Dynasty WR Buys: Mid-Range

I’m back to the dynasty side of writing with a brand-new series on the veteran dynasty buys at the wide receiver position. In part 1 of this series, I looked at three buy-high receivers. Now, I want to get into some mid-range players. I want to start by saying that I love the value in this area of dynasty ADP. I might have to do two or three parts in this middle range since I think so many WRs in that value group are strong buys. But for now, let’s start with these two players.

Tyler Boyd

For most of the past year, Boyd has been one of my favorite dynasty buys. Despite his production in 2018 and 2019, nobody seems to want Boyd. Even now that he has a solid quarterback in Joe Burrow, dynasty owners still aren’t treating Boyd as the fantasy asset they should. But before getting into that, let’s look at Boyd’s career snapshot.

The Bengals drafted Boyd with the 55th overall pick in the second round of the 2016 NFL Draft. In his rookie year, Boyd flashed as the number three receiver behind veterans A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell. Boyd played mostly from the slot and complemented the existing pair of outside receivers. While he wasn’t fantasy relevant, he showed enough as a rookie to provide considerable dynasty optimism going into 2017.

Unfortunately for Boyd, he took a significant step back in 2017. He missed six games with an MCL injury, which slowed his development. While Boyd recovered from his injury, the Bengals moved into more dual tight end sets with Tyler Kroft and C.J. Uzomah. Also, they deployed both running backs Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard together on the field in two-back sets. 

However, by the end of 2017, Boyd returned to a starting role, taking 58 and 76% of the snaps in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively. He caught five passes in both games while he had failed to catch more than two receptions in any previous game all season. Boyd finished 2017 with a poor receiving line, which led many dynasty owners to quit on him. I remember dropping Boyd during the 2018 offseason, a huge mistake that I still regret even now.

After 2018, the Bengals moved on from LaFell, intending to replace him on the outside with 2017 first-round pick John Ross. Once again, Boyd was the slot receiver in the offense, although nobody expected him to be more than the third option on a mediocre team. Boyd blew those expectations out of the water, leading the Bengals in all receiving categories in 2018. 

While Green missed time with injuries, Boyd played well both with and without Green on the field. In Weeks 1-8, Boyd averaged 17.7 PPR points playing alongside Green, 13th among wide receivers. In comparison, Boyd played six games without Green in Weeks 10-15, where he averaged only 13.3 fantasy points per game. Even though he wasn’t as good in fantasy without Green, he was 23rd among receivers during that period, inside WR2 territory. He was a reliable fantasy asset for all of 2018 and was a significant success for those dynasty owners that didn’t prematurely drop Boyd like I foolishly did.

Going into 2019, the Bengals didn’t add any significant receiving weapons, returning mostly the same offense. They also gave Boyd a contract extension for four years and $43 million. Green missed the entire season with an ankle injury, so Boyd once again served as the de facto number one receiver, despite playing from the slot. He led the team in all receiving categories, with an ugly rotation of John Ross, Auden Tate, and Alex Erickson playing behind him in the offense. Also, the Bengals decided to make an ill-guided experiment using Ryan Finley at quarterback for three games.

Even with all those issues for the Bengals, Boyd boosted his 2018 numbers. He had more targets, more receptions, and more yards, although he did decline in touchdowns. Boyd slightly regressed in fantasy points per game, but he did remain healthy for all 16 games, which is a nice plus. Overall, we’ve seen Boyd succeed with and without Green on the field and despite the Bengals’ horrific alternative weapons and mediocre at best offense.

The Bengals have moved on from Andy Dalton and will have number one overall Joe Burrow as their starting quarterback. They used the franchise tag on Green and drafted big, outside wide receiver Tee Higgins in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Hopefully, Green returns to form, and either Higgins or Ross can fill the other outside spot across from Green. 

With better outside weapons, Boyd will continue to handle the slot, which Burrow used very well in 2019 at LSU. Justin Jefferson profiles very similarly to Boyd, as a big slot weapon. Jefferson had 111 receptions for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns for Burrow in 2019. I’m not saying that Boyd will get those types of numbers in an NFL setting, but it’s certainly a positive indicator for Boyd.

Even though Boyd has so many signs pointing in the right direction, dynasty owners still seem sour on him. Some are afraid that Green’s return will affect Boyd’s targets. I’ve dispelled that notion, as Boyd was better in 2018 with Green on the field but succeeded without Green in 2019. I take the side that Green will help Boyd, as a better offense means more touchdown opportunity for everyone. 

I also believe that, in general, dynasty players can’t get over players that failed or had roadblocks early on in their career. We all want to see players break out immediately and show consistent upward progression. However, that isn’t realistic and doesn’t happen for every successful NFL player. If you insist on only rostering a specific type of player, you’re going to miss out on value. 

