL Draft class. I’m going to briefly discuss the notable third-year wide receivers and determine the likelihood that they break out in 2019. Using an arbitrary 25% increase over their best fantasy season to date using PPR scoring, I’m going to assess a percent chance that each player reaches their breakout score THIS season (suffice to say this is assuming the relative health of each player). Here is part two of this piece.
Welcome to the IDP Nation Podcast. We are your hosts Dan Cook and Darrell Winstead. We’ve got you covered from your LB1 to your taxi squad.
It has been a while since we’ve witnessed a fantasy running back as polarizing and talented as Joe Mixon. Last I can recall is Demarco Murray, maybe (feel free to offer suggestions, could be a fun discussion topic). Either way, the Joe Mixon takes are HOT. Some believe he can’t crack the top 10 again, and others project him as a candidate to finish the number one fantasy running back. Either one of those things can happen. I mean anything is possible, but what I want to analyze is the notion Mixon can’t be a top-five fantasy running back. This idea has been tossed around the twitter-verse and all over the fantasy community, but there is a strong case he will take the leap this year and elevate his play in 2019. The arrival of former LA Rams QB coach Zac Taylor and the West Coast offense is a major indicator Joe Mixon will be better utilized this year. Taylor played a major role in overseeing and constructing one of the most high powered offenses in the league last year. Sean McVay noted: “he was instrumental our in third-down game-planning.” Placing more emphasis on passing the ball certainly didn’t hurt Todd Gurley’s fantasy production last season. Gurley was the number three fantasy running back with 1,831 total yards and a remarkable 21 touchdowns in 14 games. The Bengals new offensive philosophy will have a dual effect, improving Mixon’s rushing and passing production. A breakdown of each aspect reveals how Joe Mixon and Zac Taylor can take his game to the next level. …………………….
Two statistical measurements are quickly growing in popularity among fantasy football analysts – Dominator Rating and Breakout Age. Essentially, these two variables tell us how productive a player was in college at their peak, and how old they were when that (hopefully) high level of production occurred. As I have become more comfortable working these numbers, I began to draw comparisons between established NFL players and incoming rookies with similar Dominator Ratings and Breakout Ages.According to PlayerProfiler, an incoming player with a Dominator Rating greater than 45% and a Breakout Age less than 19 years old is phenomenal. For the sake of this article, I am using a Dominator Rating of greater than 40% and a Breakout Age of younger than 20 years old for my comparative research on wide receivers. To filter out those rookies who produced immediately upon entering the league, I am using 600 yards receiving as a rookie and draft capital inside of Day 2 (Rounds 1-3) as my final cut off variable.Since 2010, there have been nine players who have met the cutoff of having a Dominator Rating of 40% or greater, a Breakout Age of less than 20 years old, who had at least 600 receiving yards their rookie year and were drafted in Rounds 1-3.
This year’s Scott Fish Bowl (SFB9) has been the talk of the fantasy town for the past few weeks. With drafts wrapped up, FFLinx reviews his lineup and goes over his strategies for this draft and other superflex and premium scoring leagues. Become a member to check out his team and see how his draft choices compare with yours. Would your team beat his?
One of my favorite buy-lows from last season got himself some new PAPER this offseason, signing a four year, $43m extension per Adam Shefter.Bengals are signing WR Tyler Boyd to a four-year, $43 million extension, league sources tell ESPN. Boyd now will be under contract through the 2023 season.— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 23, 2019His role as the Bengals WR2 for 2019, and WR1 in 2020-2023 is cemented in stone, right?Well, as you know if you read my piece on the Kyle Rudolph extension earlier this offseason, NFL contracts as initially reported can be quite deceiving. Let’s have a look at it now that we know the full details of the structure of the guaranteed money in the deal.The ContractPer Overthecap, here’s how it breaks down:- I have conditioned myself when looking at these tables to focus on the “cap number” column and to the right of it. I do this because it lays out quite nicely what it takes for a team to cut Boyd, should they so choose year by year. This is not an exact science by any means, but I start to look for when a team can save $6m towards their cap, this is when a player starts to be in jeopardy of becoming a cap casualty.
Welcome to the IDP Nation Podcast, the Factory Sports Network’s IDP-centric show. We are your hosts Dan Cook and Darrell Winstead. Are you ready for some tenacious IDP discussion? We’ve got you covered from your LB1 to your taxi squad. This is IDP Nation!
Welcome to Episode 85 of the @DynastyTradesHQ Podcast! “Trading Philosophies, …