Dynasty WR Buys: Mid-Range Part 2

I’m back to the dynasty side of writing with a series on veteran dynasty buys at the wide receiver position. I started off looking at three buy-high receivers. Then, I moved into the mid-range of dynasty value, beginning with a detailed dive into Tyler Boyd and Michael Gallup. As I referenced in that piece, I believe that the mid-range of dynasty WRs is a value goldmine with so many undervalued players in that group. Let’s jump into two more players that I think are excellent dynasty buys.

Jarvis Landry

For years, Jarvis Landry and players like him have been undervalued and underappreciated by dynasty owners. However, Landry’s stats and his history of fantasy success are undeniable.

Landry’s career started with the Miami Dolphins, who selected him with the 63rd overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. Even as a rookie, Landry was a crucial part of the offense, finishing second on the team in targets behind Mike Wallace. While Landry didn’t make a massive fantasy impact, he still managed to finish as a WR3.

In 2015, Landry broke out. He dominated the Dolphins’ receiving game, recording more than double the targets of any other player. Tight end Jordan Cameron finished second on the team with 70 targets, and no other wide receiver had more than 63. Landry’s 166 targets were sixth among NFL wide receivers, behind only players like Julio Jones and Antonio Brown. Landry only averaged 7.0 yards per target, but his sheer volume allowed him to be a fantasy force, especially in PPR scoring.

After 2015, the Dolphins fired head coach Joe Philbin and replaced him with Adam Gase. While Gase is famous for ruining all fantasy options he works with, Landry seemed to have an immunity to his poisonous effects. The Dolphins ran a more run-heavy offense, going from 588 passing attempts in 2015 to 477 in 2016. However, even inside that offense, Landry still flourished, leading the team in targets by a significant margin over DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills.

Landry also improved his efficiency in 2016, moving up to 8.7 yards per target. He had almost identical yardage on 35 fewer targets and 16 fewer receptions than 2015. The main narrative surrounding Landry at this point was that he was a PPR machine that doesn’t score touchdowns. Despite extremely high target totals, Landry had never scored more than five touchdowns in any season, which limited his ceiling.

Oddly enough, Landry broke out of his touchdown slump in 2017, despite having a down season. Gase’s poor offensive game planning started to rear its ugly head, as he decided to force the ball to Landry no matter what. While some of the blame might go to replacement quarterback Jay Cutler, I have no problem using Gase as a scapegoat for most things that go wrong in fantasy football. 

Landry had a whopping 161 targets, third among all receivers, but he finished with only 987 yards, which was only 15th for wide receivers. Landry averaged a horrid 8.8 yards per receptions and 6.1 yards per target. Landry might have been a fantasy star, but it didn’t translate for the Dolphins, who went 6-10. Landry also was saved by his nine touchdowns, a complete outlier compared to the rest of his career.

After 2017, the Dolphins and Gase decided they didn’t want Landry anymore, so they traded him to the Browns. Apparently, despite Landry’s immense talents, they couldn’t figure out how to use him correctly. Landry then signed a 5-year, $75.5 million contract with the Browns, tying him to the team through 2022. The Browns drafted quarterback Baker Mayfield with the first overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, pairing Landry with the best quarterback in his career.

In 2018, Landry dominated the Browns in targets, but he had a very different type of season than his previous career. His 149 targets were in line with what he’d seen before, but he only caught 81 of them for a meager 54.4% catch rate, by far the lowest of Landry’s career. He also performed poorly in yards/target with only 6.6, lower than tight end David Njoku and running back Duke Johnson on the same team. However, Landry improved to 12.0 yards/reception and still caught 81 passes. Despite some struggles finding chemistry with Mayfield, Landry finished as the WR18, a solid WR2.

Before 2019, the Browns traded for Landry’s college teammate, Odell Beckham Jr. For the first time since Landry’s rookie year, Landry was no longer the clear top target on the team, as Beckham was and remains one of the most talented receivers in the NFL. Even with Beckham on the roster, Landry led the Browns in targets in 2019, with 138 to Beckham’s 133. Landry found a new kind of success in 2019, with career highs in yards and yards/reception. 

Landry led the Browns in all receiving categories, despite the dumpster fire of the Freddie Kitchens-led offense. Landry decisively outplayed Beckham, although Beckham struggled with a sports hernia injury all season. Landry also found a connection with Mayfield, with the duo showing a massive step forward in their second year as teammates. Landry put up a WR1 season, finishing as the WR12.

Going into 2020, the Browns returned a similar set of offensive pieces to 2019, although with some minor changes. Most notably, they signed tight end Austin Hooper and right tackle Jack Conklin in free agency. They also replaced Kitchens with Kevin Stefanski as head coach. Considering that Kitchens is one of the worst coaches I’ve ever seen, Stefanski will be an upgrade. Stefanski also worked with a star receiving duo in Minnesota in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Landry should slide directly into the Thielen role, and therefore should be successful in 2020.

