Hello and welcome to another edition of “Dynasty What If?” In this series, @ChrisMiles1017 and I explore expectations for different players in the upcoming 2023 NFL season. These will include a projected ceiling outcome and a potential floor outcome. After that, we will discuss what we think is most likely. The idea is to lay out and consider what is possible and compare that to what is probable. In addition, we will relay potential effects for every scenario on the player’s dynasty value. Now, let’s dive into our next subject: Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Cooper Kupp Clone
- Chris’s ceiling case
For Amon-Ra (ARSB), we just need to look at last season. He scored 16.7 PPG, but if you adjust that and remove the games in which he did not reach a 50% snap share due to injury, he scored 18.6 PPG, which is easily a low-end WR1. In 38% of his games played, ARSB was a WR1 in fantasy, and he only had 10 points or less in 8% of his games. So we have a young WR already showing elite upside with an elite floor. He also boasted a 28% target share combined with a 29% target rate (targets divided by routes run). We are looking at a player that has the right numbers and situation to eclipse 1,400 yards and 10 TDs in 2023. The Lions removed a huge target competitor in T.J. Hockenson, replaced him with a rookie RB, and added suspended and injured Jameson Williams. ARSB is competing with the likes of Josh Reynolds, Marvin Jones, and Denzel Mims for targets. Another point for liking ARSB this year is that the team is actively trying to bring up his average depth of target. I could see that realized with Gibbs working in the short and intermediate area while St.Brown can work all three levels.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Just Another Slot WR
- Paul’s floor case
It is admittedly difficult to poke holes in a player who has been so good to start his career, but I will try. Based on what we have seen, I completely agree the floor is quite high. However, Amon-Ra is currently being drafted as the WR6 in Dynasty with an ADP in the mid-second round. The downside case for Amon-Ra comes into play if Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams both hit. At that point, ARSB could lose what makes him so good: elite volume. This Lions team drafted both of these players quite high in the draft, so it is fair to assume they plan on getting them involved as soon as possible. This could bring Amon-Ra down to the 25% target share range, which is still very good, but no longer elite. And if Jameson does hit, he will likely capture a lot of the intermediate and deep work, leaving ARSB with little room to grow in his role. This combination spells WR2 finishes for perpetuity. There is nothing wrong with those results, but at his current cost, they would be disappointing.
Conclusion: What’s probable?
We think that ARSB is for real and that we should believe what has been shown to us on the NFL football field. Amon-Ra should continue to see about a 28% target share, if not more, and his touchdowns should reasonably increase as well. The Lions were top three in rushing TDs in 2022, so if we can see this shift back to the norm, Amon Ra will be a big benefactor. St. Brown remains a high-floor player that also carries an elite weekly upside. He is young and in a great situation. We believe he is a good pick at ADP and a good player to target in trades if you have some extra value and want to bunker down your WR corps.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find Chris and me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017 and @paul_dff. Shoot me a DM; they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy, where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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