Early Declare Status: Why Should We Care?

Making decisions in your Dynasty Rookie Drafts can be incredibly tough. Especially when you are forced to choose between two players you like or even two players you don’t know much about. There are a few factors that can sometimes help break the tie and make this decision much easier. One of them is a player’s early declare status, and this is mainly for wide receivers. But what is early declare status and how can it help us? Let’s find out below. 

What is an Early Declare?

An early declare is any player that declares to enter the NFL draft before their senior, or fourth, season of college football. Usually, these are players that have completed three football seasons or have finished their junior year. Let us look at 2021 rookie Ja’Marr Chase as an example. He only completed two years of football, but at the same time finished his junior year of college before entering the NFL draft early. This makes him an early declare.

But, what is so special about declaring for the NFL draft early? How can this help us make decisions in our rookie drafts? 

Well, being an early declare is a good thing. It typically means you were more productive at a younger age and this is a good indicator of potential NFL success. If you were able to be good at a young age in college it stands to reason you will have an easier transition to the NFL and have a higher success rate there. What does this mean for fantasy football? Let’s look at the numbers.

Why does being an Early Declare matter?

I have amassed a database of rookie profiles that include all drafted and some undrafted wide receivers since 2013. With this database, I have grouped both the players who had an early declare status and those who did not. I chose to cut off my sample after round three because historically those hit rates are already sub-par. We can cover that in another article.

For now, let’s focus on the chart. I first took all the wide receivers that were drafted in the first three rounds but who were also non-early declare players. Doing this led me to find 40 of these players. I am calling any player who has scored 10 or more PPR points per game (ppg) over their career a hit and any player who missed that mark a miss. In dynasty, we want sustained production and ppg over a career seemed to be the fairest way to evaluate that.

Of these first 40 players, only 13 have become hits in fantasy football, with 24 being misses and 3 being undecided due to so few games played. So, I removed the three undecided and divided the hits and misses each by 37 to achieve the rates of success, or hit rates. On average, only 35% of players drafted in rounds one through three end up being productive players in the NFL, while 65% become bench fodder.

Now, when we look at the early declares we see a much different story. 68% of the early declares hit and become players with weekly startable value, while only 32% miss. We can already see a drastic difference in hit rate when comparing these sets of players. So in your draft, it seems it would be very advantageous to choose the wide receiver who is an early declare over a wide receiver who isn’t. This factor alone doubles your chances of finding a successful player.

Now, when looking at just first-round players the story stays the same but the details change. For non-early declares who were selected in the first round I have eight valuable instances, four players hit and four did not. This gives us a 50/50 shot at the surface. However, this is a very small sample. Let’s say Devonta Smith did not average 10+ ppg and was not a hit. That would suddenly shift the data to 62.5% of players in that group miss and only 37.5% hit.

Now with the first-round early declares we have great results, 24 instances with 17 hits and a 74% success rate. If you are choosing between two first-round wide receivers and one is an early declare while the other is not I think the choice is simple. Take the 75% chance and go with the early declare.

Conclusion

Early declare’s are any player who entered the NFL draft before their senior or fourth college season. This status, when paired with draft capital, can double the chance at which any given player succeeds in the NFL. When comparing two similar players the choice must lean towards the early declare wide receiver. Early declare status is not everything, but especially when paired with draft capital, it is a fantastic tool. Remember this in your rookie drafts and your hit rates will increase.

Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions, you can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, #Rankings, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!

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