In dynasty leagues, Landry is off most dynasty owners’ radars both due to an off-season hip surgery and his age. However, he’s only 27 years old and has been fantasy-viable for his entire career. Also, Landry has never missed a game in six seasons, so his injury doesn’t concern me too much. Since Landry doesn’t have the same ceiling as other wide receivers, dynasty owners are ignoring him and selling him on the cheap. If you have a couple of 2021 second-round picks, send them to the Landry owner and grab a viable WR2.

Christian Kirk

Unlike Landry, Christian Kirk doesn’t have a track record of fantasy success. Kirk has yet truly to break out in his two seasons, but he has flashed considerable talent despite playing in a tough situation.

The Cardinals selected Kirk with the 47th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft out of Texas A&M. Coming into the NFL, Kirk profiled primarily as a slot receiver and as a long-term replacement for Larry Fitzgerald. In 2018, though, Kirk played mostly on the outside in the Cardinals’ base 3-wide offense, with Fitzgerald in the slot.

As we all remember, the Cardinals’ 2018 offense was one of the worst dumpster fires in recent memory. Starting quarterback Sam Bradford played only three games before the team turned to 2018 first-rounder Josh Rosen. Rosen performed horribly, completing an embarrassing 55.2% of his passes and throwing 11 touchdowns compared to 14 interceptions. Also, first-year head coach Steve Wilks was utterly unprepared to be an NFL head coach. Wilks seemed to have no clue how to run an offense, which affected all the team’s fantasy options.

Despite having every possible obstacle in his way, Kirk managed to have a somewhat successful season. He finished fourth on the Cardinals in targets behind Fitzgerald, David Johnson, and Ricky Seals-Jones, while putting up the second-most receiving yards on the team. Kirk also led the team in yards/target and yards/reception and was the only bright spot on this sad offense. Kirk’s biggest downside was that he broke his foot in Week 13 and missed the final four games.

After 2018, the entire Cardinals’ organization underwent a complete overhaul. The team fired Wilks after one season, replacing him with young sensation Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury decided to draft Kyler Murray with the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft and to ship Rosen off to Miami. Kirk fully recovered from his foot injury by training camp and would compete with Fitzgerald for the top receiver spot in the new-look offense. 

The Cardinals drafted three receivers in the 2019 NFL Draft, Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, and KeeSean Johnson. However, all three began the offseason behind Kirk and Fitzgerald on the depth chart. Kingsbury planned to implement a 4-wide offense, and I hoped that the Cardinals would use Kirk and Fitzgerald as dual slot receivers, with Butler and Isabella on the outside. 

However, none of that plan came to fruition. Butler missed the entire 2019 season with a finger injury, and Isabella never progressed onto the field. Due to a lack of good receivers, Kingsbury abandoned his offensive philosophy after only a few games. He returned to a standard 3-wide offense and incorporated a tight end into the base offense. 

Because of that scheme change, Kirk returned to playing outside like in 2019, opposite either Johnson or Damiere Byrd. Despite playing away from his natural position, Kirk had another solid season. He finished second on the team with 108 targets, just behind Fitzgerald with 109, even though Kirk played three fewer games. Kirk displayed chemistry with Murray, as he averaged more fantasy PPG than Fitzgerald. Kirk finished 31st in PPG among wide receivers, ahead of notable players like Odell Beckham Jr., D.K. Metcalf, and Deebo Samuel.

When the 2019 season closed, Kirk’s future outlook was extremely bright. He played well in his first two seasons and should improve in his second year playing with Murray. However, everything since that moment has only caused Kirk’s value to decline. First, Fitzgerald decided to return for another season in 2020. That decision means that Kirk will once again play as an outside receiver in 2020. At this point, I think we have to accept that Kirk will forever play on the outside, whether he would be better in the slot or not.

Then, the Cardinals decided to trade for star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Suddenly, Kirk lost his place as the top target on the team, as Hopkins is a target machine. Hopkins has garnered 150 or more targets in every season since 2015. While I’m not sure Hopkins will reach that particular mark in the Cardinals’ offense, there is zero doubt that Hopkins will lead the team in targets.

With all of that said, fading Kirk because of the Hopkins trade would be a huge mistake. If you read my previous article, I discussed this concept when examining Michael Gallup. Fading talented players because other talented players joined the same roster is the biggest mistake dynasty owners make. Kirk has a top quarterback in Murray, and I believe that Kirk is an incredibly talented receiver. His price will never be lower than it is now, making it a great time to buy. Strike now and give up a 2021 2nd or even two for Kirk. Do not miss out on this opportunity because I promise you’ll regret it.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.