Bonjour, Mesdames et Messieurs! There’s a lot of good content regarding the NFL Draft, topics like mock drafts, evaluations, and rankings. Most content creators and analysts rank players based on fantasy value or overall skill. The Keen Observer Posse (KOP) rankings are about trust.
I’ve either played or coached football for over 20 years, and my experience enters how I evaluate NFL Draft prospects. What can I trust him to do? In general, the number one thing a coach values the most in a person/player is trust. It isn’t athleticism or size.
The KOP rankings will help you understand why a person struggles in the NFL or why a particular player isn’t receiving more playing time. It will allow you to move off a specific player earlier than most people in the Dynasty Fantasy Football space. For example, while most managers hoped O.J. Howard would produce as a TE1 in his sophomore or third season; you have already traded him away.
The rankings will allow you to “Live in the Future.” You will move off of players like Trey Lance. Understand why a person drafted last will start over a first-round draft pick. Coaches love trust and rarely tolerate players that struggle.
How do we explain trust and distrust in the NFL? In the NFL, trust means equates to an individual’s skillset that can help a team win if asked to do it consistently. Distrust equates to specific attributes that will cause an NFL to lose a game if the person is forced to do it consistently. Trust = You can win. Distrust = Will causes us to lose.
KOP will provide the WR rankings, then break down what a coach can trust the person to do and what you can’t trust them to do. Let’s get started.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)
Trust
- Everything.
Distrust
- N/A.
Interesting
- Since 2021, 55.1% of Mr. Smith-Njigba’s targets against single coverage were deemed open, which ranked first among 2023 NFL Draft WR prospects.
Zay Flowers (Boston College)
Trust
- Yards After Catch (YAC).
- Straight-line speed.
- Lateral quickness.
- Upper and Lower body flexibility.
- Catching ability.
- Elusiveness.
- Start and stop explosion.
- Creating separation from every route.
- Decision making.
- Scramble drill.
- Blocking.
- Understanding nuance to route running.
- Routes against off-man coverage.
- Routes against zone coverage.
- Adjusting to the pass.
- Contested catches.
Distrust
- Playing through contact.
- Getting off press-man coverage.
- Strength/Power.
- High point the ball.
Interesting
- In 2022, Zay Flowers’s PFF receiving grade against man coverage was 59.4, ranking 99th among 2023 Draft eligible WRs.
Josh Downs (North Carolina)
Trust
- YAC.
- Lateral quickness.
- Body Control.
- Adjusting to the pass.
- Creating separation from every route.
- Catching ability.
- Start and stop explosion.
- Strength.
- Lower and upper body flexibility.
- Get off press man coverage.
- Routes against off-man coverage.
- Routes against zone coverage.
- Scramble drill.
- Playing through contact.
- Understanding nuance to route running.
- Contested catches.
Distrust
- Evading defenders.
- Breaking tackles.
- Power.
Interesting
- Last season, Mr. Downs’ PFF receiving grade against man coverage was ranked second among all FBS WRs.
Nathaniel Dell (Houston)
Trust
- Routes against man coverage.
- Routes against press-man coverage.
- Routes against zone coverage.
- Evading contact while running routes.
- Moving to the right YAC.
- Elusive when moving to his right.
- Start and stop explosion.
- Body Control.
- Upper and lower body flexibility.
- Scramble drill.
- Creating separation from every route.
Distrust
- Contested catches.
- High pointing passes.
- Blocking.
- Nuance route running.
- Breaking tackles.
- Strength and power.
Interesting
- Mr. Dell earned the highest receiving grade from practice during Senior Bowl week. His 90.4 grade was almost 13 points higher than the next-highest receiver at the Senior Bowl.
Kayshon Boutte (LSU)
Trust
- Best Dig route runner.
- Running against press-man coverage.
- Playing through contact.
- YAC.
- Elusiveness.
- Body Control.
- Great timing and setup on vertical routes.
- Nuanced route runner.
- Strength.
- Lateral movement.
- Burst.
- Catching with hands.
- Agility.
- Breaking tackles.
- Scramble drill.
Distrust
- Focus.
- High-pointing the ball.
Interesting
- As a true freshman, Mr. Boutte set an SEC single-game record with 308 receiving yards against Ole Miss and had three touchdowns.
