Tale of the Tape is a series where I evaluate two players closely regarded by the Mock Draft community based on a series of metrics that have proven to be predictive of future Dynasty success. After the evaluation, a winner is chosen between the two of whom you should be targeting in your Dynasty rookie drafts when both are on the board, and it is your pick.
This research is a precursor to my annual WR1 rankings, which forecast the future success of incoming rookie wide receiver prospects by incorporating 12 advanced metrics into a model. Each metric is weighted differently within the model and, when combined, gives each player a single score, the WR1 rating. To see last year’s WR1 rankings, click here. This year’s pre-draft WR1 model rankings will be published in April, so stay tuned!
This is the fourth article in this series. The prior three can be viewed here. The two players I will be evaluating in this article are Xavier Worthy and Devontez Walker. This is simply an unbiased interpretation of analytics that has proven to successfully predict future Dynasty stars and busts. The metrics are not cherry-picked. The same ones have been used for years to evaluate all prospects.
NFL mock draft database currently has both Xavier Worthy and Devontez Walker as projected second-round NFL draft selections.
Tale of the Tape
| Xavier Worthy | Devontez Walker | |||
| Mock Draft Round Proj. | 2 | 2 | ||
| Early Declare | Yes | = | Yes | = |
| Breakout Year | 1 | + | 2 | |
| Weighted dominator BS | 37.3% | + | 30.5% | |
| RYPTPAPG* BS | 2.84 | + | 2.39 | |
| YPRR BS | 2.61 | = | 2.62 | = |
| PFF Receiving Grade LS | 74 | + | 68.3 | |
| Lance Zierlein Film Grade | 6.12 | 6.16 | + | |
| Contested Target Rate LS | 17.7% | + | 25.8% | |
| Career Fantasy Points per Game | 16.5 | + | 14.4 |
Early Declare
Eleven of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 rating scores were early declares. Only DeVonta Smith cracked this tier while playing through his senior season. 22 of the top 24 were also early declared. The players who declare early have received input from the NFL that they will be drafted early enough to warrant foregoing their senior season.
As such, this is one of the more influential inputs into the WR1 model.
Xavier Worthy and Devontez Walker are both early declares. This is a good sign for both players’ future prospects, but we need to look at the whole picture for the rest of the evaluation.
Breakout Year
A breakout year is defined as the year when the prospect eclipses a 20% team share of the receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
Like the early declare metric, breakout year also had 11 of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 score with a first or second-year breakout. The only exception again is DeVonta Smith. It was only Smith’s immense production during his senior year that had him break the top-12 total WR1 score. Smith is the perfect measure of why this model is so accurate. Many analytic-based models did not have Smith as a top prospect because he failed several important metrics. However, the WR1 rating was one of the few that rated him (and Chris Olave) highly.
Typically, you will see a prospect scrape by the 20% breakout threshold in their first year, overcoming that threshold.
Worthy is one of only two players (Jacob Cowing) in this draft class to break out as a freshman. Worthy had a very impressive 981 yards as a freshman, catching passes from Casey Thompson. This was more than double the next-closest Longhorn in receiving yards.
Walker broke out as a sophomore. That is solid, albeit at a lower level of competition at Kent St.
Worthy edges into the lead in this analytical faceoff vs. Walker.
*Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt Per Game (RYPTPAPG). Best Season
10 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects and 21 of the top-24 WR1 prospects had a best season RYPTPAPG above 3.0.
Worthy clears Walker easily in this key predictive metric, 2.84 vs 2.39. Worthy led his team in receiving yards each of his three years at Texas despite some stiff competition in likely second-round picks Adonai Mitchell and Ja’ Tavion Sanders.
In the head-to-head analytical battle, Worthy now goes up two in the plus column over Walker.
Weighted Dominator – Best Season
The weighted dominator metric is the player’s share of their team’s touchdowns and receiving yards weighted 80% receiving yards and 20% touchdowns. 11 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects had a dominator above 30%.