Therefore, I would suggest buying Boyd in existing leagues or drafting him in startups. He’s my 51st overall player in my dynasty rankings and my WR26. He’ll turn 26 years old in November, so he’s just entering the prime of his career. I’d give up a 2021 1st in 1 QB leagues to acquire Boyd, which I think most Boyd owners would accept. Don’t wait for Boyd to hit with Burrow since you’ll never acquire him then. Act now while you still can.

Michael Gallup

Alright, let’s put the dynasty theory up top here. The worst mistake you can make as a dynasty owner is moving on from a productive player because of another potentially productive player joining the same offense. You’ll end up selling your player at a low price while ignoring the simple fact that adding talents to an offense doesn’t eat targets from the existing players. Targets don’t work that way. Individual players earn targets based on their abilities. With that said, here’s Gallup’s career thus far.

The Cowboys selected Gallup with the 81st overall pick in the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft. At the time, the Cowboys had a total lack of receiving weapons. Star tight end Jason Witten had just retired, and the Cowboys had only Allen Hurns and Cole Beasley as experienced wide receivers. Despite the lack of competition, Gallup still got off to a slow start. In Weeks 1-5, he totaled only six receptions for 82 yards in limited playing time.

However, in Week 6, the Cowboys decided to promote Gallup to a starting outside receiver, complementing Hurns with Beasley in the slot. While Gallup still didn’t produce much for fantasy, he continued to play as a starter, even after the Cowboys traded for Amari Cooper. Throughout the rest of the season, Gallup had 27 receptions on 53 targets for 425 yards and two touchdowns and was the WR57. For a third-round rookie, I think most dynasty owners were pretty satisfied with Gallup’s performance, although some were scared off by the acquisition of Cooper.

Going into 2019, the Cowboys made significant changes to their offensive weapons. They got rid of most of their depth options like Hurns and allowed Beasley to walk in free agency. Witten rejoined the team out of retirement, and the Cowboys also signed Randall Cobb to a 1-year, $5 million deal. Unlike the prior season, the Cowboys offense was clear at the start: Witten as the receiving tight end, Gallup and Cooper as outside receivers, and Cobb as the slot receiver. Most expected Cooper to succeed, but few expected much from the other weapons. Star running back Ezekiel Elliott was a workhorse back, and Prescott had not previously supported multiple fantasy receivers.

The Cowboys demolished all of those expectations, though. Cooper finished as the WR10, Gallup as the WR22, Cobb as the WR42, and Witten as the TE11. Even with the excellent production from the passing game, Elliott also succeeded, finishing as the RB3. Gallup’s rise was the most notable story, as he took a massive leap from his 2018 numbers. He doubled his receptions and more than doubled his yardage total, despite playing two fewer games. Gallup and Cooper only differed in fantasy PPG by 0.2 points, so there was little separating the two outside receivers. Considering that Gallup only had third-round draft capital and competed with stars on a loaded offense, his 2019 season is extremely impressive in retrospect.

Now, it’s time for the elephant in the room. The Cowboys drafted stud prospect CeeDee Lamb in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. I broke down Lamb as a pre-draft prospect, and I want to emphasize what I said then: Lamb is a future stud. He was my favorite receiver prospect in the draft for dynasty, and I believe he has all the tools to be a number one receiver in the NFL. 

However, in that same piece, I also said that Lamb would likely only be fantasy relevant in Year 1 by necessity, not by design. If Lamb went to a barren depth chart with no significant competition, that team would turn to him as a rookie to be their top receiver, similar to what the Ravens did in 2019 with Marquise Brown. Unfortunately for Lamb, he finds himself in a very different situation, behind two receivers who had 1,100-yard seasons in 2019.

Long-term, there is no way that the Cowboys will retain all three of these receivers. They have an out in Cooper’s contract after 2021, and Gallup is a free agent after 2021. Gallup is only 24 years old and has proven his immense talent. I expect him to produce in 2020 ahead of Lamb as Lamb acclimates to the NFL. Eventually, Gallup will either outlast Cooper on the Cowboys, sign elsewhere, or continue to be part of a top duo with Cooper if Lamb busts. 

Do not make the terrible mistake of giving up on a 24-year-old receiver with a strong quarterback in Dak Prescott because of a draft pick. If your league mates make that mistake, you must pounce and make every effort to acquire Gallup. He has fallen over two rounds in dynasty ADP, which is exceptionally short-sighted. I would still pay a 2021 1st to acquire Gallup, but I don’t think he would cost that much. If you can pay two 2021 2nds or a similar package and buy Gallup, you will thank me later on. This is a tremendous buying opportunity that you can’t miss.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.