Jonathan Mingo (Ole Miss)
Trust
- YAC straight-line speed.
- Breaking tackles.
- Body Control.
- Burst.
- Pass catching.
- Strength and Power.
- Playing against press-man coverage.
- Running against zone coverage.
- Running against off-man coverage.
- Blocking.
- Playing through contact.
- Contested catches.
- Adjusting to the pass.
Distrust
- High-pointing the ball.
- Upper body flexibility.
- Lower body flexibility.
- Creating significant separation.
Interesting
Jordan Addison (USC)
Trust
- Manufactured routes. (screens, jet sweeps, shallow crosses, etc.)
- Long developing routes.
- Whip route.
- Straight-line YAC.
- Dig route against zone.
- Catching with hands.
- Scramble drill.
- Reading coverages.
Distrust
- Vertical routes.
- Slant route versus man coverage.
- Elusiveness.
- Blocking.
- Contested catches.
Interesting
- Since 2021, Mr. Addison ranked second in PFF’s receiving grade against zone coverage among NFL Draft WR prospects.
A.T. Perry (Wake Forest)
Trust
- Straight-line YAC.
- Steady acceleration.
- Instant stop ability.
- Vertical routes.
- Adjusting to passes.
- Body Control.
- Strength.
- Play through contact.
- Running versus press-man coverage.
- Running against off-man coverage.
- Routes against zone coverage.
- Upper and lower body flexibility.
Distrust
- Emotional discipline.
- Explosion. (instant start)
- High point.
- Elusiveness.
- Consistent hands.
- Blocking.
Interesting
- Mr. Perry finished as the highest-graded receiver during East/West Shrine Bowl practices.
Michael Wilson (Stanford)
Trust
- Explosion off the line of the scrimmage.
- Straight-line speed YAC.
- High point the ball.
- Body Control.
- Slant route.
- Strength.
- Playing through contact.
- Contested catches.
- Adjusting to the pass.
Distrust
- Consistent hands.
- Emotional discipline.
- Restarting movement.
- Staying healthy.
Interesting
- Mr. Wilson played only 14 games over the previous three seasons.
Marvin Mims (Oklahoma)
Trust
- Running movement routes. (shallow crossers, verticals, posts, overs)
- Straight-line acceleration.
- Straight line speed.
- YAC straight line mover.
- Body Control.
- Pass catching.
- Upper and lower body flexibility.
- Blocking.
- Contested catches.
- Running against zone coverages.
Distrust
- Routes requiring the receiver to stop or sink hips.
- Judging the ball on the deep pass.
- High-pointing the ball.
- Scramble drill.
- Reading defenses.
- Nuance of route running.
- Start and stop quickness.
- Lateral movement.
- YAC moving laterally.
- Playing through contact.
- Running against press-man coverage.
- Strength and power.
- Elusiveness.
Interesting
- Since 2021, Mr. Mims led all NFL Draft WR prospects with an Average Depth of Target (ADoT) at 17.18 yards per target.
C.J. Johnson (East Carolina)
Trust
- Back-shoulder throws.
- Strength and power.
- Setting up DBs on fade routes.
- Playing through contact.
- Play every WR position. (slot and boundary)
- Beating press-man coverage.
- Breaking tackles.
- Elusiveness.
- Functional straight-line YAC.
- Late acceleration.
- Body Control.
- Hands.
- Ability to stop quickly.
Distrust
- Maturity.
- Gaining clear separation.
- Burst.
- High point.
Interesting
- Last season, Mr. Johnson’s NFL Passer Rating when targeted was 139.0, which ranked eighth among 2023 NFL Draft WR prospects.
Jayden Reed (Michigan State)
Trust
- Elusiveness YAC.
- Burst.
- Boundary WR.
- Adjusting to underthrown passes.
- In-breaking routes against zone and man.
- Contested catches.
Distrust
- Keeping feet in bounds.
- Consistent hand placement.
- Awareness as Slot WR.
- Running against press-man coverage.
- Out-breaking routes against man coverage.
Interesting
- Despite Mr. Reed’s size, he had a 64.7% Contested Catch Rate last season, ahead of players like Quentin Johnston, Marvin Mims, and Zay Flowers.