Worthy had a very impressive weighted dominator performance. His 37.3% was directly behind Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. He was 1 of only five players to clear a 35% weighted dominator.
Walker’s 2.39 mark was mediocre among his draft-class peers.
Worthy earns another mark in the plus column, going up three in this head-to-head analytical battle vs. Devontez Walker.
Contested Target Rate – Last Season
This is a new input into the WR1 model this year, as it has proven to be a predictive metric to identify wide receiver busts.
*Click image to view full tweet*
The contested target rate is the number of contested targets divided by a player’s total targets. This is, in essence, a way to measure how much separation a prospect is getting. The logic behind this being predictive of busts is that these players can bully their way to production in college. But in the NFL, with bigger, stronger, faster players, the contested catch prowess doesn’t hold up near as well as elite separators.
Ideally, you want to see this rate under 20%.
This metric is a major red flag for Walker. His 25.8% contested target rate is very high and shows he was not getting easy separation at the collegiate level. If he can’t do it at the collegiate level, he will surely struggle in the NFL.
Worthy’s 17.7 mark was solid, yet not elite.
Worthy has blown this head-to-head battle wide open, dominating the competition with his peer Walker, who is projected to be taken in the same round of the NFL draft.
Yards Per Route Run – Best Season
Yards per route run is one of the most predictive metrics for future Fantasy success. As such, it is weighted more significantly in the WR1 model formula than other metrics. 11 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects had the best season YPRR above 3.0. This was one of the only metrics Puka Nacua shone in vs. his peers last year.
This metric was a virtual dead heat, with Walker slightly edging out Worthy at 2.62 vs 2.61. A single hundredth of a point in this metric is inconsequential. This was a decent performance for both of these prospects, ranking in the mid-tier of this draft class.
Film Grades: PFF Receiving Grade – Last Season and Lance Zierlein
It is critical for any analytical model to also incorporate a quantifiable film grade.
PFF has their graders charting every game of the NFL season. They then give these players grades based on their designated criteria. 11 of the top 12 players in the WR1 model had a PFF receiving grade above 85.0.
The film community isn’t very high on either of these two prospects. PFF graded Walker the worst among his peer draft-eligible prospects with a paltry 68.3. Worthy fared better with a 74 but was still outside of the top 10 players.
Zierlein was slightly higher on Walker than he was on Worthy at 6.16 vs 6.12.
As the two graders had differing views, we will call this film grade a tie. Worthy maintains a healthy overall four-point lead.
Career Fantasy Points Per Game
This metric measures the prospect’s 1 point per reception, 1 point per 10 yards receiving fantasy scoring on a points-per-game basis in their college career. This is ultimately the exact metric you want to be mirrored for their NFL Careers.
Nine of the top twelve prospects in the WR1 model all-time had a PPR PPG above 17.0.
Both Worthy and Walker performed well in the metric that, ultimately, we want them both to succeed in at the NFL level. Worthy was fourth overall in this loaded wide receiver class in career fantasy points per game with 16.2. Walker came in with a stellar 14.4, good for eighth overall in the class.
It is important to note that Walker piled up these points at a lower level of competition for two years playing for Kent St. before transferring to North Carolina.
Both players performed well, but once again, it was Xavier Worthy coming out on top.
Summary
Analytically speaking, this was not a close contest. Xavier Worthy’s prospect profile easily clears Devontez Walker in virtually every predictive metric.
From a film standpoint, neither of the two players graded in the upper echelon of this draft class. The viewpoints were split from the film graders used for this analysis.
Both Worthy and Walker are currently mocked to go in the second round of the NFL draft. When it comes to the actual NFL draft, I would be very surprised if Walker goes in the second. For me, he grades as more of a fourth-round prospect. Worthy, on the other hand, is “Worthy” of his current second-round projection.
For Dynasty rookie drafts, I would steer clear of Walker and let your league mates gamble on him. For Worthy, you should be in if he is available in the second.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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