Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight.

Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.

This will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust to the market to avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of over-reaction.

NOTABLE MARKET CHANGES

RISER

Gabriel Davis WR (BUF)

Positional Rank: WR33 > WR48

Overall Rank: 91 > 127

Gabriel Davis Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut

The focus of this commentary will always be to analyze the psychology surrounding shifts in dynasty market consensus. Truthfully, it’s not hard to understand why the community is hot for Gabe Davis this week. A massive four-touchdown performance in the AFC Divisional round has propelled Davis’ ascent up the value boards.

Investing in single-game outliers in expectation of a continuation of success offers as much risk as it does reward. At Davis’ current market value, the cost of acquisition far outweighs the potential range of outcomes.

Fellow DFF author Jared Hines highlighted Davis’ career growth from 4th-round prospect to household NFL name for his recent article entitled: Gabriel Davis: Gas or Brakes?  Jared references Chris Miles’ analytical thresholds, putting Davis on a similar career trajectory and range of outcomes as his teammate Stefon Diggs. Unfortunately for hopeful managers, players such as Rashard Higgins and Hakeem Butler also broke those thresholds.

This is not an indictment of Davis’ talent, merely an assertion of his ridiculous rising cost in the dynasty market. If you roster Davis, now is the time to capitalize on a larcenous deal.

Value Adjacent Players (OVR):

Damien Harris RB (NE)

Kirk Cousins QB (MIN)

Ezekiel Elliott RB (DAL)

Dallas Goedert TE (PHI)

Aaron Jones RB (GB)

Value Adjacent WR:

Marquise Brown (BAL)

Darnell Mooney (CHI)

Chase Claypool (PIT)

Amari Cooper (DAL)

Michael Thomas (NO)

FALLER

Stefon Diggs WR (BUF)

Positional Rank: WR15 > WR 12

Overall Rank 43 > 33

Stefon Diggs Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut

Welcome to the Butterfly Effect. Stefon Diggs’ slight decline in market value over the last week is an excellent example of chaos theory. As managers overreacted in the market to Davis’ show-stopping performance last Sunday, Diggs saw his trade stock take a hit.

Diggs is currently 28-years old, and ageists have begun to force a baseless narrative that the streaking Davis is the next in line to supplant the veteran star as the Bills’ number one receiving option. However, when looking back on the 2021 season, that narrative couldn’t be further from the truth. 

Despite having a receiving line of 103 REC/164 TGT/1225 REC YDS/10 TD in 2021, Diggs has seen his value drop. He led the Bills with a 26.4% target share, ranked 13th amongst eligible receivers. Davis, on the other hand, earned a 10.9% target share, ranked 90th. 

We know touchdowns are not predictable from year to year, but targets are. Santiago Casanova discovered, on average, when targets and target shares become “sticky” or predictable from a year to year basis. Managers can expect a player’s career target averages to stick around 40 career games played (if games are consecutively played). With a career target share of 10.9% through two seasons, Davis will need a monumental leap in usage in his third year if we expect to see reliable production.

Diggs is an established, proven option at the top of his game. As long as he is wearing a Bills uniform, Davis will be the secondary option at best.

Value Adjacent Players (OVR):

Alvin Kamara RB (NO)

2022 Early 1st Round Draft Pick

Matthew Stafford QB (LAR)

Jalen Hurts QB (PHI)

George Kittle TE (SF)

Value Adjacent WR:

Elijah Moore (NYJ)

Terry McLaurin (WAS)

D.J. Moore (CAR)

Chris Godwin (TB)

DeVonta Smith (PHI)

Managing a dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible, so when you move all-in, the deck is stacked in your favor.

“We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

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