Quentin Johnston (TCU)
Trust
- Run Pass Option (RPO) scheme.
- Straight-line & Burst YAC.
- Boundary position.
- Movement routes. (shallow crossers, verticals, posts, overs)
- Burst.
- Acceleration.
- Running against zone coverage.
- Running against off-man coverage.
Distrust
- Contested Catches.
- High-point passes.
- Lateral movement YAC.
- Slot position.
- Routes forced to sink your hips.
- Hands.
- Playing through contact.
- Running against press-man coverage.
- Strength and power.
- Upper body flexibility.
- Scramble drill.
- Blocking.
Interesting
- Mr. Johnston averaged 3.05 yards per route run, ranking fifth among NFL Draft-eligible WRs.
Tyler Scott (Cincinnati)
Trust
- Elite straight-line speed YAC.
- Acceleration.
- Vertical routes.
- Quickness out of breaks.
- Restarting quickly after stopping.
- Running routes against off-man coverage.
- Agility.
Distrust
- High point.
- Elusiveness.
- Strength.
- Running routes against press-man coverage.
- Coming back to the pass.
Interesting
- Since 2021, 53.85% of Mr. Scott’s targets against single coverage were deemed open, second among 2023 NFL Draft WR prospects, only behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Puka Nacua (BYU)
Trust
- Lateral movement YAC.
- Recognizing space in zone coverage.
- Running all routes.
- Strength.
- Hands.
- Scramble drill.
- Run blocking.
Distrust
- Press-man coverage.
- Off-man coverage.
- Acceleration.
- Speed.
- Burst.
- Lateral quickness.
Interesting
- Mr. Nacua was second among all draft-eligible WRs in Yards Per Routes Run with 3.53.
Cedric Tillman (Tennessee)
- Trust
- Start and stop quickness.
- Boxing out defender.
- Lateral movement coordination YAC.
- Blocking.
- Running against zone coverage.
- Hitch route against man coverage.
- Scramble drill.
- Slot WR position.
Distrust
- Running Dig route.
- Playing through contact.
- Creating separation against press-man coverage.
- Creating separation against off-man coverage.
- Hands.
- Speed.
- Lateral quickness.
- Boundary WR position.
Interesting
- When targeted, Mr. Tillman’s overall NFL passer rating is 93.7; however, when lined up in the slot position, his NFL passer rating skyrockets to 145.8.
Parker Washington (Penn State)
Trust
- Breaking tackles.
- Lateral coordination YAC.
- Lateral quickness.
- Body Control.
- Route running against zone coverage.
- Hands.
- Diving Catches.
- Elusiveness.
- Stop quickness.
- Focus.
- Catching while taking massive hits.
- Slot WR.
Distrust
- Top End Speed.
- Start quickness.
- Separating against man coverages.
- Boundary WR.
Interesting
- Mr. Washington caught 75% of his targets last season, which ranked ninth among NFL Draft WR prospects.
Xavier Hutchinson (Iowa State)
Trust
- Adjusting to the ball.
- Stop quickness.
- Setup defender on double moves.
- Lateral movement.
- Body Control.
- Hands.
- Slot WR position.
Distrust
- Speed.
- Creating separation on in and out-breaking routes.
- Start quickness.
- YAC.
- Elusiveness.
- Breaking tackles.
- Boundary WR position.
Interesting
- Last season, Mr. Hutchinson’s PFF Receiving Grade was 89.9, ranked fourth among draft-eligible WRs.
Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee)
Trust
- Top-end speed.
- Acceleration.
- Burst.
- Decision-making on option routes.
- Hitches.
- Movement routes.
- Blocking.
Distrust
- YAC.
- Lateral quickness.
- Tracking the ball on deep passes.
- Elusiveness.
- In-breaking and out-breaking routes.
- Strength.
- High point.
- Playing through contact.
- Press-man coverage.
Interesting
- Mr. Hyatt led all draft-eligible WRs in NFL Passer Rating when targeted at 159.54.
Rashee Rice (SMU)
Trust
- Movement routes. (shallow crossers, verticals, posts, overs)
- Acceleration.
- Adjust to back-shoulder throws.
- Straight-line YAC.
- Speed.
- Burst.
Distrust
- Lateral movement YAC.
- Elusiveness.
- High point.
- Routes requiring sinking hips.
- Stop then start quickness.
- Stop quickness.
Interesting
- Mr. Rice was third in receiving yards (1,344) in all FBS.
Trey Palmer (Nebraska)
Trust
- Deep routes.
- Late acceleration.
- Top-end speed.
- Straight-line YAC.
- Off-man coverage.
- Zone coverage.
Distrust
- Elusiveness.
- Hands.
- In-breaking routes.
- Lateral quickness.
- Playing through contact.
- Press-man coverage.
- Adjusting to the ball.
- Coming back to the ball.
- Stop quickness.
- Contested catches.
- High point.
Interesting
- Mr. Palmer averaged 3.47 yards per route run against zone coverages, ranking sixth among draft-eligible WRs.
Tre Tucker (Cincinnati)
Trust
- Out-breaking routes.
- Straight-line YAC.
- Intermediate routes against zone coverage.
- Off-man coverage.
- Slot WR.
- Burst.
- High point.
- Transition from catch to YAC.
Distrust
- Dig route.
- Elusiveness.
- Boundary WR.
- Press-man coverage.
- Lateral quickness.
- Stop quickness.
Interesting
- According to PFF, Mr. Tucker’s grade against man coverage was 75.1 but 58.6 against zone coverage.
Jalen Moreno-Cropper (Fresno State)
Trust
- Instant elusiveness after the catch.
- Smooth acceleration.
- Body Control.
- Stop quickness.
- Any route against zone coverage.
Distrust
- Hands.
- Strength.
- Press-man coverage.
- High point.
- Blocking.
- Contested catches.
Interesting
- Like Mr. Palmer, Mr. Moreno-Cropper averaged 3.47 yards per route run; however, his was against man coverage. He ranked ninth among draft-eligible WRs.
Bryce Ford-Wheaton (West Virginia)
Trust
- Acceleration.
- Speed.
- Lateral movement.
- All routes.
- Zone coverage.
- Off-man coverage.
- Stop quickness.
- Upper body flexibility.
Distrust
- Run good routes when play isn’t designed for him.
- Focus.
- Maturity.
- Plays through contact.
- Running against press-man coverage.
- Attacking the ball.
Interesting
- Mr. Ford-Wheaton caught 18 contested targets which ranked fourth among draft-eligible WRs.
Charlie Jones (Purdue)
Trust
- Contested catches.
- Zone coverage.
- Body Control.
- Hands.
- Stop quickness.
- High point.
- Blocking.
Distrust
- Creating separation.
- All man coverages.
- YAC.
- Speed.
- Burst.
- Playing through contact.
- Boundary WR position.
- Slot WR position.
Interesting
- Mr. Jones’ 22 contested receptions ranked first in all of the FBS.
Andrei Iosivas (Princeton)
Trust
- Straight-line YAC.
- Top-end speed.
- Acceleration.
- In-breaking routes vs. zone coverage.
- Off-man coverage.
- Play through contact.
- Strength.
- Boundary WR position.
- Adjusting to the pass.
Distrust
- Elusive YAC.
- Burst.
- Lateral quickness.
- Route running.
- Hands.
- Slot WR position.
- Attacking the pass.
- Scramble drill.
- High point.
Interesting
- Mr. Iosivas caught an outstanding 68.8% of his contested targets.
Nikko Remigio (Fresno State)
Trust
- Reading zone coverages.
- All man coverages.
- Scramble drill.
- Burst.
- Slot WR position.
- Elusive YAC.
- Lateral quickness.
- Hands.
- Running all routes.
- Stop quickness.
Distrust
- Top-end speed.
- Boundary WR position.
- Contested catches.
- High point.
Interesting
- Mr. Remigio forced 16 missed tackles after a reception.
Conclusion
Remember, the KOP rankings are rare because it is timeless ranking. You can always go back to the KOP rankings to understand better what’s going on with a specific player. KOP is the best for “Living in the Future,” your primary skill to succeed in Fantasy Football. Trust the process; the keen observer of the human experience can “Live in the Future.”
I hope I was helpful and insightful with the KOP WR rankings. If you have any questions regarding my comments, please don’t hesitate to contact me at @crazy_kirt. Thank you for your time and support, and have a good day.
